What will Atlanta's NLDS rotation look like?

The Braves have both Max Fried and Charlie Morton on the IL, and so there's a lot of questions for the potential postseason rotation

Lindsay Crosby | Sep 24, 2023

It's safe to say that last four days have been not great for the Atlanta Braves.

Starter Max Fried, who has already been on the injured list twice this season (hamstring, forearm), went on the IL on Friday morning with a blister despite Atlanta's best efforts to adjust his workload to prevent it from forming.

But at least he'll be eligible for the NLDS.

Charlie Morton was added to the IL on Sunday morning and won't be eligible for the initial NLDS roster, although he's eligible for activation in time to be an injury replacement during the series, provided his finger heals and an Atlanta pitcher suffers an injury.

So what is going to start for the Braves in the NLDS? Let's look at the options Atlanta has for their first postseason matchup.

Spencer Strider

2023: 18-5, 3.73 ERA w/ 270 Ks, 54 BBs

Barring some sort of health issue, Spencer Strider's a lock to be starting, and probably game one (depending on the matchup). MLB's league leader in strikeouts, Strider's in the Cy Young conversation in the National League. While prone to the occasional blow-up, when Strider's got his locations set he's the most dangerous pitcher on this staff and needs to pitch as often as is reasonably possible.

Bryce Elder

2023: 12-4, 3.63 ERA w/ 126 Ks, 59 BBs

Assuming Fried is available for the NLDS, Bryce Elder lines up as your #3 for the NLDS. His effectiveness in the postseason is an unknown; Elder's a pitch-to-contact guy that runs a ground ball rate of > 50%, and how he does in the postseason might depend on which team Atlanta lines up with for the Divisional Series

Kyle Wright

2023: 0-3, 7.71 ERA w/ 28 Ks, 16 BBs

Wright's still working back to form after missing over three months with right shoulder inflammation that he's been chasing since at least January. Last year's MLB wins leader, with 21, he's capable of being an effective #3 or #4 in the postseason, but there's questions about if he'll have the required number of starts to get back into not only regular season form, but postseason form.

Jared Shuster

2023: 4-3, 5.64 ERA w/ 30 Ks, 26 BBs

Shuster's one of Atlanta's depth options that challenged for the 5th starter role in spring training but couldn't quite seem to have the success required to hold onto the job. One of Atlanta's 16 different starters this season, Shuster doesn't seem like a primary option to make the postseason roster as a starter. It's possible he gets run as a longman out of the bullpen, however, and might get a start in the final week of the season.

Dylan Dodd

2023: 2-2, 7.62 ERA w/ 14 Ks, 11 BBs

The other lefty challenger for the #5 role in spring training, Dodd flopped even harder than Shuster and hasn't gotten many opportunities in Atlanta in the 2nd half of the year. Despite being announced for the Arizona Fall League this year, Dodd's recent tweaks seen in AAA Gwinnett and use as a piggyback lend credence to thoughts that he may be a long man option in the postseason, as well.

AJ Smith-Shawver

2023: 1-0, 4.57 ERA w/ 18Ks, 10 BBs

Atlanta's #1 prospect (per MLB Pipeline), Smith-Shawver spent time on the injured list in August but has excelled since returning, with one hit allowed over his last 5.2 innings in AAA Gwinnett. He's another candidate to get called up in the final week for a start, and would be an interesting, but risky, choice for a postseason start if Atlanta were to get into a jam.

Allan Winans

2023: 1-1, 4.50 ERA w/ 26Ks, 4 BBs

The 28 year-old control artist doesn't have overwhelming stuff, so the initial thought is that Atlanta wouldn't want to start him in the postseason.

But, Brian Snitker has shown to appreciate pitchers that don't pass out free passes, and Winans walked just four in his twenty-two major league innings this year and had a 2.6 BB/9 walk rate in AAA Gwinnett.

If Atlanta has to go outside of the expected few rotation members for a postseason start or to cover some innings, Winans is a dark horse for the job.

Darius Vines

2023: 1-0, 4.40 ERA w/ 9Ks, 5 BBs

Vines, who has made one career start at the major league level, has been used several times as the long man when Atlanta's lost a starter early - he was a bulk pitcher after Morton left Friday night's game, pitching 3.1 innings.

But his relative inexperience and lack of "stuff" makes him less of an option for the postseason roster, with Vines undoubtedly behind Winans in the pecking order for postseason innings.

NLDS lineup prediction

As we sit on Sunday morning, reeling in the news of Morton's IL stint, it's entirely possible to freak out right now.

But the fact is, Atlanta's got plenty of pitchers. The right mix of those guys is what's crucial to figure out.

Here's what we have for Atlanta's most likeliest scenarios:

Gm1 (Saturday): Spencer Strider
Gm2 (Monday): Max Fried
Gm3 (Wednesday): Bryce Elder
Gm4 (Thursday, if needed): Spencer Strider
Gm5 (Saturday, if needed): Max Fried

Given the off days, it's possible for Atlanta to get by with just three starters for the NLDS, provided Max Fried is healthy enough to pitch twice on normal rest.

If Fried's unavailable for the NLDS, that's where it gets dicey - who takes the #3 spot after Bryce Elder moves to #2?

Hopefully this week is an audition for a lot of the younger starter options so that Atlanta can feel comfortable in either Kyle Wright's effectiveness or someone else's ability to step up and be that #3 in the postseason, if needed.

UPDATE: MLB.com Mark Bowman reports that Wright has moved to the bullpen, auditioning for a postseason relief job.

The hope is Morton would be available for the NLCS. Kyle Wright will be used out of the pen this week to audition for a relief role for the postseason
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) September 24, 2023

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Published Sep 24, 2023

LINDSAY CROSBY

Managing Editor for Braves Today and the 2023 IBWAA Prospects/Minors Writer of the Year. You can reach him at contact@bravestoday.com