Bleacher Report thinks the Braves should trade AJ Smith-Shawver for Pirates righty Mitch Keller
It's that time of the year, folks: Trade speculation season.
Bleacher Report put out an article with proposed trades, one for every MLB team, and their idea for an Atlanta Braves/Pittsburgh Pirates pairing is certainly interesting:
Atlanta sends: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP Allan Winans, SS Braden Shewmake
Pittsburgh sends: RHP Mitch Keller
Let's talk about this.
Why would Atlanta trade for Mitch Keller?
Bleacher Report's rationale was that Atlanta has rotation uncertainty behind the top two and Keller would be one of the better #3 starters in all of MLB.
The Atlanta Braves have some questions in the starting rotation that will need to be answered this offseason as they gear up for another title push.
Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder will presumably fill three spots on the staff, but Kyle Wright will start the year on the injured list and Charlie Morton turns 40 years old next month and dealt with injury issues down the stretch.
Keller would, in fact, be a pretty good #3 starter. A first time All-Star in 2023 at age 27, Keller went 13-9 with a 4.21 ERA in 32 starts for Pittsburgh. He struck out 210 batters in his 194.1 innings (9.7 K/9), and had a FIP of 3.80, showing that he was slightly unlucky.
Since becoming a full-time starter during the 2021 season, he's started 82 games and tied for the NL lead with one complete game shutout, holding the Colorado Rockies scoreless on four hits on May 8th, striking out eight and walking only one.
He's entering his 2nd year of arbitration in 2024 - coming off of a $2.4M salary, he's projected to earn only $6M this upcoming season.
I don't hate the addition of Keller to this staff - like B/R says, he'd be an insanely qualified #3 pitcher and would bump Bryce Elder to the #4 spot.
Let's talk about that compensation, though
That being said, I don't think Atlanta should trade AJ Smith-Shawver to make the deal. #53 on the MLB Pipeline Top 100 (and, spoiler alert, our #1 Braves prospect in next week's farm rankings), the hope is that he can get eventually be better than a #3 for Atlanta.
While I understand the idea of the trade, with Atlanta needing to stack up quality to make a push in Max Fried's last year of contractual control before free agency, sending AJSS feels like a big ask.
If the centerpiece of this deal is anyone other than Smith-Shawver or Hurston Waldrep - say, perhaps "the absolute pinnacle of my trade value" infielder Vaughn Grissom - then I'd do this and be happy with it.
But sending AJSS is too rich for my blood.
What about this reworked deal?
Atlanta sends: INF Vaughn Grissom, RHP Allan Winans, SS Braden Shewmake
Pittsburgh sends: RHP Mitch Keller
(Shewmake might be redundant in that deal if they're getting Grissom, so substitute him for a low-level pitching prospect, if you'd like. Maybe RHP Seth Keller, or RHP Tyler Owens if they want someone who could contribute as soon as next year.)
Would you make this deal? Let us know!
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