How much money do the Atlanta Braves have to spend in free agency?

The team is believed to have paid into the luxury tax in 2023 - will that impact how much money they spend this offseason?

Most folks are surprised to learn the Atlanta Braves opened 2023 with a top ten payroll. 

Checking in at $203M per Cot's Baseball Contracts, Atlanta's payroll wasn't anywhere remotely close to the Mets' historic $343M expenditure, but it was still significantly higher than the league average of $165M. 

And if you think about it, this makes sense - Atlanta's signed a LOT of the roster to long-term deals, with several regulars earning anywhere from $5M (Michael Harris II) to $22M (Matt Olson) in 2023. 

(Of note here is that not one of Atlanta's long-term deals is poised to exceed $22M AAV per year - I don't think that's a hard cap, but it seems to be a limit that Atlanta's reluctant to exceed.)  

When you factor in the additional costs that go into calculating MLB's luxury tax figures - 40-man roster costs, retained salaries (colloquially known as "dead money"), minor-league salaries and player benefits - the projection is that Atlanta's total Competitive Balance Tax payroll broke $250M, a $17M overage of the $233M threshold. 

This results in a projected tax bill for Atlanta of $3.5M as a first time payor, paying a 20% tax on all monies spent over the first threshold. 

(A team faces escalating penalties depending on how many consecutive years they've crossed the threshold, with the 2nd consecutive year seeing a 30% tax on the overage and a 3rd consecutive year being 50%. The first season your payroll dips under the threshold, the penalties reset to the first - 20% - tax.)

What does 2024 look like from a money perspective?

Entering 2024, the team has just $131M committed to the roster's long-term deals. When you add in the arbitration figures, projected by MLB Trade Rumors to equal $46M (if all eligible are tendered a contract), you're looking at $177M.

Is it possible Michael Soroka is a non-tender candidate?

As we've previously written, Charlie Morton's contract status is up in the air and might not even be up to the Braves. 

But we can make some assumptions.

If Morton comes back at the current $20M club option price and Atlanta's comfortable with an Opening Day salary around where it was last year, that'd leave around $20M to $25M of salary to spend in free agency. Not all of that will be spent in the offseason - Alex Anthopoulos likes to leave some dollars for trade deadline acquisitions, but it'd give you some room to make upgrades to the roster. 

We've already discussed Atlanta's needs this offseason - a left fielder (either to pair with Rosario, if he's retained at the $9M option price or to replace him), as well as both starting pitching and relief options.  

Based on the $20M-$25M projection above, Atlanta should have money to address all of those areas this offseason. 

I'd expect multiple signings in the bullpen - both Joe Jiménez and Pierce Johnson are free agents, while Brad Hand, Kirby Yates, and Collin McHugh all have pricey options and I don't expect any of them (with the exception of maybe Johnson and Yates) to return. 

While the amount of salary space doesn't allow Atlanta to make a giant splash with the signing of Padres closer Josh Hader, it should allow them to go out and get any one or two relievers they want on a multi-year deal. (Bringing back Jesse Chavez on a league-minimum deal would go a long way to saving the team some money for acquisitions, as well.)

As we discussed on the podcast, Alex Anthopoulos is usually good for one notable "splash" acquisition an offseason - the last three years have seen Atlanta acquire Charlie Morton in free agency (after 2020) and Matt Olson (2021) & Sean Murphy (2022) via trade. 

This offseason figures to be no different, and that splash feels increasingly likely to be a starting pitcher. There's a lot of options out there, via both trade and free agency, and expect Atlanta to play in the middle of that pool. I don't see a top of the market signing - no Blake Snell - but someone in the middle-tier on our rankings like Michael Wacha could happen. 

2023 MLB Free Agent Rankings

How aggressive Atlanta is with starting pitching, though, feels like it's contingent on Morton's return. If he hangs them up, Anthopoulos could either double up on starters or use Morton's money to shoot higher for his signing and then backfill with Atlanta's significant back-of-rotation depth that we saw last season. 

Either way, it's a pivotal offseason for the Braves. In the short term, the injuries to Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson, and Michael Soroka have muddied the middle of the rotation for next season. The pending free-agent departure of Max Fried has the potential to derail Atlanta's long-term postseason hopes if his replacements can't give Atlanta that game two starter behind Spencer Strider.

But Alex Anthopoulos hasn't failed Braves Country yet. Let's trust him to work this out.

(EDIT: This article has been updated to correct a calculation figure) 

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2023 Atlanta Braves Club options
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