Julio Rodriguez’s Home Run Derby Defeat Was Still a Win for the Mariners

Seattle’s young superstar set a Derby record despite his semifinal exit, and perhaps more importantly, set a thrilling tone for the future in front of his home fans.

SEATTLE – The barrage started near the end of the quarterfinals, as Julio Rodriguez strode to the plate at his T-Mobile Park home office and stepped into the batter’s box. The crowd considered the setting—homegrown Mariners superstar, Home Run Derby participant, one year after the same event propelled him toward superstardom but amid an iffy second season, at least relative to his first.

Oh, how that setting amplified the stakes. His “home” version of the Home Run Derby cut both ways, lending familiarity and adding pressure, too. The crowd rose, unsurely at first, in pockets of cautious optimism, in a place where optimism generally borders on delusion.

Rodriguez went without a hat, or a headband; proof, perhaps, of the comforts home presented him Monday night. He swung and swung; the motion compact, smooth, consistent and bordering on poetic. With each swing, more of the crowd stood, more cheered and more phones were hurriedly pulled from so many pockets. Then the chants started. Ju-li-o! Ju-li-o! Ju-li-o!

Julio Rodriguez gave Mariners fans their money’s worth of moonshots at the Home Run Derby :: Ted Warren/AP

Hit doesn’t do his quarterfinal display justice. J-Rod smacked. J-Rod sailed. J-Rod bludgeoned baseballs to right and right-center, balls that sailed over the heads of kids shagging fly balls in pink T-shirts and peppered the stands with souvenirs. J-Rod launched—baseballs over fences, as if his bat was covered in propellant; interest in this Derby, which started somewhere between muted and milquetoast; and, every Mariners fan watching hoped, the second half of his/their season.

By the time his initial turn ended, Rodriguez had hit 41 home runs out of his home ballpark. Comfort, indeed. Teammates mobbed him near home plate, fanning Rodriguez with neon pink and neon green towels. His tally set the mark for most-ever dingers slugged in one Derby round. It also lifted more than a few spirits, as Mariners fans stood and all fans joined them, everyone clapping and roaring and bumping fists. As far as positive signs in this Seattle baseball season, this marked one of the most prominent. Whether it portends more remains to be seen.

JULIO RODRIGUEZ PUT ON A SHOW 🤩

41 home runs in the first round 🚀 pic.twitter.com/JrI4Ajag0p

— ESPN (@espn) July 11, 2023

Count all wins, right? Especially here. For the locals and their baseball fandom, a second-consecutive Derby fireworks display from one of baseball’s youngest and most electric superstars certainly qualified. The competition’s first pitch wouldn’t be lobbed until close to 5:30 p.m., but by 1:45, before the gates were even open, the line of Derby ticket-holders stretched not just down the block, but around the entire perimeter of T-Mobile that can be accessed by pedestrians.

The last time baseball held its annual showcase here was 2001. With one playoff appearance for the Mariners since (last season), Seattleites apparently didn’t want to miss a second of elite baseball.

Seamheads from all over were introduced to delicious Seattle hot dogs (topped with cream cheese and grilled onions). Parking cost four times what it typically would for a Mariners game, with some lots charging upwards of $200. Clouds hung overhead, the kind that hinted at colder air that might cut down on homer tallies. Half the shelves of merchandise stores were empty nearly four hours before the event started. 

Among the crowd were reality television stars from MTV’s The Challenge, an American Idol winner on hand to sing the national anthem and a few dozen fans with golden tickets to the white couches laid out on the field near the dugouts. Scalpers utilized motorized scooters for efficiency. TV crews roamed nearby streets hunting for scenics and stand-up locations. Fans booed the Astros mascot like he “relocated” the freaking Sonics, while the Mariners Moose received a hero’s ovation. There was a stage for the participants and their introductions, complete with shooting flames and billowing smoke. One dude wore a huge green chain around his neck; another guy, a The Sandlot jersey; another, a Mermen one; a woman, a hoodie that screamed DON’T WAKE ME UP YET.

The last one spoke to the dream round Rodriguez gifted the home crowd. With Ken Griffey Jr., the Derby’s only three-time winner, in the house, generations of fans sat side-by-side, Griffey jerseys and Rodriguez jerseys intermingling. But the alarm went off soon enough. Maybe no one should have fanned Mr. J-Rod Show after the quarters, because he certainly cooled in the semifinals, his total (20) less than half his first time out. His opponent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., also struggled, but managed to tie Rodriguez on his final semifinal swing. Having secured a bonus round, Guerrero Jr. had one minute to hit one home run. He only needed 15 seconds to move on to the finals.

Still, most watching the Home Run Derby cannot fathom what even that one round meant here. This is the Mariners, a franchise that does a lot of things right, that has had no shortage of superstars or epic moments and yet also a distinct and soul-numbing record for most of this century in failing to put it all together for longer than a month or two. The banners hanging up above right field—five playoff seasons in nearly half-a-centurty of professional baseball—are proof. In that one Derby round, Rodriguez gave them hope. Again.

The current Derby format took shape in 2015, when officials swapped in an eight-player, single-elimination bracket with timed rounds rather than a number of “outs” recorded. The amount of time changed in recent years, reduced from five minutes to three minutes for the first two rounds and two minutes for the final showdown, when competitors resemble golfers who have launched too many bombs at the range. There’s also a 30-second bonus round that competitors can reach, if they smash at least two home runs beyond a certain distance (in this case, 440 feet). And each participant can use one 45-second timeout in any round except the bonus one.

The prize: $1 million to the winner, $2.5 million doled out overall.

Last year’s iteration marked an enticing subplot for this year’s version. It was at last year’s Derby that Julio Rodriguez announced his immense skill set to the wider sports world en route to snagging American League Rookie of the Year honors and ending the longest playoff drought in professional sports.

