Baseball America declares Michael Harris II the 6th best player of the 2019 MLB Draft

In a recent "re-draft" exercise, Baseball America moved Michael Harris II up from pick 98 to pick 6

It's easy, relatively speaking, to find a talented player at the top of the MLB Draft. 

(It's not guaranteed, mind you, but it's incredibly likely to work out). 

It's a lot harder to find an impact performer later in day two, or even on day three. 

Baseball America, working off of the idea that you can't accurately judge an MLB Draft until five years later, sat down and re-did the first round of the 2019 draft ($), choosing who would go where if we knew now what we knew then. 

And one of the biggest winners in that hypothetical scenario was Atlanta Braves centerfielder Michael Harris II. 

Harris, who Atlanta actually took with the 98th pick (3rd round), was moved all the way up to the #6 overall pick in Baseball America's do-over, going to the San Diego Padres in lieu of their original selection, SS CJ Abrams. (Abrams has since been traded to the Washington Nationals.)

Here's what BA draft writer Carlos Collazo said about Atlanta's selection and the decision to move him up: 

It only takes six players to get to the point where a prospect not ranked inside the first-round range back in 2019 makes an appearance. At the time, most of the industry seemed to prefer Harris as a lefthanded pitcher on the mound. Not the Braves. They drafted him as a hitter and never looked back. Harris spent just three seasons in the minors before making his major league debut in 2022 as a 21-year-old, when he put together one of the better rookie seasons we’ve seen on a per-plate appearance basis.
Like (Gunnar) Henderson and (Corbin) Carroll, you could probably argue for Harris to be in a higher spot considering his advanced bat-to-ball skills, speed and phenomenal defensive work in center field. What keeps him at the back of this elite tier for me is less confidence in his plate skills and approach compared to the others. Harris is the most aggressive swinger of the bunch (52.7% swing rate compared to Witt at 50.4%) and his out-of-zone swing rate (41.6%) is even more aggressive relative to the league average (31.9%). He has enough bat-to-ball skill, speed and power for that to be a viable option for him, and he’s been a well above-average hitter in two seasons. He should have a chance for a Gold Glove or two as well.

The five players going above Harris in the exercise were the original first and second overall picks, Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman & Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr., as well Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll (originally #16 overall), Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson (originally #42 overall), and Mariners RHP George Kirby (originally #20 overall). 

More changes for Atlanta

Atlanta's scouting was obviously on point with the Harris selection, but Collazo didn't let the Braves stick with either of their actual first round picks that year. 

Drafting at #9, Atlanta originally selected Baylor University catcher Shea Langeliers, an instrumental piece of the Matt Olson trade with the Oakland Athletics. 

But in a redraft, Collazo went a different direction with the selection, giving Atlanta third baseman Josh Jung out of Texas Tech. Here's what he said about the selection: 

Jung had a tremendous offensive track record coming out of the draft, so much so that he went inside the first 10 picks despite a No. 17 overall rank in the draft. Jung was frequently critiqued for his inability or unwillingness to turn on the ball, though that has unsurprisingly not been a real issue for him in years. He was 22nd among hitters with 100+ plate appearances in 2022 with a 49.2% pull rate, and while that number dropped significantly in 2023, to a below-average 36.8% rate, he still drives the ball with authority to all fields and his 41.9% sweet-spot rate was in the 98th percentile. If he can improve a 29.3% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate, he has even more offensive upside, but even lacking that he provides solid righthanded power and solid defense at the hot corner. 

Jung, whose 2022 MLB debut was delayed due to a preseason shoulder injury, started 122 games for the Texas Rangers in 2023, being named an All-Star, and batted .266 with 23 homers and 70 RBIs. He chipped in an .308 average and three more homers in the postseason as the Rangers went on to win the World Series. 

In this hypothetical scenario, Jung's defensive struggles at third base as he rose through the minors are probably mitigated by a likely move to first base, owing to the presence of Austin Riley at Atlanta's hot corner. If Atlanta never makes the Matt Olson trade, given that Shea Langeliers was the centerpiece of that deal, Jung's likely the starting first baseman for the Braves. Of course, the other alternative history here is he's the centerpiece of the trade with the Athletics for Matt Olson and nothing else changes.

Some sort of trade would have been likely, because Atlanta's other first round pick that year, #21 overall, was Texas A&M shortstop Braden Shewmake. Collazo has 1B Andrew Vaughn, who was taken at #3 that year in real life by the Chicago White Sox, falling to Atlanta here instead, giving the Braves two corner infield options that could have potentially stepped in to replace Freddie Freeman after the 2021 season. 

Another later round Braves pick moves up

Interestingly, current Braves infielder Vaughn Grissom was also a first round pick in the re-do, being sent to the Colorado Rockies at #23 overall. Atlanta took Grissom in the 11th round, #337 overall, signing him for $347,500 (the equivalent bonus of the mid-5th round). 

The Trade Value for Vaughn Grissom Might Never be Higher

Said Collazo about the selection, which replaced actual draft pick 1B Michael Toglia: 

Grissom was a bit of an afterthought on his own high school team thanks to playing alongside consensus top-of-the-draft hitter Riley Greene at Hagerty High. The Braves were excited about his upside on both sides of the ball, however, and signed him for $347,500 in the 11th round. While Grissom has graduated from prospect status after a loud debut season in 2022 when he managed a 119 OPS+, he doesn’t have an obvious path to regular playing time currently in Atlanta – particularly after the team acquired left fielder Jarred Kelenic this offseason. Grissom has regular upside with a bat-first profile, but it wouldn’t be shocking for the Braves to flip him in a deal to fill holes on the roster elsewhere. He had a strong 2023 season with Triple-A Gwinnett where he hit .330/.419/.501 while playing shortstop and second base.

For subscribers of Baseball America, the full article is available HERE. 

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