Ranking the Top Five Starting Pitchers in Free Agency, With Signing Predictions

Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw are among the starters off the board, but there are still plenty of good arms to sign.

It’s been a great first month of free agency for starting pitchers. After Chris Bassitt agreed to a three-year, $63 million contract with the Blue Jays on Monday night, 20 starters so far have signed deals for a combined total of more than $745 million. Fourteen of those 20 were ranked among our initial top 50 free agent rankings, including future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, and Jacob deGrom, who is the best pitcher in baseball when healthy.

But this doesn’t mean the fun is done just yet. There is still plenty of starting pitching talent for the teams that missed out during the initial frenzy.

So, after resetting the market on Monday with our updated top 25 free agents, let’s take a look at the top five starters still available and make predictions about where they might end up.

A few notes: Each player’s listed age reflects how old he will be during the 2023 season, and we’re using FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement. This page will be updated throughout the offseason as players sign with teams. 

5. Corey Kluber, SP

Age: 37 | Former Team: Rays | Updated Prediction: Dodgers

Here in the top five pitchers, we arrive at a new tier of available starters: mid-rotation caliber players in their late 30s. Kluber proved to be more than capable with diminished stuff, as he made it through 2022 fully healthy, hammering the strike zone to the tune of a minuscule 1.2 BB/9 walk rate. He’d make a good depth addition for a contending team looking for one more serviceable starter on a short-term deal.

4. Ross Stripling, SP

Age: 33 | Former Team: Blue Jays | Updated Prediction: Royals

To date, 14 starting pitchers have agreed to contracts worth at least $10 million per year. After spending time shuffling between the rotation and bullpen, Stripling has shown enough to join that group. He posted career bests across the board (3.01 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 1.02 WHIP) over 134⅓ innings in 2022, with a career-low 3.7% walk rate.

Syndergaard is still a capable starter, but he doesn’t overwhelm hitters with velocity anymore :: Kyle Ross/USA TODAY Sports

3. Noah Syndergaard, SP

Age: 30 | Former Team: Phillies | Updated Prediction: Red Sox

For a guy who’s lost five ticks off his fastball since Tommy John surgery, Syndergaard acquitted himself pretty well this year; He at least proved he isn’t as powerless without his heater as Marvel’s Thor is without his hammer. Syndergaard essentially had to relearn how to pitch as someone with the arsenal of a mere mortal—and he posted a better ERA (3.94) than he did in his final presurgery season (4.28), even while spending the second half of the year with Philadelphia’s bandbox as his home park. The lack of swing and miss in his game will keep some teams away, though: Syndergaard’s 6.35 K/9 rate ranked 96th out of 105 pitchers with at least 120 IP. Given how strong the market has been for starting pitchers, Syndergaard should garner a multiyear deal, though certainly not at the $21 million rate he earned on the one-year deal for ’22.

2. Nathan Eovaldi, SP

Age: 33 | Former Team: Red Sox | Updated Prediction: Orioles

Eovaldi is in a similar boat as Bassitt, though he is coming off a worse season. Given the two-year, $25 million guarantee that Andrew Heaney (who’s a year younger and also coming off an injured year) got from the Rangers, Eovaldi should be in line for a nice contract wherever he signs. It will be interesting to see whether he opts for a one-year deal to reestablish his value at what it was in 2021, when he made 32 starts with a 3.75 ERA and 2.79 FIP.

SI’s Tom Verducci described Rodón as “another version of Robbie Ray last year.” :: Kelley L Cox/USA TODAY Sports

VERDUCCI: What We’re Hearing About Rodón at Winter Meetings.

1. Carlos Rodón, SP

Age: 30 | Former Team: Giants | Updated Prediction: Yankees

Rodón reenters free agency for the second straight year as an All-Star and top-six Cy Young vote recipient—and this time, he comes without the late-season elbow soreness that limited his price tag last winter (though that led him to bet on himself, which worked). He was MLB’s second-most valuable pitcher this year by fWAR (6.2) after leading the majors with 12 strikeouts per 9 IP and a 2.25 FIP. We’re thinking the former No. 3 pick will draw the largest total contract of any free-agent pitcher this year, topping even Jacob deGrom’s $185 million contract with the Rangers.

Top 25 Free Agent Rankings: Complete List With Predictions Here.