What's the best batting order for the 2024 Atlanta Braves?

Now that we know all nine offensive starters, what's the best order to send them to the plate?

Author:
Lindsay Crosby
Dec 8, 2023 1:02 PM EST

The 2024 Atlanta Braves are pretty much set, at least on offense.

After this week's acquisition of Jarred Kelenic from the Seattle Mariners, the Braves will roll with some combination of him and infielder Vaughn Grissom, who is in winter ball right now converting to the outfield, in leftfield for 2024. Manager Brian Snitker has said there's no decision made on who would be the starter, as the plan won't deviate: Get to spring training and spend the 30 games evaluating both players before making a decision.

But for the purposes of this exercise, knowing how Snitker prefers giving starts to veterans, we'll lean towards Kelenic in left field.

So, what might Atlanta's batting order look like on Opening Day, barring no other acquisition between now and March 28th in Philadelphia?

Leadoff: OF Ronald Acuña Jr

Aug 23, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) gets an infield single against the New York Mets during the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports — Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2023 stats: .337/.416/.596 w/ 41 HRs, 149 R, 106 RBIs, 73 SBs

Let's not overthink this - Ronald Acuña Jr will bat leadoff in Atlanta until he no longer wants to. He's the biggest speed/stolen base threat on the roster, as well as one of the best power hitters and the best at getting on-base (team leading .416 OBP in 2023).

Don't fix what isn't broken.

2nd: 2B Ozzie Albies

Sep 16, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies (1) hits a two-run home run against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at loanDepot Park. — Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

2023 stats: .280/.336/.513 w/ 33 HRs, 96 Rs, 109 RBIs, 13 SBs

Atlanta's offensive performance went surged to a new level when Ozzie moved up to the #2 spot in the order, bumping Matt Olson to cleanup.

He sported a .299/.354/.535 slashline when hitting behind Acuña, with 18 of his 33 homers coming in those 78 games. The fact that he can switch-hit is an added bonus, as it means it's harder for opposing managers to play reliever matchups.

3rd: 3B Austin Riley

Oct 9, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley (27) hits a two run home run during the eighth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in game two of the NLDS for the 2023 MLB playoffs at Truist Park. — Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

2023 stats: .281/.345/.516 w/ 37 HRs, 117 Rs, 97 RBIs, 3 SBs

Austin Riley is the one guy you could make an argument for moving in the lineup - not because of poor performance in the three-hole, but because he's been even better as a cleanup hitter in his career: a .319/.370/.585 slashline with 39 homers in 158 games.

But having him behind Acuña and Ozzie absolutely juices his RBI potential, and he has a great combo of contact and power that can keep offensive momentum from those first two guys going.

(Plus, if he strikes out - he had a team-leading 172 in 2023 - it's either the end of a scoreless inning or there's still a chance for the cleanup hitter to drive in whichever of the first two guys got on.)

Cleanup: 1B Matt Olson

Sep 16, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) hits a home run against the Miami Marlins during the sixth inning at loanDepot Park. — Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

2023 stats: .283/.389/.604 w/ 54 HRs, 127 Rs, 139 RBIs, 1 SB

It's fair to say that Atlanta's offense hit a new gear when Matt Olson moved to cleanup last season.

Making the move down at the same time Ozzie moved up to #2, Olson batted an absurd .328/.425/.691 with 32 homers in his 85 games at cleanup. Most notably, he dropped his strikeout rate from 35.5% in the 2-hole to 21.97% when batting 4th.

5th: DH Marcell Ozuna

Aug 22, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves designated hitter Marcell Ozuna (20) follows through after hitting a single against the New York Mets during the second inning at Truist Park. — Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2023 stats: .274/.346/.558 w/ 40 HRs, 84 Rs, 100 RBIs, 0 SBAs

What a ride in 2023 for Marcell Ozuna - from statistically the worst hitter in baseball at the end of April (.084 average) to 40 homers and 100 RBIs at the end of the season.

