MLB.com names AJ Smith-Shawver as a leading 2024 Rookie of the Year candidate

The Braves righty, who just turned 21 this week, is named as a prospect to watch for in 2024

Atlanta Braves top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver, a right-handed pitcher, has been named as Atlanta's leading Rookie of the Year candidate for 2024 and a player to watch for next season. 

The crew of MLB Pipeline, writing over at MLB.com, singled out Smith-Shawver for both the quality of stuff and the opportunity he'll have next season in Atlanta to slide into the rotation:

After going from High-A to the big leagues in one season, it’s still not exactly clear what Smith-Shawver is, but we know his stuff will play. The fastball flirts with triple-digits and his bat-missing slider reaches the upper-80s, while he started folding back in a slower curve and the changeup can be effective. The signing of Reynaldo López makes the rotation competition a bit more stiff, but Smith-Shawver’s stuff and feel should get him plenty of big league innings.

Smith-Shawver, who turned 21 just this week, pitched at four different levels last season. Across 15 minor-league starts, totaling 62 innings, he went 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 79 strikeouts (11.5 K/9). 

In six major league appearances in the regular season, including five starts, Smith-Shawver went 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA, striking out 20 batters in 25.1 innings. 

Originally described as a "Spencer Strider starter kit" owing to his usage of mostly just a fastball and slider, Smith-Shawver added a curveball to the mix this season and spent focus on improving his changeup, as well. 

There's still things to work on with the arsenal - MLB hitters batted .364 against the curveball in a small sample size and Smith-Shawver struggled to consistently land the slider for strikes.

AJ Smith-Shawver's slider locations in 2023 in MLB - 106 total pitches / MLB Statcast

But the talent is undeniable - he's not only Atlanta's consensus #1 prospect (including in our rankings), but a consensus Top 100 prospect across all of baseball. 

And reportedly, he stated workouts this offseason in early November, focusing on getting ready to physically handle a starter's workload. The Braves used sixteen different pitchers to start games in 2023, thirteen of them actual starters, and while injury played a role in the relatively high number, performance was an issue as well. 

It's not smart to count on Smith-Shawver holding down a starting role all year - his career innings are only 164.1 across three seasons in the minors - but after throwing 87.1 in the regular season last year and another 2.2 in the postseason, 110 to 120 innings in 2024 isn't out of the question. 

And while it's unlikely a starting pitcher would win Rookie of the Year at all, nevermind one that threw only 120 innings, it's still a sign of his undeniable talent to be singled out this early as a contender for the award. 

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