No, Max Fried isn't "injury prone"

The Atlanta Braves lefthander gets some unwarranted flak because of his 2023 injuries, but he's historically provided both above-average production and performance

Lindsay Crosby | Jan 21, 2024

Fans of the Atlanta Braves have been pressing for the team to acquire a "frontline starter" this offseason, an acquisition that is easier said than done.

Not many of those supposed aces have been available this winter, with Aaron Nola re-signing with the Philadelphia Phillies (despite being reportedly offered more money by Atlanta) and both Shohei Ohtani (who won't pitch in 2024) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who's never pitched in MLB) signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

And some of the reason that fans have been asking for another frontline starter has been because one of their current aces, lefty Max Fried, is "injury prone" and can't be counted on to be available for the postseason.

But is that really true? Is Max Fried really injury prone? Let's dive into it.

Recency bias is definitely coloring the analysis

Yes, Max Fried's 2023 was full of injuries. After leaving his Opening Day start against Washington with a mild hamstring strain, one that kept him out for the minimum fifteen days, Fried hit the injured list twice more in the 2023 season.

A forearm strain, initially suffered in May, resulted in more than two months out of action, with Fried returning in early August. The end of his season was then cut short thanks to a recurring blister issue on his pitching hand, one that necessitated an injured list stint and undoubtedly cut into his postseason preparation.

But outside of that, Fried's been remarkably available.

Using Baseball Reference's Stathead span finder, since Fried became a full-time starter for the 2019 season and tracking all the way through the 2022 season, he was 19th in total innings pitched with 572.2. And they're not just empty innings -they're good innings. Fried's 3.06 ERA over that span is 10th best in the sample, with only two pitchers having both a better ERA and higher innings total than Fried from 2019 to 2022.

1: Gerrit Cole, NYY - 3.03 ERA in 667.1 innings pitched
2: Shane Bieber, CLE - 2.91 ERA in 588.1 innings pitched

Of players in the sample with at least 500 innings, Fried's winning percentage of .722 is 4th on the list, while his ERA+ of 142 is 7th.

When adding in 2023, Fried goes from 19th to 30th in total innings, but he's still one of the 30th heaviest-used starters in the sample even after his injury-marred 2023 season.

(Another "frontline starter" that has been moved this offseason, with the Tampa Bay Rays trading Tyler Glasnow to the Los Angeles Dodgers, has been arguably the most injury prone starter in MLB during that same span, pitching only 212.2 innings from 2019-2022, although he did add a career-high 120 innings last season.)

Most of the injuries have been a fluke

Most of what Fried's dealt with in his major league career haven't been recurring issues, with one significant exception.

Fried's injured list stints include time for lower back tightness in September of 2020, an issue that hasn't cropped up since, and a concussion in August of 2022. There have been two April injured list stints for hamstring strains, but they were incurred different ways. The 2023 injury was while Fried was attempting to cover 1st base on a groundout to Matt Olson, while the 2021 hamstring strain was while Fried was running the bases, going from 2nd to 3rd on a wild pitch to Ronald Acuña Jr after getting on via a double off of then-Marlins starter Pablo Lopez.

As we mentioned, Fried's second injured list stint last season was for a forearm strain, another issue that didn't crop back up after rest and rehab.

(Additionally, Fried's infamous illness prior to the 2022 NLDS - a viral infection that turned into a bacterial infection, causing the 190-pound Fried to lose fifteen pounds prior to his disastrous start against the Phillies, can't legitimately be held up as evidence in this argument. Everyone gets sick, and illnesses don't care when in the season it is. It's bad luck, and that's all.)

The notable exception: blisters

Fried's had several recurring issues with blisters in his career, and it's undoubtedly beyond the point of frustrating for everyone involved.

Fried's first major league missed time for blisters was in July of 2018, when he hit the injured list in July of that season for a left middle finger blister that was impacting his ability to grip the ball.

That same issue cropped up again in 2019, with Fried going on the IL in July of that season as well with blisters, as well as again in June of 2021. Anecdotally, the blister issue seems to recur after three to four months of action, with the September 2023 blister issue seemingly being tied back to Fried's early July return to rehab action after his IL stint for the forearm strain.

Most of the injured list time for the blisters has been minor, but it's reasonable to ask what sort of impact last season's blister issue impacted Fried's ability to prep for the postseason.

Final verdict

If you're counting by number of times on the injured list, it sure seems like a lot, with Fried hitting the IL nine times over his time in Atlanta. But as we've detailed, with the exception of the blister issue, most of Fried's issues have been fluky, isolated problems rather than recurring, connected issues. And even when he's missed time, most of the stints have been short, with Fried (as we said above) coming in as a top twenty pitcher by innings thrown from 2019 through 2022 and being one of the most effective arms during that time, to boot.

Availability is an asset, as well, and Fried's been available a lot more than he hasn't.

Heading into his final season before free agency, the now 30 year-old Fried is undoubtedly motivated to not only avoid missing time, but also producing back at the level of his 2022 season (where he was runner-up for the NL Cy Young award). And if he makes 28 or more starts, which would be the fourth time in the last five seasons (excluding 2020) that he's done so, maybe the injury-prone" narrative can finally be put to rest.