Ozuna's the first guy that we saw move around the lineup last year, as he we saw him get 50 games of at-bats at two different spots (5th and 6th), another 25 games batting 7th, and also games batting cleanup and 8th.

But his best performance came behind Olson - a .328/.393/.692 slashline with 18 homers in just 52 games. Makes sense, as he's getting good pitches to hit because the odds were pretty good that someone was on base in front of him.

6th: C Sean Murphy

Apr 18, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Sean Murphy (12) watches his home run against the San Diego Padres during the fourth inning at Petco Park. — Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

2023 stats: .251/.365/.478 w/ 21 HRs, 65 Rs, 68 RBIs, 0 SBAs

Sean Murphy's 2023 was a tale of two halves, with a red-hot first half (.306 average with 17 homers and an All-Star Game start) giving way to an atrocious back half of the schedule (.159 average and only four homers) as the timeshare between him and Travis d'Arnaud evened out a bit more.

But there's always an adjustment period for a new player in a new city - Matt Olson's 2022 wasn't as good as he was capable of - and the frequent rotation of Murphy and TDA may have played a role. A regular, routine offseason combined with more time to acclimate to the significantly increased humidity and physical demands of playing catcher during the Atlanta summer (as opposed to moderate Oakland) will undoubtedly do Murphy some good. He's my "bounceback" performer pick for 2024.

7th: OF Jarred Kelenic

Sep 22, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Seattle Mariners left fielder Jarred Kelenic (10) hits a double against the Texas Rangers during the fifth inning at Globe Life Field. — Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

2023 stats (with Mariners): .253/.327/.419 w/ 11 HRs, 44Rs, 49 RBIs, 13 SBs

Jarred Kelenic batted in all nine spots for the Mariners last season, with more than 20 starts in three different spots (4th, 5th, & 6th), and double digit starts in two others (3rd & 7th).

He was by far the best when batting 6th, with a .388/.468/.713 slashline and six homers in just 23 games there.

But I'm not convinced the actual position mattered - 17 of those games came consecutively in April when he was on an absolute HEATER: .350/.412/.783 with seven homers, including a stretch of three homers in three games and a different stretch of four homers in four games.

Batting him 7th or 8th is probably where he'd start off the season for Atlanta, just given the strengths of the rest of the hitters above him.

8th: SS Orlando Arcia

Jul 1, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia (11) doubles to drive in a run against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at Truist Park. — Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2023 stats: .264/.321/.420 w/ 17 HRs, 66 Rs, 65 RBIs, 1 SB

Orlando Arcia's another player that got moved around the lineup a bit, but 100 of his 139 games saw him start in the #8 hole. He was technically best as a #9 hitter (.328/.386/.516 in 19 games), but it's not a large enough sample size to be statistically significant.

He'd probably be batting 8th or 9th (depending on where Kelenic was in the lineup) if Atlanta made an analytically-ideal lineup, but that's not what the Braves do...

9th: OF Michael Harris II

Aug 18, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder Michael Harris II (23) hits a triple against the San Francisco Giants in the second inning at Truist Park. — Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

2023 stats: .293/.331/.477 w/ 18 HRs. 76 Rs, 57 RBIs, 20 SBs

...Because if the Braves DID go with an analytically-optimized lineup, there's no way Michael Harris II would be the #9 hitter.

Batting in seven different spots, as backups rotated through the #9 spot and he occasionally covered for Ronald Acuña Jr at leadoff, Harris' stats as a #9 hitter (88 games) were better than just about any #9 hole hitter in MLB: .301/.334/.494 w/ 13 HRs.

That's a leadoff hitter for many teams, but both he and the Braves like him batting 9th. Said manager Brian Snitker, "I kind of like him there. It’s like another leadoff hitter." After temporarily being moved up to #2 while Ozzie was briefly out in August with a hamstring issue, Harris admitted it was tough. "Nine-hole has my heart, and it takes some adjusting to come up to the two-hole."

Look for Atlanta to leave Harris down there if at all possible, and if he can stay healthy all season (he dealt with both back and knee issues early last season), look out for a breakout season from Harris.