The J-Rod Show, as the young superstar is known, went international that night at Dodger Stadium. Rodriguez hit 32 home runs in the first round alone, while bludgeoning nine shots over 440 feet. He crushed 31 more in the semifinals to upset Pete Alonso, a Derby favorite this year and last, before falling to Juan Soto, 19–18, in the final. Still, his tally (81) marked the second-highest ever, beyond only Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 2019 total of 91.

But after the star turn, the optimism and a spring training chalked full of magazine cover shoots—he was, after all, the youngest AL All-Star outfielder since Joe DiMaggio—Rodriguez has struggled so far in 2023. Batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage are all down for a center fielder who finished seventh in last season’s MVP voting, although J-Rod has still hit 13 home runs and recorded 49 RBIs.

Rodriguez would have been part of the All Star festivities, regardless, as part of a quartet of All-Star ambassadors who played or play in Seattle. He joined Ken Griffey Jr., Felix Hernandez and Edgar Martinez in that group, a Mount Rushmore of Mariners, missing only Ichiro and a handful of quibble-able players who weren’t selected. But the good news for local baseball fans started to roll in recently, as Rodriguez made the Derby participant list and, weeks later, the AL roster for tomorrow’s game.

Worth noting: Rodriguez struggled early last season, too, yet throughout, whether slumping or slugging, his infectious energy and youthful exuberance made watching him a show within The Show. The fans who lined up before the gates opened, snaking the entire length of T-Mobile’s perimeter, surely hoped for exactly that, a show of some sort, the bigger the better. Only this year, the spectacle would take place in front of a home-ish crowd. For what it’s worth, he tabbed the same old friend, Franmy Pena, to lob pitches to him. 

The bracket release caused the bulging of more than a few eyeballs, while elevating the stakes toward a cloudy Seattle sky. Rodriguez received the seventh seed, and a juicy first-round matchup—juicy, that is, for everyone except perhaps him. He had drawn Alonso, the oddsmakers favorite, for a Derby rematch—and, of course, they would duel last in the first round.

Thus began rampant speculation, especially for the locals. Only three previous Derby winners triumphed at their home park (Ryne Sandberg, Cubs, 1990; Todd Frazier, 2015, Reds; Bryce Harper, ’18, Nationals). Could Rodriguez become the fourth and the youngest-ever Derby winner all in one night? He certainly considered the possibility. The seeding was released while the Mariners were in Baltimore, and when reporters asked Rodriguez about the matchup, his widening smile said more than any actual words he used.

Julio Rodriguez embraced the pressure and expectations that came with performing in front of his home crowd :: Ted Warren/AP

In some quarters, the disenchanted lobbed criticism at the field’s overall starpower. No Soto. No Aaron Judge. No Mike Trout. No Shohei Ohtani. No Ronald Acuña Jr. Only two participants this year had ever competed previously. Only three competitors could claim 100 career home runs, compared to seven of eight who could say that last year. Only Alonso had both.

Just under Alonso as the odds-on favorite, pundits liked Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Luis Robert, followed by … Rodriguez.

The lineup wasn’t the only concern, either. Yes, home runs across MLB took an upswing this season—up from 1.07 per game to 1.16—owing to livelier baseballs designed to lower drag coefficients. Even with the uptick, the average still fell below 2020 and ’21. Beyond that, the sluggers would try to smash home runs in a park where, legend and statistics insist, offensive baseball begins at an atmospheric disadvantage. This is often the hottest week in a Seattle summer. But an hour before the first pitch, the temperature was 71 degrees. Many attendees wore jeans and sweatshirts.

Could J-Rod save them?

And, if not, could Alonso become the second three-time Derby champ in MLB history? The setting enticed there, too, because the only superstar who can make that claim played the majority of his career here, crushing dingers and wearing his cap backward. Griffey, of course. In Alonso’s first Derby victory (2019), he topped Guerrero Jr., who finished second and didn’t make a Derby return until this season. This season, Alonso ranks third in MLB in home runs, despite hitting only four since June 18. He also lost eight games to injury—and it seemed fair to speculate whether that specific injury, to his left wrist, would impact his ability to bludgeon in later rounds.

The crowd found out soon enough. Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox), Randy Arozarena (Rays), Guerrero (Blue Jays) and Ju-li-o advanced to the semifinals. Although the most interesting part of the quarters, beyond Julio tying the 41 mark, was Adley Rutschman (Orioles) slugging from both sides in the same round. Alas, versatility didn’t count for his tally against Robert, who edged Rutschman, 28–27.

Arozarena and Guerrero advanced to the championship round, as more than a few local fans or traffic-weary crowd members began streaming to the exits. The early departing missed one heck of a show. Guerrero went first, his final round a solid flex, as he spanked 25 home runs. Arozarena followed, his tally climbing and climbing until it reached 23 soon before the clock ran out. “It’s unbelievable,” said Guerrero, now $1 million richer and adding to his family’s illustrious slugging history.

Thus, nearly a week of this particular brand of baseball that locals aren’t exactly accustomed to continued, shifting toward tomorrow night’s culmination, the first All-Star Game held here since 2001. After the HBCU Classic, the Futures Game (won, 5–0, by the National League), the Celebrity Softball Game, the MLB draft, the fan fests and the Derby, perhaps M’s diehards glimpsed the glorious future of Seattle baseball, a constellation of stars injecting much-needed excitement—and for a lot longer than this week. Perhaps the skeptics remained at the forefront. Either way, the electricity culled from four days of festivities, all hope, will carry into the season’s second half.

Did it mean anything? Mean a lot? Tough to say. But all wins count, remember, especially where wins are typically sparse.