FanGraphs projects Jarred Kelenic to outproduce Eddie Rosario in left field

Updating their Steamer projections, Fangraphs is high on Kelenic's fit in Atlanta, but it's definitely a play on further growth and development

The only position player that the Atlanta Braves targeted this offseason, per president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, is new left fielder Jarred Kelenic. The Braves acquired the outfielder last week from the Seattle Mariners in a five player trade that saw them take on the bad contracts of both Marco Gonzales and Evan White, now both traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Angels, respectively. 

Kelenic's technically in a position battle with infielder Vaughn Grissom, who's in winter ball in Puerto Rico right now converting over to outfield after a career spent playing exclusively infield, but Kelenic's the favorite to be the Opening Day starter given his much greater track record of competently playing in the grass and manager Brian Snitker's preference for experience. 

And Steamer, the proprietary projection system of Fangraphs, thinks that not only will Kelenic win the job, he'll out perform last year's left field starter Eddie Rosario. 

Per the updated Steamer projections, Kelenic is projected for 110 games in left field as the larger side of a platoon with Vaughn Grissom, with a slash line of .245/.322/.434. For counting stats, he's projected to hit 16 homers and steal 11 bases, with a total wRC+ of 101 (with 100 being MLB average).

For comparison, Eddie Rosario had a better batting average last season (.255) and home run total (21), but a lower on-base percentage (.305) and stolen base total (3/7). He finished with a 100 wRC+ for 2023 and is predicted for a 95 in 2024.   

(Kelenic should also be more valuable defensively, as he's capable of playing right and center field, as well. Rosario is almost exclusively a left fielder at this point in his career, Gold Glove nomination notwithstanding.)

And honestly, an "average" wRC+ is good enough in this Braves lineup. Atlanta returns the other eight lineup regulars from an offense that tied the MLB record for homers in a season and easily outpaced the rest of baseball in runs scored. 

Kelenic's notorious for feeling the "pressure" of his draft stock and importance to his team - he was the #6 overall pick of the New York Mets in the 2018 MLB Draft and was the centerpiece of their trade for 2B Robinson Canó. He's admitted to feeling the obligation to not only perform, but carry Seattle's offense at times, leading him to kick a cooler in frustration after a strikeout last season and breaking his foot. 

With the pressure Jarred Kelenic puts on himself to perform paired with the expectations of being the savior in Seattle after being the games top prospect, a fresh start in ATL is great. Kelenic doesn’t need to be the guy in ATL, just their 6th or 7th best hitter.

— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) December 7, 2023

But in Atlanta, Kelenic doesn't have to press at the plate - Atlanta's probably going to win 90 games whether he bats .280 with 30 homers or slumps so hard he's sent to AAA in August. 

And so hopefully the lack of expectations can free him up to just go out and play baseball. That freedom, combined with what Atlanta's hitting coach (Kevin Seitzer) and hitting consultant (Chipper Jones) might be able to do with him, could potentially turn him into a star.  

What the Atlanta Braves are getting in Jarred Kelenic

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