Braves now project to have best 2024 rotation in MLB

Adding Chris Sale is enough in the eyes of the projection systems to name Atlanta the best rotation in all of baseball for next season

The Atlanta Braves were already in a pretty good place entering the 2024 season: The best offense in baseball from last season returned almost every key contributor, the starting rotation was intact, and the bullpen was bolstered with both high velocity, lefties, and swing-and-miss stuff. 

But now? They might be the best in just about everything. 

After trading for Boston Red Sox starter Chris Sale, Fangraphs projections have the Braves as the best rotation in all of MLB to go along with their MLB-leading offense and best overall team rating. 

Prior to the Sale trade, Atlanta was projected to be the third best rotation. But now, it's the best in baseball. 

RHP Spencer Strider	31 GS	185 IP	15-7	3.18 ERA
LHP Max Fried	31 GS	185 IP	14-8	3.57 ERA
RHP Charlie Morton	29 GS	165 IP	11-9	4.18 ERA
LHP Chris Sale	26 GS	141 IP	11-7	3.74 ERA
RHP Bryce Elder	24 GS	138 IP	9-8	4.69 ERA

The Braves potential starting rotation for 2024 👀 pic.twitter.com/Dke2xLx8kQ

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) December 30, 2023

Fangraphs estimates Atlanta's five starters will be worth 14.6 WAR, tops for any five man rotation in MLB for 2024. 

And obviously, this is just looking at the five-man rotation and not the extended starting depth the Braves have in the minors. Even if free agent signee Reynaldo López doesn't convert back to starting, as Atlanta said they'd look at, the Braves still project to have six other rotation options to cover starts to open 2024, with Ian Anderson (rehabbing from Tommy John surgery) expected to begin his rehab stints over the summer:

RHP AJ Smith-Shawver
LHP Dylan Dodd
RHP Darius Vines
RHP Allan Winans
RHP Huascar Ynoa
RHP Hurston Waldrep (not on 40-man roster) 

(Minor league free agent signees Taylor Widener and Zach Logue don't have defined roles as of now, but both have starting experience and could conceivably be utilized as spot starters if needed). 

That depth is a welcome sight, as Atlanta had sixteen different pitchers take the ball to start a game in 2023, using thirteen standard starters and three designated "openers". Decimated by multi-month injuries to both Max Fried and Kyle Wright, as well as absences of Ian Anderson (Tommy John surgery) and Huascar Ynoa (Tommy John surgery), Atlanta's starters put up a 4.36 ERA on the season, good for 17th out of 30 MLB teams.

Some of those starters from last season are no longer with the organization - Michael Soroka (6.40 ERA) was traded to the Chicago White Sox, with Kyle Wright (6.97 in seven starts) being sent to the Kansas City Royals and both Kolby Allard (6.57 ERA) and Yonny Chirinos (9.27 ERA) being allowed to walk, but the core of the group remains in Atlanta. 

And having sufficient rotation depth should allow Atlanta to allow for greater rest in the regular season. Bryce Elder, who was a 2023 All-Star after a 2.97 ERA in the first half, faltered down the stretch to the tune of a 5.11 2nd-half ERA as he dealt with the largest innings workload of his professional career, pitching 180+ innings for the first time. 

(Manager Brian Snitker addressed this at the MLB Winter Meetings, saying "I guarantee you his preparation this winter will be different than it was the winters before, because he knows what he's in for (now).") 

Even with Shohei Ohtani joining the Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves still have the better lineup

Sale, who was one of the best pitchers in baseball early in his career (seven consecutive top six Cy Young finishes), has pitched just under 150 innings combined since 2019. Dealt with numerous medical issues, including 2020 Tommy John surgery, a rib injury, broken fingers, and a broken wrist, he rebounded to pitch 102.2 innings last season, but will still need to have his workload managed. 

And Max Fried, a paragon of consistency that had 165 or more innings in all three of the last full seasons before 2022, pitched only 77.2 innings as he dealt with three different IL stints (hamstring strain, forearm strain, blisters).

Even Charlie Morton, the veteran who always posts (thirty starts in each of his last five full-length seasons, so excluding 2020), missed the end of the regular season and the NLDS with a sprained finger.  

The various injury issues caused Atlanta to scramble their rotation for the NLDS, giving Max Fried just his 2nd start in a month and then throwing Bryce Elder in game three. 

Instead, Alex Anthopoulos has built a rotation with plenty of postseason caliber options. It's clear that Atlanta's goal is to use their strong rotation depth in the high minors to get through the regular season, with the goal of getting their frontline starters through to the postseason healthy. 

Anthopoulos alluded to this, specifically with Sale, in yesterday's conference call with media after the trade, saying "We'll make sure to do what we can to keep him on the mound," alluding to getting all of the starters more rest between starts and other preventative measures. 

Let's hope it works. 

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2023 MLB Free Agent Rankings
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Projecting the 2024 Atlanta Braves' arbitration salaries

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