Could the Atlanta Braves trade for Tyler Glasnow to bolster the rotation?

Tampa Bay's rumored to be shopping the talented but oft-injured pitcher entering his final year of control

One of the most common refrains we hear over at Braves Today is that the Atlanta Braves need starters, and good ones. This need will be magnified if Charlie Morton decides to retire rather than let Atlanta pick up his $20M club option for 2024. 

Is it possible that general manager Alex Anthopoulos swings a trade for a starter? 

The Tampa Bay Rays are rumored to be taking calls on righty Tyler Glasnow. Why would they do that, and would it make sense for Atlanta to try and work out a deal? 

Who's Tyler Glasnow?

A 2011 5th rounder by the Pirates who was later traded to Tampa Bay along with Shane Baz in 2018's Chris Archer deal, Glasnow's coming off a 21-start season for Tampa with a 10-7 record, 3.53 ERA, and 162 strikeouts in only 120 innings. That strikeout rate, 12.2 K/9, would put Glasnow ahead of every pitcher on Atlanta's roster except Spencer Strider. It wasn't just stuff without control, either; Glasnow walked only 37 batters, so only 2.8 BB/9 (tied with Strider for 2nd-best amongst Braves starters, behind only Max Fried's 2.1 BB/9). 

Why would Tampa Bay be open to trading Tyler Glasnow?

Simply, his salary jumps from $5.35M this year to $25M next year. Knowing that Glasnow was entering his final year of arbitration for 2023, Tampa Bay signed him to a two year deal that guaranteed him over $30M, but structured it where most of that money, $25M, was coming in 2024 (we're assuming with the intention of trading him).  

Glasnow may have contributed a relatively full season in 2023, but that's not been the norm for the righty. He spent extended time on the injured list in both 2019 and 2021, pitching a combined 148 innings. He ultimately needed Tommy John in 2021, missing all but 6.2 innings of 2022. 

Is trading for Glasnow a good idea for Atlanta? 

I don't think it is, for a few reasons. 

The first is his injury history. He not only just returned from Tommy John surgery, he also had some issues early this season with his oblique and later in the year with his back. Betting on him staying healthy a 2nd straight season feels risky. 

Additionally, $25M is a higher price to pay for production that's not guaranteed to be significantly better than what Morton gave you - 2019 and 2021 are Glasnow's only season with an ERA below 4.00. That additional $5M is on top of whatever the trade compensation is to get Glasnow, although if the Rays are desperate to unload that salary commitment, they may not ask for much in return. 

But if Morton decides to hang it up, trading for Glasnow might be one way to spend a little more in both money and prospect capital for another playoff starter. 

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