Don't expect other big ticket moves by the Atlanta Braves this offseason

Chris Sale's extension gets Atlanta a little breathing room before the third luxury tax threshold, but not much

In the liminal space between the Atlanta Braves trading for Chris Sale on Saturday and the Thursday contract extension, a few of the Braves Today staff was wondering: 

Can Atlanta afford this? 

Not from a payroll perspective, mind you - between Boston's cash sent to offset the $27.5M 2024 payroll figure and the deferred $10M, Atlanta's cash outlay for 2024 was only $500,000. 

No, we meant in a "The Braves are really close to the third luxury tax threshold of $277M and if they exceed it, that's a draft pick penalty." 

(Exceeding the third of four CBT thresholds results in the team's first round pick being moved back ten spots, a punishment being levied this season on the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, and New York Yankees for their 2023 spending.)

Prior to Sale's contract extension, Atlanta was projected to be at $275,698,334 in luxury tax spending. We wrote an entire article about it on Sunday morning! 

The financial implications of adding Chris Sale for the 2024 Atlanta Braves

And Thursday's extension gave Atlanta some breathing room. Sale's CBT value, calculated as the average annual value of the remaining contract, dropped from $27.5M to $19M after the extension. 

(With salaries of $16M for 2024 and $22M for 2025, the average is $19M for the extension, if you were curious how this is calculated.)

We've confirmed with the fine folks over at FanGraphs that, given what we know (which is also a required disclaimer, as none of this is public and/or verified by MLB or the Braves), Atlanta is sitting on a luxury tax figure of $270,598,334. 

So, roughly $6M to spend before hitting that third tier of the luxury tax. 

There's a few reasons Atlanta's not going to be making any more significant signings this offseason. 

The first is that, well, Anthopoulos likes to have a little "wiggle room" available in season for any sort of deadline additions needed. Can you imagine if there was no wiggle room available in 2021? We definitely don't win the World Series without the financial space to go out and acquire Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, and Joc Pederson. 

The second is that there's some uncertainty still out there, with arbitration salaries. 

Atlanta's done a robust job at shedding most arbitration eligibles on the roster, with Nicky Lopez ($3.9M), Michael Soroka ($3M), Kyle Wright ($1.4M), and Nick Anderson ($1.6M) all estimated, per MLB Trade Rumors, to be receiving salaries out of line with both their contributions in 2023 and their expected contributions in 2024. Those arbitration hearings will all be done with their new clubs, as all four players were traded after the season.

But there's two outstanding arbitration decisions that could loom large for Atlanta's future draft position - Max Fried and AJ Minter. The lefties are projected to receive a combined $20.9M in arbitration, with the starter Fried being estimated at $14.4M and the reliever Minter being estimated at $6.5M.

Huascar Ynoa is also a first time arbitration eligible and estimated to receive $1M, but it's close enough to the MLB minimum - $740k in 2024 - and he's not working with any on-field track record last season that it's reasonable to assume either Atlanta settles with him or he doesn't receive more than the projection.

(The Fangraphs luxury tax figures do include the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections.) 

Atlanta has a mixed track record with Fried's hearings, having both won and lost in recent seasons. Minter has never had an arbitration hearing with the Braves, having settled prior to the offer deadline in each of his previous three seasons. 

And right now, they need to wait to see exactly how much money they need. But other than maybe a backup outfielder (of which there are plenty of options, as Jake broke down), this roster's pretty set. 

Spring Training won't get here soon enough. 

Important Braves Today Offseason Stories
2023 MLB Free Agent Rankings
Current Atlanta Braves prospect rankings
Current Atlanta Braves 40-man roster
Key offseason dates for the Atlanta Braves
Projecting the 2024 Atlanta Braves' arbitration salaries

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