Braves Land Two Prospects On FanGraphs Top 100

The Atlanta Braves continue to see strong opinions about their pitchers in their minor leagues

The Atlanta Braves have focused on pitching in their minor league system, and it's beginning to pay off. 

As we discussed just a few days ago, Atlanta's devoted more bonus pool space in the MLB Draft to pitching than any other organization since 2018, with over 60% of all bonus pool dollars going to arms. And it's arguably been a success, with Atlanta both getting major league pitching (Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder) and trade chips (Ryan Cusick, Joey Estes, Kyle Muller, among others) out of it. 

And that focus on acquiring pitching is also evident in prospect rankings, with a significant portion of Atlanta's top prospects being future starting pitching options. 

FanGraphs unveiled their top prospect rankings for the Braves on Thursday, and named two Top 100 prospects for Atlanta - right-handers AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, both coming in as Future Value "50" grades on the 20-80 grading scale (denoting a floor as a #4 starter at the major league level; you can read more about FanGraphs grading system HERE.)

#63 - AJ Smith-Shawver

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Similar to our analysis when we debated Smith-Shawver vs Waldrep for the organization's #1 prospect, FanGraphs notes that Smith-Shawver is still holding plenty of projection because he's so new to pitching, having only completed two years as a full-time baseball player since being drafted out of high school. 

They have good notes on some of the mechanical adjustments Atlanta's made with Smith-Shawver, including adjusting his release point to get more horizontal movement on his slider and how they tweaked his arsenal as he's been in the minors to focus on the slider and then the curveball for development. 

The success Smith-Shawver's already shown is doubly impressive when you consider how he's currently working as a "sum of his parts" pitcher versus having developed his secondary options to be plus or better offerings. It's an enticing package, and they've got him #1 in the system for that reason. 

#85 - Hurston Waldrep

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FanGraphs opines that Waldrep could probably survive as a reliever in MLB right now, if Atlanta chose to, but we're in agreement that continuing his development as a starting pitcher should remain the priority for as long as possible. 

FanGraphs notes that he didn't throw his curveball much after college, speculating he may have scrapped the pitch for a cutter, but most Braves fans know that this organization likes to have their newer minor leaguers temporarily scrap their curveballs in favor of polishing their sliders before reintroducing the curveball back later; Smith-Shawver's 2022 & 2023 was a great example of this, as he initially shelved the pitch before bringing it back last season. 

Where FanGraphs differs from us, and likely explains them putting him 2nd while we have Waldrep 1st, is in the future fate of the Splitter King. Owing to Waldrep's propensity to take his fastball out of the zone for chase and for effectiveness, resulting in the splitter being a chase pitch below the zone, FanGraphs doesn't believe he'll be able to succeed as a starter. 

It's definitely a feature to watch for the non-roster invitee to spring training, who reported yesterday to spring training in North Port. 

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Another former Brave on the list is Royber Salinas of the Oakland A's, coming in at #87 on the list after he was moved in the Sean Murphy trade. He's seen as an intriguing back end of the rotation option, owing to his robust five-pitch arsenal and smooth mechanics, although he was a bit streaky last season and also missed time with an elbow injury. 

Braves Have Invested Heavily in Prospect Pitching In Last Six Drafts

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