NL Wild-Card Series Predictions: Expert Picks for Mets-Padres and Cardinals-Phillies

Which teams will be moving on to the National League Division Series next week? Our MLB writers make their picks.

This year’s National League playoff field exemplifies why the postseason expanded to 12 teams.

First, there are the Phillies (87–75), who under the former 10-team format would have fallen just short of a wild-card berth. Instead, they earned the No. 6 seed and returned to the postseason for the first time since 2011. The Mets, winners of 101 games this season, still had to settle for a wild-card matchup, but unlike in previous years, the fate of their remarkable campaign won’t depend on one winner-take-all game at the start of the playoffs.

But just because both teams benefit from the new system doesn’t mean they’ll be the ones moving on to the NLDS next week. The Mets host a talented Padres club with a starting rotation that rivals their own, and the Phillies need to get through a Cardinals team motivated to win another ring for Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina in their final season.

So, which teams will advancing to the Division Series to take on either the 111-win  Dodgers or the defending-champion Braves? Our SI MLB writers make their picks.

Mets closer Edwin Díaz struck out 118 batter in 62 innings this year :: Wendell Cruz/USA TODAY Sports

Tom Verducci

Matchup: Cardinals vs. Phillies

Prediction: Phillies in three games

Philadelphia is dangerous because it has the edge in starting pitching and is riding a wave after finally conquering its September demons. The Cardinals are far superior on defense and baserunning, which could ultimately swing the series in their favor if the Phillies give them extra outs.

Matchup: Mets vs. Padres

Prediction: Mets in three games

This series is closer than you think. San Diego is the one team that can match New York’s starting pitching. And the Mets were 4–5 in September with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer starting, with the duo throwing 100 pitches only twice in those nine starts (and never more than 101). Juan Soto and Manny Machado are elite talents. But Edwin Díaz available for multiple innings is the difference.

Stephanie Apstein

Matchup: Cardinals vs. Phillies

Prediction: Cardinals in two games

I have to take the team that might employ the top two NL MVP finishers over the team that went 11–14 in September and almost gave away its playoff spot.

Matchup: Mets vs. Padres

Prediction: Mets in three games

The Mets’ use of Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom here is a huge problem for them in future series, but first it’s a huge problem for the Padres.

Albert Pujols ranked second in the majors with 18 home runs and a 1.103 OPS in the second half of the season :: Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports

Emma Baccellieri

Matchup: Cardinals vs. Phillies

Prediction: Cardinals in three games

Maybe we don’t get one more Adam Wainwright start at Busch Stadium, but I’m going to bet we get at least one more Albert Pujols home run. (Even if Phillies’ first two projected starters are righties.)

Matchup: Mets vs. Padres

Prediction: Mets in three games

With the caveat that anything can happen in a series this short, it’s very hard to pick against a Mets roster this good.

Claire Kuwana

Matchup: Cardinals vs. Phillies

Prediction: Cardinals in three games

Albert Pujols has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball since the All-Star break and has provided more pop to a Cardinals lineup that already featured MVP candidates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Meanwhile, reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper has slumped since he returned from the injured list in late August, posting a .227/.325/.352 slash line in 35 games.

Matchup: Mets vs. Padres

Prediction: Mets in three games

The Mets are the more talented team, but a soft schedule in September did not treat the Mets well. They lost two games to the Nationals, were swept by the Cubs and lost to both the A’s and the Pirates at least once. If they continue to play down to their competition, this series is not going to be an easy one for them to win.

Wheeler went 12–7 with a 2.82 ERA in 26 starts this season, but he missed about a month with a right forearm injury :: Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

Will Laws

Matchup: Cardinals vs. Phillies

Prediction: Phillies in two games

The Cardinals don’t have a shutdown, swing-and-miss starter lined up who can match Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler if those guys start throwing zeros—and Wheeler has yet to allow an earned run in 13 innings against St. Louis this season, so that seems quite possible. 

Matchup: Mets vs. Padres

Prediction: Mets in three games

A matchup worthy of the NLCS. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer didn’t finish the season on a high note, but it’s hard to imagine them not coming through in the playoffs. The Padres’ lineup should be much better than it’s been, but for whatever reason the whole has been less than the sum of its parts. Scherzer, deGrom and Chris Bassitt aren’t the guys to get that problem sorted out against.

Matt Martell

Matchup: Cardinals vs. Phillies

Prediction: Cardinals in three games

It’s true that few pitching staff’s have a better one-two punch than Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, but the Cardinals only have to beat one of them to force a Game 3 matchup with lefthander Ranger Suárez. And, as Emma pointed out in her series preview column, no team has been better this year than St. Louis at hitting lefties (126 OPS+). Another thing to note, courtesy of Cardinals beat writer Jeff Jones: Wheeler has made three starts since missing a month with right forearm tendonitis, and his highest pitch count in any of those three outings was 77. Even if he pitches well, how long will he be able to go? Look for St. Louis to drive up Wheeler’s pitch count and then jump on the Philadelphia bullpen, which had the NL’s worst relief ERA (5.10) in the second half.

Matchup: Mets vs. Padres

Prediction: Padres in three games

I am worried about Jacob deGrom. Blisters are no joke for pitchers, and he really hasn’t been himself since his Sept. 13 loss to the Cubs. Most concerning is his sudden susceptibility to the longball. He’s allowed six home runs over his last four starts, tied for the most he’s allowed in a four-start span in his career.

Manny Machado led all National League players with 7.4 fWAR :: Orlando Ramirez/USA TODAY Sports

Nick Selbe

Matchup: Cardinals vs. Phillies

Prediction: Phillies in two games

St. Louis’ MVP-caliber corner infield tandem of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado has cooled off a bit at precisely the wrong time. Goldschmidt has had a meager .716 OPS with just two home runs since the start of September, while Arenado’s OPS is only .649 over the same span. Philadelphia’s starters for the first two games of the series—Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler—have each been sharp.

Matchup: Mets vs. Padres

Prediction: Mets in three games

This is a pick largely because, if the Mets blow a 10.5-game division lead and lose in the wild-card round, I fear for the wellbeing of their fans. Then again, that would be quite the Metsy thing to do. Should be a fun series.