Fantasy baseball expert calls Bryce Elder the Braves "sleeper" pick of 2024
The Atlanta Braves team actually isn't an easy one to evaluate for fantasy baseball purposes.
They're so good, you want them all.
Six different players are going in the top 35 picks in the recently updated National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Average Draft Position (ADP) boards. The reigning NL Most Valuable Player Ronald Acuña Jr is the most common #1 overall pick, with starting pitcher (and NL Cy Young front-runner) Spencer Strider joining him in the top ten.
In the second round (for twelve-team leagues), there's a trio of Braves hitters coming off the boards, with Matt Olson (18), Austin Riley (21), and Ozzie Albies (22) all finding themselves commonly selected.
Centerfielder Michael Harris II rounds out the early Braves selections, averaging a #34 pick right now.
But the writers over at PitcherList, a popular fantasy baseball source, think there's some value to be found in looking at Bryce Elder.
During their "Sleepers and Busts" fantasy baseball preview of the 2024 Atlanta Braves, author Taylor Tarter identifies Elder as a value to target, owing to his ADP of 495 (42nd round).
After acknowledging that the reason that some owners stay away from Elder is his low strikeout rate (6.6 K/9 in 2023, tw below the MLB average, Tarter points out all the reasons owners should be more into Elder:
On the flipside, Elder was better than league average in walks per nine (BB/9), left on base (LOB) rate, groundball (GB) rate, ERA, and chase rate.
In fact, Elder possessed the 23rd best LOB rate among all qualified starting pitchers at 74.4%, and the fourth best GB rate at 49.9%. And while he did allow a lot of contact, he allowed the fourth lowest barrel rate among qualified starters at 6%. Much of the reason for his success at inducing ground balls and soft contact is thanks to his pitch mix.
Part of the reason to like Elder in fantasy, per Tarter, is the combination of his ability to pick up wins and Elder's depth of his outings.
Digging into the numbers, there's some valid points to be made here. Elder won 12 games last season, thanks to the Braves scoring at least three runs in 28 of Elder's 31 starts, and scoring six or more in fourteen of them.
And in eighteen of those starts, Elder made it through the sixth inning, so the depth is there, as well.
But with the way Elder's season ended, with a 5.11 ERA on the 2nd half overriding an All-Star-caliber first half to leave Elder at a 3.81 ERA on the season, it's understandable why Braves fans would be hesitant to pick up Elder in their drafts.
Other Braves mentioned in the piece from a fantasy perspective are DH Marcell Ozuna ("sleeper"), OF Jarred Kelenic ("bust"), and Max Fried (overvalued). You can read the whole thing on the PitcherList website HERE.
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