Monday Mailbag: Does Atlanta go out and get a frontline starter in free agency?

We put out a call for questions and y'all definitely answered

Writing a mailbag is an ego-centric exercise, but in the words of Jason Isbell, "I'm lucky to have the work". Y'all wanted to know about left field upgrades, additions to the starting rotation, and what prospects might come up and supplement the roster next season, among other questions. Let's get into it. 

Who should Atlanta target to upgrade their starting pitching? - Russell

This is the million dollar question. As I said in today's podcast, Atlanta tends to make one decent splash every offseason, with the last three offseasons bringing us Charlie Morton (2020), Matt Olson (2021), and Sean Murphy (2022).

And Morton's the key to this, I think. He's got a $20M club option that's really up to him - he has until five days after the World Series to decide if he's hanging them up or coming back for one more year. 

It feels like the splash will either be for a starter or in left field, and the longer I think about it, the more comfortable I am with whatever Atlanta rolls out in left field.

Atlanta's got plenty of starting options - the Braves rolled out thirteen different starters (and three relievers working as openers) in 2023. The issue is that so many of them are back-end of the rotation types: Allan Winans, Jared Shuster, Darius Vines, etc haven't shown us anything to think they're potential number two or three types who would start a playoff game. 

And with Atlanta more than likely losing Max Fried after this season, there's a need for a top-tier starter to slot in behind Spencer Strider. Yes Atlanta has promising minor leaguers like AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, but counting on them for a full season isn't sustainable, at least for 2024.

Which brings me back to Morton. That $20M will be crucial for Atlanta if they want to shop in the 2nd tier of the starting pitcher market - remember, the Braves have yet to spend more than $22M a year on any player under Alex Anthopoulos. I honestly don't know which pitcher would be best if Morton doesn't come back, but we're going to dive into the starting pitcher class here pretty soon and write up all of Atlanta's options. 

Which offseason moves should the team make to make a deeper run in the playoffs? - Steven

Buddy, if I knew that, I'd have an office in Truist Park instead of my house. 

Alex Anthopoulos talked about the early end to the 2023 season in his press conference last Friday. There's no definite blueprint or single way forward, and that's the hard part. 

“I do think there’s certain things that are important in the postseason, but I don’t think that there’s a formula,” Anthopoulos tod the media. “Because whether it’s Phillies or any other team, they’d be winning the World Series each year. There’s plenty of great teams, and you could talk about the Braves teams that either got to the World Series or other teams that got there and didn’t win and so on.
I think power is important. It’s hard to string together hits. We have a ton of power, it didn’t materialize. That doesn’t mean we don’t still have a ton of power on the roster.”

It's going to be as frustrating to read this as it is to write it, but there's not some magical single addition that would fix it. The Braves offense flat out didn't show up, and not having a slam dunk #3 starter didn't help things. 

Some folks have speculated that it's a clubhouse leadership thing, and I think that's overblown. There's plenty of leadership on this roster, even if it's not the type of outwardly-vocal leadership fans can see on TV or in person. 

But there is something to the thought of having that edge, that attitude. We talked on the podcast about needing to find a "dawg", that player that you love when they're on your team but opposing teams can't stand. Joc Pederson provided an edge and a swagger when he joined the team prior to the 2021 trade deadline, and the immediate jolt he gave the team pushed Atlanta into being buyers at the deadline. The rest is history. 

(I'm not saying to sign Joc Pederson as a free agent, for the record.) 

I don't know if there's any one single signing that will fix this, unfortunately. Atlanta played poorly, against a really hot team that was built to beat them. That's all there is to it, and no single thing Alex Anthopoulos can do will fix that. The postseason's so random, with small sample sizes, that the best you can do is get there and hope the bounces go your way. AA said this in his presser, in fact: 

"But I think like anything else, you get to the postseason, just by nature of getting there, you have a chance to win a World Series."

Any team can beat any other team in the postseason, and this season has illustrated that more than ever before.  

Are Nicky Lopez and Vaughn Grissom staying? - Joyce

Yes. Lopez is an Arb 3, projected to earn $3.9M, and not hitting free agency until after 2025. I'm on the record as saying that I think the deadline trade for him could be as important as the Orlando Arcia one ended up being, both for depth reasons and because he's just two seasons removed from batting .300 with league-leading defense at multiple infield positions. He's the most valuable non-starter out of the position players, because he can step in at any position and probably upgrade your defense. 

Vaughn's future was actually addressed by AA in that same press conference - Atlanta wants to get his offensive potential into the lineup, and he's well-liked in the clubhouse. I wouldn't be surprised to hear news this offseason of him taking some reps in left field, potentially being part of a platoon with either Eddie Rosario (if Atlanta picks up his option) or a free agent acquisition.  

What Braves minor leaguers have a chance to make the team next year or might be traded to get pitching? - Mark 

Ooh, this is one of my favorite subjects. Thanks for asking, Mark.

(Editor's note: Lindsay is an award-winning host of a prospect and minor-league-focused podcast, Locked On MLB Prospects, so this is right up his alley.) 

We're in the last few steps of finalizing our prospect rankings right now - we're going to not only give you a Top 25, but we're writing scouting reports and 2023 season reviews for each. 

I'm high on several of these arms, and there's a few that have the ability to eventually be frontline starters if they hit their 90th percentile outcome. I don't know how many of them can meaningfully contribute in 2024, though, and so that's where a trade would come in. As I mentioned above, I think the frontline starter question is the biggest unknown of the offseason, even bigger than left field, but again it's hard to know how aggressive Atlanta will be there until we know what Morton is going to do. 

Key offseason dates for the Atlanta Braves

We had way more questions than we could get to in one mailbag, so there will be more of these coming out. Thanks to everyone who sent in questions, and as always, thanks for reading. I appreciate each and every one of you. 

Check out Braves Today on Socials!
Follow Braves Today on Twitter!
Like Braves Today on Facebook!
Check out the homepage for more Atlanta Braves News!
Subscribe to Braves Today on YouTube!
Get Exclusive Braves Merchandise from FOCO