Scherzer’s Redemption, Abreu Suspension Loom Over Enticing ALCS Game 7

After the Rangers’ 9–2 win over the Astros in Game 6, the fate of two pitchers may hold the key to Monday’s American League Championship Series finale.

Lucky us. It turns out all the cacophony over the past three days—the divining of intentions of a hit by pitch, the ninth-inning homer by an October legend that turned defeat into victory, the ridiculousness of a suspension hanging over the deciding of a pennant, the “baseball justice” levied with a ferocious grand slam … every last loud crash of cymbals, timpani and emotions, all of it—was just the warmup band prepping us for the spectacular headliner.

Max Scherzer, hired gun par excellence, but coming off a start coated in iron oxide, takes the ball in ALCS Game 7 on Monday. It will be the eighth time he pitches in a winner-take-all game, more than any pitcher in history. At 39 years and 89 days, he could become the oldest starter ever to win a sudden death game.

If that’s not enough drama for you to find out how the American League pennant is decided, please see your cardiologist.

“He’s going to probably take 16 shots of P4 and he’s going to be same old Max,” said Texas catcher Jonah Heim, referring to Scherzer’s energy drink of choice. “I'm excited to see what he does.”

A series in which the road team has won every game comes down to a recovering Scherzer taking the ball at Minute Maid Park against the Astros.

In other words, this is a cover tune of a classic.

The 2019 World Series, a series in which the road team won every game, came down to a recovering Scherzer taking the ball at Minute Maid Park against the Astros.

Scherzer’s Nationals won that game, 5–2, coming from behind against Houston after a ragged Scherzer—that time it was the neck, this time it’s his arm—gave up two runs over five innings.

Scherzer quickly bolted from the Rangers’ clubhouse after Texas arranged this Game 7 heaven by blasting the Astros in Game 6 on Sunday, 9–2. Jack Morris in the 1991 World Series is the only Game 7 starter who insisted on talking to the media after Game 6. Black Jack opened a window to his baseball soul when he marched into the interview room and quoted Marvin Gaye: “Let’s get it on.” He threw 10 shutout innings.

Here’s what we do know about Scherzer heading into Game 7, other than mainlining beta alanine and creatine: His stuff is good, even after missing 36 days with a strain to a muscle behind and under his right armpit. In ALCS Game 3, his first start back, Scherzer averaged 94.1 mph on his fastball, his fifth-highest velocity in 28 games this year.

“His fastball was there,” said Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien. “His [velocity] was there. That’s what I look at first from a guy who’s been hurt. He was at 95, topped out at 96, I believe. That’s Max Scherzer.

“When he has that good fastball, it allows his other weapons to work. So, it’s good to see his arm feeling good. And, if he’s got a good fastball, he’s on it. Like I said, he has a ton of weapons to get you out.”

Said Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux: “What I liked was how the ball was coming out of his hand. He had good velocity, good late life. And the key for me was he threw 63 pitches and the stuff was still there. He had more in the tank.”

Over his career, Scherzer is 7–8 with a 3.80 ERA in 28 postseason games.  :: Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports

Texas manager Bruce Bochy pulled Scherzer after four innings because the Rangers were down 5–0 and Scherzer was hanging sliders over the middle of the plate. His command, not his stuff, suffered from the downtime. Scherzer essentially threw a rehab start in the middle of the ALCS. This time, having knocked off some of that rust, his command should be improved.

“I mean, it’s Max Scherzer,” Heim said, “so you’re going to expect greatness whenever he steps on the mound. We’re going to draw up a good game plan. I know he’s going to come ready.”

The Astros have the pitcher in better form, Cristian Javier. Batters are hitting .111 against Javier this postseason (4-for-36), including .091 against his invisi-ball fastball (2-for-22). He has thrown 100 fastballs this postseason and given up two hits. The Rangers knew it was coming. They hit against foam balls shot from a $15,000 pitching machine before seeing Javier in Game 2 (to simulate the weird lack of drop on his heater). And still they went 2-for-15 against it. Hitters must try to swing at the top of the baseball if they have any hope of hitting it, because the pitch holds it plane so well the ball is three to five inches higher than they expect.

