Frontline starter options for Atlanta now that Aaron Nola has returned to Philly

The Braves either need to move up in money for a Japanese star or settle for a Tier 2 option

Lindsay Crosby | Nov 19, 2023

The Atlanta Braves were reportedly "determined" to leave free agency with a "frontline" starter, one that could take the ball in a postseason game.

That task got a bit harder on Sunday morning with the news that presumed top target Aaron Nola was returning to the Philadelphia Phillies on a seven year, $172M deal. It hits a bit harder when you notice that it's just under $25M AAV, a price that Atlanta reportedly was willing to pay for the right starter.

BREAKING: Braves free agent target Aaron Nola re-signs with Philadelphia Phillies

So, with the best and most logical option off the board, what other frontline pitching options are left for Atlanta?

RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 25

Yamamoto, reportedly being posted by the NPB's Orix Buffaloes on Monday, becomes the top starter available on the market. He's won both the Pacific League MVP and the Samurai Award (Japan's Cy Young Award) both of the past two seasons, as well as the Triple Crown in each of the past three.

There's a belief amongst MLB front offices that he's not only the best Japanese player to be posted for MLB since Shohei Ohtani, but that he's capable of stepping into the #1 or #2 role for a contending team immediately.

Popular projections have Yamamoto's contract coming in around seven years and $200M ($29M AAV) with an additional posting fee of $30+ million, necessitating an investment of more than $230M.

RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, 29

Ohtani, a two-time MVP and dual threat sensation, is one of (if not the) most anticipated free agents in MLB history. Providing both MVP-caliber offense from the designated hitter spot as well as Cy-Young caliber pitching from the mound, he can improve all thirty organizations in Major League Baseball not just from his on-field contributions, but his marketing presence and star power.

That multi-faceted appeal is going to cost you, though, with estimates ranging up to and including a $500M total and more than ten years, with an AAV of $40M plus.

Compounding this is the fact that Ohtani, who underwent Tommy John surgery in September, won't be able to get back on the mound until the 2025 season for whoever signs him, so he's a designated hitter only next season.

LHP Blake Snell, 30

Snell, who will be 31 when next season starts, is the headliner of "Tier 2" options thanks to his 2nd Cy Young victory, coming last week. In a slimmer free agent market (and being repped by noted superagent Scott Boras), he's going to get paid like a two-time Cy Young winner, too.

Despite the contract he'll earn, he's not a slam dunk top-tier pitching option. He led all of baseball in ERA (2.25) and ERA+ (182), but also walks (99) and walk rate (5.8). His expected ERA (3.77) and Fielding Independent Pitching (3.44) both significantly outpaced his ERA, so regression is undoubtedly coming.

Common projections made before the Cy Young victory had him receiving five or more years and $140M or so, so closer to $30M AAV than $25M.

RHP Sonny Gray, 34

Gray, who is originally from Tennessee and went to college at Vanderbilt, is an intriguing option that Atlanta may be able to get at a slight discount.

He had MLB's lowest FIP at 2.83, as well as the lowest homer rate among qualified pitchers with 0.4 HR/9. Named an All-Star for only the third time in his career, Gray's undoubtedly looking for a multi-year deal that can carry him into the tail end of his career.

Given his age, a shorter team deal feels more likely, with a lot of common assumptions coming in around three or four years at $80M-$100M, so roughly $25M AAV.

Each of these remaining options have tradeoffs

There's additional costs to each of these players outside of just the contract - the trio of Ohtani, Snell, and Gray all received (and declined) qualifying offers, meaning any MLB team signing them in free agency is required to forfeit draft pick compensation. As a team that paid into the luxury tax last season, Atlanta would lose their 2nd and 5th-highest draft picks to sign either of the trio.

Yamamoto comes without draft pick compensation, but he does require a posting fee. That fee is a sliding scale off of the total contract amount, projected to end up around in excess of $30M.

(The fee is structured as follows: $5 million [20 percent] for the first $25 million of Yamamoto’s contract, $4.375 million [17.5 percent] of the next $25 million and 15 percent of the remaining total over $50 million.)

Which option would you want Atlanta to pursue?

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Published Nov 19, 2023

LINDSAY CROSBY

Managing Editor for Braves Today and the 2023 IBWAA Prospects/Minors Writer of the Year. You can reach him at contact@bravestoday.com