What would going "all-in" for the Braves in 2024 look like?

If the Braves wanted to push all the chips in on 2024, what would that look like?

In many ways, the Atlanta Braves are in a special place - their lineup is full of cost-controlled stars signed to long-term deals while they play in a park (and surrounding mixed-usage development) that's, quite literally, the model for the new-age of ballpark construction.

According to most, the Braves should have a lengthier-than-average "championship window" where they can compete to make and win the World Series, a window that should stretch for multiple seasons.

But, we just saw what might have been one of the greatest regular-season teams in recent history flame out in the Divisional Round for the 2nd straight season. It's obvious that not only is it tough to win in the postseason, but there's something missing from this roster that would push them over the top. 

What if, instead of essentially running it back with the same roster next season, Atlanta tried to push in all their chips, so to speak, and focused all their resources on 2024?

ALL of them. 

What would that look like? 

(Note: This is a hypothetical scenario. We have zero expectations that the Atlanta Braves would be this aggressive in the offseason; it's merely a thought experiment. Save your angry emails.)

Trading for Padres outfielder Juan Soto

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Soto, who has only one year before free agency, is rumored to be on the move from the San Diego Padres in an attempt to cut payroll. 

(Soto's projected to earn $33M in his final year of arbitration before free agency, per MLB Trade Rumors)

Adding Juan Soto is not only a move that's been approved by none other than Ronald Acuña Jr himself, but it would more than capably fill the hole left by the free agent departure of Eddie Rosario. 

Playing in every single game last season (one of four players in MLB, including Braves 1B Matt Olson, to do that), Soto batted .275/.410/.519 with 35 homers and a league-leading 132 walks. He was an All-Star (3rd selection) and Silver Slugger (4th selection). 

Potential trade cost: AJ Smith-Shawver, Jared Shuster, Vaughn Grissom, Ignacio Alvarez

Sign Shohei Ohtani to a two-year deal at a record salary

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Ohtani is everyone's #1 free agent on this year's market and is probably going to set new records for both total dollars and AAV (average annual value) on his next contract. 

But the (probable) two-time MVP is rumored to be willing to consider a shorter-term deal at an "absurdly high" AAV, which would allow him time to rehabilitate his right (throwing) elbow after September Tommy John surgery and re-enter the free agency market. 

The current AAV record is $43.3M, attained by both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander with the New York Mets. 

The easy number to throw out for Ohtani is $50M, but he might get that without pitching in 2024. $60M feels "absurdly high" enough to feel confident he'd sign for that amount, at least for the purposes of this exercise. 

You'd be getting two seasons of Ohtani the DH and one season of Ohtani the pitcher, assuming rehab from his second Tommy John surgery goes well enough for him to take the mound without restriction in 2025. 

Trade for Brewers ace Corbin Burnes

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Burnes, the 2021 Cy Young winner in the National League, is available via trade - reportedly, "almost everyone" on the Brewers is - and would immediately slot into the top of any contending team's rotation. 

Despite having only one remaining year of control, this wouldn't be a cheap acquisition - Burnes has made at least 28 starts in each of the last three seasons, being named an All-Star in all three, with an ERA twice under 3.00 (and once under 2.50). Despite taking a step back in ERA this season, at "only" 3.39, he led the National League in WHIP (1.069). 

A potential package headlined by 2023 1st rounder Hurston Waldrep, another top pitching prospect like Spencer Schwellenbach or Owen Murphy, plus a lower level piece should easily get it done. 

Here's your lineup and rotation:

USA Today Sports

This lineup? Whew. Good luck to opposing pitchers finding a way around the top...six batters? Seven batters? 

RF Ronald Acuña Jr
LF Juan Soto
3B Austin Riley
DH Shohei Ohtani
1B Matt Olson
C Sean Murphy
2B Ozzie Albies
SS Orlando Arcia
CF Michael Harris II

Rotation: 

SP Spencer Strider
SP Max Fried
SP Corbin Burnes
SP Charlie Morton
SP Bryce Elder (or, at this point, some other 5th starter from free agency - Jordan Montgomery, perhaps?)

So what's the final cost here?

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

From a salary perspective, it's easily the most expensive roster Atlanta's ever assembled. Using Spotrac estimated payrolls for 2024, Atlanta was already a top five cash payroll at $206.6M. Add in Soto's $33M, Ohtani's $60M, and Burnes's projected $15M and it's the highest payroll in MLB history. 

(For context, the New York Mets set a record last season at $343M...just to finish in 4th place in the division.)

Assuming no one else signs - and why would you assume that? You're already blowing past every luxury tax threshold, might as well add in some relievers or another starting pitcher - you're looking at $401.75M.

But the cost isn't just financial - we made some trades in there, remember? We traded away most of Atlanta's top five prospects, as well as several lower-level guys that would inevitably get added into these trades as filler. 

(So restocking the rotation in 2025 - when Fried and Burnes could both walk in free agency while Morton retired - is going to be rather challenging, even with the expected returns of Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright from surgery.)

And the losses don't stop there - because Atlanta blew past every single luxury tax threshold, the taxes would be absurd on this payroll. It's a 30% tax on all overages (as Atlanta's over the CBT threshold for the 2nd consecutive year) with additional surcharges, starting at 12% and increasing to 60%, on every dollar spent starting at 20% over. 

I'm going to conservatively estimate $100M in financial penalties, as well as having Atlanta's highest selection in the 2025 draft moved back ten spots.  

Total cost: ~$500M in payroll and tax penalties, plus the loss of four of the top five prospects and six of the top ten, and the dropping of the 2025 1st rounder by ten spots. 

Would this be worth it? 

If Atlanta wins the 2024 World Series, it'd be hard to argue that it wasn't. But there's a question of longevity: Is it better to have the highest of highs and then struggle for a few years (which Atlanta would do with a decimated pitching rotation and lack of minor league arms), or be consistently successful for a decade with recurring opportunities to make postseason runs, based on how hot (and healthy) the team is when the postseason starts? 

(Basically, do you want to be the Boston Red Sox or the Los Angeles Dodgers?)  

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