Atlanta's road to another championship is tougher, but not impossible

The Dodgers have added multiple elite pieces, but the Braves are still amongst the favorites to win the World Series in 2024

If you're not a night owl, you've undoubtedly woken up to the news that the Los Angeles Dodgers, on the heels of signing two-time MVP Shohei Ohtani to a ten year, $700M contract, have signed another Japanese star. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, thought to be the best pitcher to ever leave Japan for MLB, has agreed to a twelve-year, $325M contract. The deal contains no deferred money. It's the newest record for a pitcher in MLB, besting New York Yankees pitcher (and reigning AL Cy Young winner) Gerrit Cole's 2019 pact by $1M.

Los Angeles will owe a $50.1M posting fee to Yamamoto's NPB team, the Orix Buffaloes, and are also paying Yamamoto himself a $50M signing bonus. 

With the signing, Dodgers World Series odds have continued to improve. Already moved to a +460 favorite after signing Ohtani on FanDuel, they're now sitting at +400 as of time of publication. 

The Dodgers are not guaranteed the World Series

But the signings of Yamamoto and Ohtani (as well as trading for Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow), while solidifying the Dodgers as the World Series favorites, doesn't mean we can cancel the regular season and give them the award now. 

You know who was favored to win the World Series last year? 

The Atlanta Braves. 

If there's anything we said almost too much in October, it's how the playoffs are more contingent on luck then we'd like to admit. The best teams not only don't always win, they frequently don't win. 

And a lot of teams can make it through October to the World Series. 

The last ten World Series winners have been spread amongst nine different teams, with only the Houston Astros winning twice in that span. 

And yes, #1 seeds have won it several times in that sample - Houston in 2022, Boston in 2018, and the Cubs in 2016. But Atlanta won it as a three seed in 2021, Washington as a four seed in 2019, and San Francisco as a five seed in 2014. This year's matchup featured a fifth-seed and a sixth-seed, with the fifth-seed Texas Rangers winning the whole thing.   

Atlanta has a roster good enough to win the entire thing

The Braves returned 8/9ths of the best offense in baseball from 2023, with the only change being a swap of Eddie Rosario & Kevin Pillar for newly-acquired Jarred Kelenic in left field. They have the reigning National League MVP in Ronald Acuña Jr and the league's home run leader in Matt Olson, as well as potential MVP Austin Riley and the rest of the gang. 

The bullpen's been upgraded, with the lesson learned from the NLDS eliminations at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies being that you need both velocity and plenty of left-handers out of the pen. Atlanta's done that, shipping out multiple soft tossers for absolute gas in the pen. 

And for all the gnashing of teeth that the Braves can't win the World Series because of a lack of upgrades to the rotation, it's worth looking at what Atlanta did to win the 2021 World Series - and more importantly, who started those games: 

Game 1: Charlie Morton (2.1 IP, 1H, 2BB, 3Ks - left due to injury)

Game 2: Max Fried (5 IP, 7H, 6R, 1BB, 6Ks)

Game 3: Ian Anderson (5 IP, 0H, 0R, 3BB, 4Ks)

Game 4: Dylan Lee, technically (0.1 IP, 1H, 1R, 2BB, 1K) followed by Kyle Wright (4.2 IP, 5H, 1R, 3BB, 3Ks)

Game 5: Tucker Davidson (2 IP, 2H, 4R [2ER], 3BB, 1K)

Game 6: Max Fried (6IP, 4H, 0R, 0BB, 6Ks)

Now look at who you'd line up in that same scenario this season: 

Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton, AJ Smith-Shawver/Hurston Waldrep/Ian Anderson. 

Atlanta's going to be fine. 

Updated FanGraphs projections after the Yamamoto signing:

1. Braves 97.2 wins
2. Dodgers 91.2 wins
3. Astros 90.4 wins https://t.co/YPzWLpwFZP

— Austin Cain-Reach (@reach_baseball) December 22, 2023

This Dodgers team is still beatable

For all of the talk about how good the top of that lineup is - and don't get it wrong, Betts/Ohtani/Freeman is as formidable of a 1-3 as you will find in all of baseball - it's still not unbeatable. Atlanta's projected to have the better 1-9 right now, with the likes of Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, and even Orlando ARcia seen as more reliable offensive options than Max Muncy, Jason Heyward, and Gavin Lux.

And that rotation of the Dodgers? It's anchored by a pitcher who's never pitched in MLB before (Yamamoto), a pitcher that's only once pitched 120 innings in a season (Glasnow), and a pitcher coming back midseason from Tommy John surgery (Walker Buehler).   

The road is harder, but it's still navigable. 

Even with Shohei Ohtani joining the Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves still have the better lineup

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