This year's World Series matchup proves once and for all that the regular season doesn't really matter
The Atlanta Braves were eliminated in the NLDS for the 2nd straight year by the Philadelphia Phillies, and fans were not happy about it.
And most of the complaints didn't seem to be related to the fact that Atlanta was eliminated by the Phillies, of all teams, for the 2nd straight year (although that, and the postseason format that made the Braves play them in the first place was prevalent in the discourse), but rather that a team that was this good - this dominant - in the regular season got only four postseason games and were done.
But the regular season doesn't matter. We've learned that now.
Look at this year's World Series matchup, decided last night: Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks.
Texas had the 4th best record in the American League at 90-72, losing the timebreaker to Houston and holding the 5th seed as the 2nd Wild Card.
Arizona was tied for the 5th best record with Miami at 84-78, also dropping the tiebreaker and entering the postseason as the 6th seed.
And they're both in the World Series.
Texas was a dominant offense in the regular season, with a +165 run differential that was 2nd in the American League and 4th in the postseason field. But Arizona wasn't - their -15 run differential in the regular season was 2nd-lowest in the entire postseason field, behind Miami's -57.
They're both in the World Series.
We heard folks all across baseball say it when October started: the postseason's different. It's a different game in October.
The 2nd part of that needs to be "and what we did in the regular season doesn't matter."
It doesn't matter what your record was. It doesn't matter how dominant your offense was. It doesn't matter how deep your lineup is.
All that matters - the only thing that matters - is how well you play when you get there.
The postseason is dominated by small sample sizes. It doesn't matter who had the "better" roster - luck and randomness can change an entire series. One lucky (or unlucky) bounce can turn a loss into a win, or a good outing from a starter into a bad one, or a potential final out into a game-winning hit.
(And for the record: the postseason's not getting contracted - MLB will never give up the money that came with expanding the field. The format might get tweaked to avoid the longer layoff, but that's not a guarantee either.)
All you can do as a team, as a general manager, as an organization is make sure you get there.
Get to the postseason. What seed you are doesn't really matter - sure home field is nice to have, but did it do anyone a lot of good this October? The teams that had home field advantage - Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Houston - all didn't make it to the World Series, with three of the four not advancing past their opening round matchup. Both Texas and Arizona won games six and seven on the road in the League Championship Series to advance to the World Series.
Just get there. Get to the postseason. Punch your ticket, and hope you're playing well. Hope the bounces go your way. Hope the bats are hot, and your pitchers are healthy and effective. Your bullpen needs to be sharp, and your defense needs to get good bounces.
But really, at the end of the day, randomness reigns in the postseason. And the only thing any team can count on is getting there.
Billy Beane, former GM of the Oakland A's who was chronicled in the book (and movie) Moneyball, had a prescient quote about this:
"My s*** doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f****** luck."
That's the goal. Yes, winning the division is nice, because it secures your postseason spot. Home field advantage is great, because fans get to know they can watch the team play.
But the goal is to get there. That's all we can ask for. Nothing that happens after that is guaranteed. It's subject to luck, and momentum, and small sample sizes, and who is hot (and who is not), and yes - vibes.
And the sooner we come to realize that, the better. The sooner we as fans realize that we shouldn't expect to win simply because of how good we were in the regular season, the better.
Because nothing's guaranteed in the postseason.
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