NL East Preview: Do the Mets show signs of life this season?

The Atlanta Braves don't really know what to expect from the New York Mets in 2024

Some things change, and for the Atlanta Braves, some things happen to stay the same. 

A season after needing to chase down the New York Mets in August and September to win the 2022 NL East title by a tiebreaker on the season's final day, the Braves had no issues taking care of New York in 2023. Atlanta went 10-3 against the Metropolitains last season, with New York sitting 7.5 games back in mid-May and eventually tearing it down at the deadline. 

The Mets shipped out eight players off their major league roster over the summer, including significant amounts of cash to get better prospects in return. It bolstered the farm system, but the loss of major league talent resulted in New York falling to a 75-87 record, an unimaginably poor record when you consider that the Mets had the highest payroll in baseball history entering the 2023 season.  

Have the Mets made enough moves this offseason to get back into the divisional mix, or are they destined for another 4th place finish in 2024?

Key departures:

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Staff changes: Manager Buck Showalter (replaced by Carlos Mendoza), General Manager Billy Eppler (replaced by David Stearns)
Free agents: SP Carlos Carrasco
Player opt-outs: None
Club option declined: None
Non-tendered: DH Daniel Vogelbach, RP Trevor Gott, INF Luis Guillorme, RP Jeff Brigham, RP Sam Coonrod

The veteran exodus, initiated at the trade deadline last season, continued this offseason. Of the six players who walked, only one, Luis Guillorme (29), was under the age of 30. (And notably, Guillorme's the first one to sign somewhere else, agreeing to a deal with the Braves right after the New Year.)

The departures mean that there's ostensibly more playtime for some of the younger players, with former top prospects Brett Baty and Mark Vientos penciled in at third base and DH, respectively. 

Key additions:

Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Signed as free agents: SP Luis Severino (Yankees), INF Joey Wendle (Marlins), RP Austin Adams (Diamondbacks), RP Jorge López (Twins/Marlins/Orioles), OF Harrison Bader (Yankees/Reds), RP Michael Tonkin (Braves), SP Sean Manaea (Giants) 
Acquired via trade: RP Ryan Ammons (Red Sox), RP Yohan Ramirez (White Sox), SP Adrian Houser & OF Tyrone Taylor (Brewers)
Claimed off waivers: INF/OF Zach Short (Tigers), INF/OF Diego Castillo (Diamondbacks) - lost on waivers to Yankees, RP Penn Murfee (Mariners) - lost on waivers to Braves, C Tyler Heineman (Blue Jays), UTIL Cooper Hummel (Mariners) - later traded to Giants

New York's been busy adding to both their upper minors and major league roster, bringing in twelve players on minor league deals and signing seven major league free agents. But for the most part, with the exception of Sean Manaea's two year deal (and even that has an opt-out after year one), it's been one year deals for the Mets. 

The issue is that New York has a lot of talented prospects, but they're not quite ready yet. One year deals give the team flexibility to sell at the deadline and promote prospects in their place, pending the competitiveness of the major league roster. 

Possible prospect promotions:

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

As we mentioned earlier, a lot of the Mets top prospects aren't quite ready to debut. There's several position players, including SS/2B Luisangel Acuña (Ronald's brother),  2B/CF Jett Williams, and OF Drew Gilbert, who finished last season in AA and arguably need at least half a season, maybe more, before throwing them into the major leagues. 

Additionally, the team's top prospect, SS/3B Ronny Mauricio, tore his ACL in winter ball and is expected to miss most, if not all, of the 2024 season. 

But one welcome change for Mets fans is they may finally have some pitching prospects ready for major league time in 024, with the trio of Christian Scott, Mike Vasil, and Blade Tidwell spending part of the 2023 season in AA. Vasil's the farthest ahead, as he actually spent over half the season in AAA Syracuse, and could debut as early as Opening Day, depending on the team's plans and rotation depth after spring training. 

Remaining team needs:

John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Starting pitching, relief pitching, lefty power bat

It's not a bad FanGraphs depth chart, mind you, but it's also not what you think of when you think "New York Mets". 

Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso (on the final year of his deal, by the way), Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil are all still here, but there's also 35 year-old (and oft-injured) Starling Marte in right field, DJ Stewart splitting time with Mark Vientos at DH, and question marks around the pitching. 

Kodai Senga is the de facto #1 in the rotation, but #3 Luis Severino made only 18 starts last season (with a 6.65 ERA, to boot) and #2 José Quintana was limited to only 13 starts and 75.2 innings thanks to preseason rib surgery and then a lat strain late in the year. 

In the bullpen, Edwin Díaz should be back after tearing his ACL at the World Baseball Classic. but the #4 arm in this pen projects to be Braves castoff Michael Tonkin. While we love the Honky Tonk Man over here at Braves Today, that's a glaringly harsh lack of depth in the back end. 

2024 outlook:

Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Sportsbooks: O/U 82.5 Wins and +900 to win the division, per FanDuel
Projections: 75-87, per FanGraphs

It's hard to see where the rotation or the offense is better than last season. You're essentially banking on great health from the arms, a career year from Pete Alonso (in his platform year, so it could happen), and a bounce back from both McNeil and Nimmo. 

And of course, the looming spectre of another trade deadline sell is always there, as well. If there's one thing to credit this front office (and really, owner Steve Cohen) for last season, it's realizing this team wasn't a contender and aggressively tearing it down. 

Official prediction: UNDER on 82.5 and predicting a 4th place finish

Should the Atlanta Braves be worried about New York in 2024?

No. Everything has to go right for this team to be better than last year's version, and let's be honest: It's the Mets. They'll Mets it up at some point in time, because that's what they do. 

Other NL East Previews:
Miami Marlins - What are the Miami Marlins doing, exactly?
Washington Nationals - The Nationals are still in the rebuild  
New York Mets - Do the Mets show signs of life this season?
Philadelphia Phillies - Thursday


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Lindsay Crosby
LINDSAY CROSBY

Managing Editor for Braves Today and the 2023 IBWAA Prospects/Minors Writer of the Year. You can reach him at contact@bravestoday.com