“No,” corrected Donnie Ecker, a Rangers hitting coach, “you have to swing three to four baseballs higher than where you think it is.”

The Astros likely must play the game shorthanded—without their best setup reliever, Bryan Abreu. The righthander was suspended for two games by MLB, a pro forma move after the umpires’ report from Game 5 stated that Abreu intentionally and dangerously (up and in) threw at Rangers right fielder Adolis García.

The optics were bad; García had hit a three-run homer his previous at bat. (If you think his bat-slamming celebration angered the Astros, you’re about five to 10 years behind the times. That was nothing given where the game is today. The Astros had no problem with it.)

But if you think Abreu would put another runner on base in a two-run game that puts the winner one game from the World Series, you’re either naive to baseball protocol or work for the Rangers. Prioritizing some petty issue over an LCS game in the balance? Don’t see it.

“He looked right at him and threw right at him,” said Semien, who does happen to work for the Rangers. “They’ll see that in the appeal.”

What matters from a compromised competition standpoint is only what the umpires think. They reacted hastily in taking an ace setup reliever (Abreu), a cleanup hitter (García) and a manager (Houston manager Dusty Baker) off the field in an LCS game (all were ejected). Worse, based on their report, Abreu has little chance of being available for Game 7.

Abreu could succeed in getting his two-game suspension reduced to one game— reductions happen all the time—but, according to one MLB source, virtually no chance of getting away with no suspension. That would be a repudiation of the umpire’s judgment and MLB’s firmly established safety concern about head-high fastballs deemed to be intentional.

In the past, players could slow-play the appeal process to remain on the field. That’s how Chase Utley continued to play in the 2015 postseason after he was suspended two games for his infamous slide that broke the leg of Mets second baseman Rubén Tejada. Players had 14 days to arrange a hearing. Utley never did serve the suspension. It was dropped the following March as MLB reviewed and changed slide protocols into bases.

But in the last CBA, players and owners agreed to speed the appeal process. Hearings must take place within 48 hours of when a suspension is levied. That now looks like a mistake, because a suspension in the postseason carries a vastly higher per-game cost than in the regular season, though they are adjudicated the same way.

Start with this: The idea that someone would be suspended at all in the postseason for intentionally hitting someone is crazy. It never happened before. You take revenge in spring training or in the regular season if you have a beef, not when you’re fighting for a pennant. (Still don’t see the beef in this case.)

Now add the idea that you must speed the hearing process on a very borderline “offense,” and you are affecting the outcome of a championship far too much in relation to the infraction.

Until Abreu, the four most recent postseason suspensions were to Yuli Gurriel in the 2017 World Series for offensive gestures (his seven-game ban did not take effect until the next regular season), Utley in ’15 (suspension never served), Jay Howell for using pine tar in his glove in the 1988 NLCS and Bert Campaneris for throwing his bat at pitcher Lerrin LaGrow in the ’72 ALCS. Campaneris was suspended “for the remainder of the ALCS,” which turned into a three-game penalty as the series went five games.

The Howell penalty is instructive because of how Game 7 could be affected here. Based on precedent, Howell should have been suspended for as many as five games. But then commissioner Bart Giamatti issued only a three-game ban because of competitive integrity.

“While there must be no doubt as to my view of the seriousness of this infraction in the course of the league championship season,” Giamatti wrote in his decision, “I have attempted to balance all the elements of this decision.

“I do not want to see a championship ultimately decided for fans and teammates—if the LCS goes seven games—by the accident of one man’s mistake. Therefore, Mr. Howell would be eligible to pitch should there be a seventh game.”

Where is the attempt now “to balance all the elements?” Game 7 of the World Series is the only game with more importance than Game 7 of the LCS. And Abreu could be banned from this game because of an “accident of one man’s mistake” that is probably not worth a suspension at all. The punishment is overly severe in terms of the “crime.”

