Previewing Atlanta's 2025 Rotation Options

The Atlanta Braves could potentially have a lot of options to choose from for starting pitchers next season

Lindsay Crosby | Mar 11, 2024

The Atlanta Braves have built some impressive depth through their MLB-leading investments in starting pitching candidates in the last few drafts.

So impressive, in fact, that we're struggling to figure out what a rotation in 2025 would look like, even assuming that pending free agents Max Fried and Charlie Morton both don't return, because there's just so many options.

Let's take a way too early look at how Atlanta, barring injury or free agency activity, could configure their starting rotation for 2025:

SP1: Spencer Strider

Don't overthink this - Spencer Strider is the unquestioned ace of the 2025 staff.

He's been the best pitcher in baseball during Grapefruit League play, having added a curveball after leading all of baseball in strikeouts last season.

If he's healthy, he's a lock to be the Opening Day starter in 2025.

SP2: Chris Sale

There's no bigger caveat of health than when talking about Chris Sale. But the veteran honestly looks great this spring, backing up his claim of being "the healthiest I've been in years" with his performance so far in Grapefruit League play.

He might not be the Chris Sale of the early 2010s, but he's still capable of being a postseason starter.

SP3: AJ Smith-Shawver

Yes he's young, and the spring training statistics haven't been the best.

Buuuut, he's also working on specific things instead of focusing on his results - throwing his changeup, better locations - and it's proving to be the talk of both Braves camp and pitching nerds everywhere.

After pitching a combined 87.1 innings last season, another season of swing work between AAA and the majors should have him at the point where he can take a full season workload of 150-160 innings or so in 2025.

SP4: Reynaldo López

And here's where the speculation begins - the usage of López through the 2024 season will give us an idea of what to expect in 2025. In his first season converting back to a starting role after multiple years as a reliever, workload is going to be a concern. López has pitched a combined 189 innings across the last three years, and so there's some speculation about if Atlanta moves him to the bullpen for the second half to manage his innings this season.

With a contract that jumps from $4M to $11M next year, he's getting paid like he's either going to be in a back-end starter role or the back-end of Atlanta's bullpen. And with the team potentially losing both Max Fried and A.J. Minter after the season, you can see a path to putting him in either place.

We'll project him in the 2025 rotation for now, as he's going to be there to open 2024, but we'll have a better idea in June of if he'll be staying as a starter or moving back to the bullpen.

SP5: Let the battles begin

Just like this offseason, the biggest position battle entering camp next year should be the 5th starter's role, as well.

From where we sit now, in March of 2024, the three biggest competitors in the competition look to be Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson, and top prospect Hurston Waldrep.

Elder, who went from being an All-Star in 2023 to fighting for a rotation spot this season, is probably always going to be in this situation owing to his below-average "stuff" - a fastball that averages only 90 mph and a slider and changeup that both get ground balls when located well, but get crushed when not. He's a valuable member of the roster that will always have a role as an innings-eater, but may not always have a guaranteed job going into any specific season.

Waldrep's the top prospect that throws outlier stuff - a splitter that is incredibly unique - but suffers from command and control issues that have led some to speculate might end up in a relief role. He'll have the 2024 season in both Gwinnett and Atlanta to work on better and more consistent locations, in hopes of being an rotation mainstay in 2025.

Ian Anderson's the real wild card here - returning from Tommy John surgery in the second half of the year, he's a big game pitcher that had already outperformed many of his peers in October by the age of 24 - a sub-1.50 ERA in his first eight postseason starts. It's going to be hard to argue that if he's back to his 2021 form, where he went 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA in 24 starts, that there's better options for the rotation than him.

Don't forget the prospects

The Braves cycled through a lot of starting pitcher options last season, with most of those players remaining with the organization. It's entirely conceivable that one of the group of Dylan Dodd, Darius Vines, or Allan Winans takes the next step in their development this season to become a MLB rotation candidate in 2025.

Additionally, Atlanta has several recent draftees that could move quickly in 2024 and establish themselves as firmly in the competition by the time Grapefruit League play rolls around in 2025, including Drue Hackenberg, Spencer Schwellenbach, Cade Kuehler, and Jhancarlos Lara.

And if Fried or Morton return...

Then throw this whole exercise out the window.

It doesn't feel likely, but it could technically happen.

Atlanta Braves Opening Day Roster Projection 3.0

Published Mar 11, 2024

LINDSAY CROSBY

Managing Editor for Braves Today and the 2023 IBWAA Prospects/Minors Writer of the Year. You can reach him at contact@bravestoday.com