Which Astros Prospects From FanGraphs’ Top 33 Could Impact the Team in 2023?

FanGraphs released its latest Houston Astros prospect rankings Friday, and some of those prospects could help the roster as early as 2023.

Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Astros Top 33 Prospects https://t.co/bvo4abaqnR

— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) July 8, 2022

Eric Longenhagen pieced together his Top 33 prospects in the Houston Astros system, releasing the report Friday on FanGraphs. Many were left questioning where Enmanuel Valdez was, while other undervalued names crept onto the list.

The list included 2022 Major League contributors in Jeremy Peña, Seth Martinez, J.J. Matijevic, Ronel Blanco and Parker Mushinski, but which other rising prospects will break the 40-man roster and impact the club next season?

Hunter Brown is the first name that comes to mind. The right-hander's dominance in the Pacific Coast League continues to bolster his case to be called up before the trade deadline.

Leading the PCL in strikeouts, ERA and opponents batting average, Brown is a 40-man addition away from being a contributor in the next three months. Because he lacks precise command and consistent pitch efficiency, Longenhagen reiterated the idea that Brown is likely to become a dominate multi-inning reliever — instead of a starter — with his upper-90s velocity and enhanced offspeed pitches.

Stirring away from the obvious, utility man David Hensley continues to display an Alex Bregman-like approach at the plate, walking 14.9 percent of the time (identical to Bregman in 2022) as of Friday. But the righty is also peaking in his first season at Triple-A, according to Longenhagen's future tool grades.

Playing all four infield positions and left field, Hensley's versatility could push him onto the 40-man roster by November. If not, the Rule 5 Draft eligible farmhand could fall into the lap of a rebuilding club.

Aledmys Díaz hits free agency this offseason. The Astros have Mauricio Dubón under team control until 2027, but the franchise will have to address depth either internally with Hensley and Joe Perez or on the market by either re-signing Díaz or finding an experienced replacement. 

Houston Astros Catching Prospect Yainer Diaz :: © Pete Garcia/Special to the Caller-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

Catcher Yainer Diaz is in a similar situation to Hensley. While the Astros benefited without a Rule 5 Draft this offseason, Diaz would be a name off the board if he is left unprotected this upcoming winter.

The likelihood the Astros don't protect Diaz is slim-to-none. With Jason Castro hitting free agency in November, Houston needs to act on the future with Diaz and Korey Lee shadowing Martín Maldonado on the active roster. Maldonado's 90-game vesting option for 2023 will kick in at his current rate, playing in 62 games of the Astros' 83. 

Prior to Friday's action, Diaz was posting an .866 OPS — the best of any backstop in Houston's system. His power and contact are expected to improve, while his versatility at first base only fuels his chances to be added to the 40-man this offseason, even if he starts next year in Sugar Land.

Houston Astros Pitching Prospect J.P. France / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sportsv

Forrest Whitley and Shawn Dubin are eyed as depth for the future with their high whiff rates and impressive velocity, displaying high-valued ceilings as either starters or long relievers. But with Whitley just returning to Triple-A and Dubin on the injured list, J.P. France is quietly boosting his value too.

Named the Pitcher of the Month for June by the Space Cowboys, the righty's age is one of his bigger obstacles as he climbs the system. At 27, France is striking out 11.76 batters per nine innings in his first full season in Triple-A.

His improved command and recent decrease in walk rate may not only improve his chances of being rotational depth, but also his trade value. France enters his second offseason eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, and his first with the actual draft pending. His fate is up in the air if the Astros don't move him.

Longenhagen marked Pedro León's estimated time of arrival as 2025. The 24-year-old outfielder would be 27 by his expected debut, leaving many wondering why the highly-touted prospect is still so far away.

As he is not Rule 5 Draft eligible until after the 2024 season, the Astros don't need to add Leon to the 40-man roster for the time being. But the power-hitting right-hander is striking out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances, and he can't live by doubles alone in hope to make the majors anytime soon.

His versatility beyond the outfield has taken a hit. The shortstop experiment has since been retired, and he is seeing more innings at second base. His above-average arm looked ideal for the position, but his glove and control pivoted player development in a different direction defensively. 

Houston doesn't need to rush the potential in León, but with his eye-catching signing bonus from 2021 ($4 million), the Astros must hope for his struggles to be resolved. His swing-and-miss rate needs to decrease while he hones in on the raw power he can provide before he's seen as depth for the 2023 campaign.

Longenhagen described the Astros' below-average farm as an obstacle when it comes to acquiring strong additions at the trade deadline. With a first and second-round pick back in 2022, Houston will have a better chance to catch up to other farm systems this summer.

As holes fill the future of the club, underrated prospects continue to break through, providing depth to a franchise rated bottom-five in farmhands by numerous publications.

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