The process of suspensions in postseason needs serious review so that, as Giamatti understood, the deciding of championships is not overly affected. The suspension nonsense already has made an impact. Baker used Abreu in Game 6 without knowing what his status would be for Game 7.

Me? I would not be confident Abreu will be available for Game 7 and would have used Abreu for two innings in Game 6 to keep the game close. Baker hedged his bets and lifted Abreu after one inning and turned the ninth inning of a 4–2 game over to Rafael Montero and Ryne Stanek with the Texas lineup about to turn over. Five runs later, including a grand slam by García, the game was such a blowout that Bochy pulled his closer, José Leclerc, keeping him well rested for Game 7.

“I think that’s just baseball justice,” Heim said about the García homer. “I mean, they’re booing him all game, and it kind of puts the game on ice. So, I don’t know how you can boo somebody for getting hit.”

Abreu’s status for Game 7 is up in the air as he appeals a two-game suspension :: Erik Williams/USA TODAY Sports

About his quandary regarding the status of his best setup reliever, Baker said, “That could be a huge blow [in Game 7]. I thought about using him for two innings today, had the decision been made. But you’d hate to have the fine and suspension go past [Game 7] and then I wouldn’t have Abreu had he gone two innings.

“So, you wish you had a decision. You wish you had some final decision about his status. So we took a shot there. Hopefully some of this will be postponed, and we’ll have him [for Game 7], as well.”

The script may not be original, but we will gladly take a 2019 World Series Game 7 redux. Scherzer takes the ball again in Game 7 at Minute Maid Park with the world wondering what he’s got in his tank and whether a home team can win even one darn game.

Scherzer’s place is secure as one of the great pitchers of his generation. But legends are made or squandered on nights like this. Jose Altuve, for instance, added to his reputation as a clutch player with his game-winning homer in Game 5, his unprecedented third to win a postseason game as late as the ninth inning.

Scherzer’s big-game reputation is not as sparkling as teammate Nathan Eovaldi, who with another gem in Game 6 is 8–3 with a 2.87 ERA in 15 games. Scherzer is 7–8 with a 3.80 ERA in 28 games. His teams are 9–14 when he starts.

In his seven winner-take-all games (four starts), Scherzer is 0–1 with the same ERA as overall: 3.80. His teams are 5–2 in those games.

As prolific as his career has been, Scherzer does not have a huge signature postseason game. He has one win in a possible clincher, but that was in the 2012 ALCS when his Tigers already led the Yankees three games to none. He has one win facing elimination, outpitching Rich Hill in the Nationals’ 6–1 win over the Dodgers in the ’19 NLDS over the Dodgers.

Should he win this ALCS Game 7 start, Scherzer will replace Burleigh Grimes as the oldest starter to win a winner-take-all postseason game. Grimes was born in 1893, chewed slippery elm to load up the baseball, was nicknamed Ol’ Stubblebeard because he refused to shave on game days and was 38 when he won Game 7 of the 1931 World Series for the Cardinals.

“I think that what blew me away was his preparation,” Semien said about being teammates with Scherzer, of which Max has had many. He has made his past six postseason starts for four teams (Nationals, Dodgers, Mets, Rangers). “Being able to see it firsthand—not just him throwing his bullpen and playing catch and his workouts and his stretching and recovery, but his preparation. He wants to know everything about every single hitter and what he wants to do. And once he’s out there, he is convicted on each pitch.”

Think about the events that brought him to this game. From the Nationals to the Dodgers in a trade to the Mets as a free agent to the Rangers in a trade after the Mets collapsed and held a mini fire sale and the Rangers decided they wanted Scherzer over Justin Verlander because the contract was shorter and, they concluded, his stuff was better at the time.

In his past six postseason starts for four teams, Scherzer is 0–3 with a 5.22 ERA. But that record and the 36 days off mean nothing at this moment because Game 7s always come preloaded with history waiting to happen. Scherzer has the chance to be a modern Ol’ Stubblebeard. At this late age, he is staring at the chance for a signature game.