Four Things to Know About Division Series

Also in this edition of the Five-Tool Newsletter: why the Phillies will be without David Robertson.

The best thing about today is that we get to watch four playoff games. The second best part? We finally can see the top four teams (two from each league) in postseason action.

Indeed, because of the new 12-team format, the Dodgers, Braves, Astros and Yankees all received first-round byes. It’ll be interesting to see how much of an advantage they have over their opponents, who couldn’t rest their players or reset their pitching staffs.

Let’s run through four things you should know—one for each of the top four teams—heading into the Division Series.

1. No team has been more dominant over the last decade than the Dodgers, who are playing in their 10th straight postseason. They’ve won three pennants and one World Series in that span, and this year’s team could be the best of them all. They won 111 games, five more than they won last season, when they tied the previous record, set in 2019. Yes, that means they’ve won at least 106 games in each of the last three full seasons.

It’s hard to point to one specific thing that makes this team so great (they won 111 games!), but the area I want to focus on here is their pitching. Based on adjusted ERA, a metric that standardizes ERA based on the league average and ballpark factors, this is the best pitching staff (150 ERA+) the Dodgers have had in their 139-year history.

2. Aside from Aaron Judge, no player in baseball has had a better contract year than Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson. The first pick in the 2015 MLB draft, Swanson has improved offensively every full season since his underwhelming rookie year in ‘17. This season, he set career highs in hits (177), runs (99), RBIs (96), stolen bases (18), OPS+ (115), total bases (286) and WAR (5.7). He also played in all 162 games.

3. Jose Altuve just completed his best season since his MVP-winning campaign in 2017. The 32-year-old Astros second baseman slashed .300/.387/.533 with 28 home runs and a 160 OPS+, which was third best in the American League, behind only Judge (211) and Houston teammate Yordan Alvarez (187).

4. The Yankees are going to need to get some offensive contributions outside of Judge if they are going to make good on the World Series promise they showed in the first half of the season. Gleyber Torres is the one to keep an eye on in this series. He was one of the worst hitters in the league during August (.464 OPS) but turned things around over the final month of the season. Across 24 games in September and October, Torres hit .323/.389/.573 with six home runs and 25 RBIs.

Have any questions or comments for our team? Send a note to mlb@si.com.

1. THE OPENER

Justin Verlander will pitch for the Astros today against the Mariners in Game 1 :: Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports

“This postseason is more unpredictable than ever because of the wild-card series replacing the wild-card game and because of scheduling quirks caused by the lockout. The changes will have a profound effect on pitching …”

That’s Tom Verducci, writing in his story from yesterday morning previewing the most interesting unknown element of this year’s playoffs.

How the New MLB Postseason Format Impacts Pitching by Tom Verducci
Starting pitching dominated in the wild-card series. Should we expect that to continue for the rest of the playoffs?

2. ICYMI

First up on the ledger of our recent stories … predictions!

Division Series Predictions: Expert Picks for ALDS and NLDS by SI MLB Staff
Which two teams from each league will be advancing to the Championship Series? Here are our picks.

And just for fun … let’s check in on how good (or bad) our writers did in picking the wild-card series:

Playoff Predictions Standings:

1. Matt Martell: 3–1
2. Will Laws: 3–1
3. Nick Selbe: 2–2
4. Emma Baccellieri: 2–2
5. Claire Kuwana: 1–3
6. Stephanie Apstein: 1–3
7. Tom Verducci: 1–3

Tiebreaker goes to the person with more correct picks for both series winner and series length.

I’m in the lead now, but it’s early, and my track record is downright awful, so keep it here to see whether I can collapse like the Angels did this season!

We also previewed the keys to each series:

• Emma Baccellieri focused on Braves-Phillies
• Nick Selbe broke down Astros-Mariners
• Stephanie Apstein outlined Yankees-Guardians
• Will Laws examined on Dodgers-Padres

3. WORTH NOTING from Matt Martell

Yankees utilityman Oswaldo Cabrera made his big league debut Aug. 17 as the roster dealt with a number of injuries to key players (DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton, among others). Since then, he’s earned an everyday role in the New York outfield. His defense out there has been exceptional—nine defensive runs saved, seven assists—especially for someone with so little outfield experience. In the minors, Cabrera played just three games in right field and one in left.

At the plate, he hit .309 with five home runs and a 1.000 OPS over his final 20 games of the regular season. If he keeps that up on the national stage, he could emerge as the breakout star of the postseason.

4. W2W4 from Matt Martell

The Dodgers host the Padres in the final game of the day, with first pitch set for 9:37 p.m. ET, in Los Angeles. Everyone tuning in will be paying attention to all the stars on the field, and rightfully so. This series, though, could come down to the bottom of the San Diego lineup, specifically Ha-Seong Kim, Trent Grisham and Austin Nola, who went a combined 19-for-142 (.134) against the Dodgers this season.

However, in the wild-card series against a very good Mets pitching staff, that trio hit .400 with four extra-base hits. They’ll need to keep that up if the Padres are to have a shot.

5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri

The Phillies announced Tuesday morning that they will be without David Robertson in the NLDS—a blow to a bullpen that is already somewhat inconsistent at best. The reason? He jumped up to celebrate Bryce Harper’s home run Saturday and strained his calf. (The 37-year-old righty is “devastated,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said.) What a reminder of the perils of aging.

That’s all from us today. We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow. In the meantime, share this newsletter with your friends and family, and tell them to sign up at SI.com/newsletters. If you have any questions or comments, shoot us an email at mlb@si.com.