Top prospect analyst mocks pitcher Thatcher Hurd of LSU to the Braves at pick 24

Now that the draft order is set, mock drafts and predictions are starting to come in for the 2024 MLB Draft

Last week's Winter Meetings saw the 2nd year of the MLB Draft Lottery, designed to disincentivize tanking from non-contending teams. 

And it worked! The teams that were all tied for the best odds of getting the #1 overall pick, the Oakland Athletics, Kansas City Royals, and Colorado Rockies, are picking 4th, 6th, and 3rd, respectively. Leaping them in the draft order are the Cleveland Guardians, who had the 9th worst record and only a 2% chance of picking at #1, and the Cincinnati Reds, who missed the playoffs by a single game and had only a 0.8% of picking at #1 overall. 

(The odds of both the Guardians and Reds moving up to #1 and #2 overall come out to about 5000-to-1, and this is Cleveland's first ever #1 overall pick.)

As a playoff team, Atlanta wasn't eligible to be moved up in the lottery, but the 1st round's draft order being finalized cemented Atlanta into the #24 pick, the exact same selection they had last year, where they took Florida right-handed pitcher Hurston Waldrep. 

In a recent mock draft on his podcast Locked On MLB Prospects, host Lindsay Crosby made a selection for Atlanta, giving them right-handed pitcher Thatcher Hurd of LSU at the spot. 

Here's what Crosby said about the selection: 

Thatcher heard out of LSU, a guy - you look at the fastball, it runs up to 96 or so. Fantastic slider with great spin rates. They're (Atlanta) big on the spin rates. They're big on the carry on the fastball up in the zone. He's got a plus curve ball as well.

Hurd went 8-2 last season for LSU, working in both relief and starting roles. He struck out 84 batters in 63.1 innings, good for 11.9 K/9, but also walked 40 (5.7 BB/9). 

Thatcher Hurd, Filthy Breaking Balls. 😷 pic.twitter.com/mJGPlhq2OP

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 27, 2023

Crosby noted Hurd's similarities to last year's first rounder Waldrep when discussing the selection: 

"But battling that command and control reminds me of a guy like a Hurston Waldrep as far as it's a good fastball, it's a dominant secondary pitch, (but) you've got a little concerns about the walk rate."

Waldrep, for reference, put up a 5.0 BB/9 in college at Florida last season and 4.9 BB/9 in his 29.1 minor league innings after the draft. That hasn't slowed the enthusiasm for Waldrep amongst Atlanta's front office, however, with president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos acknowledging last week that Waldrep would receive an invite to major league spring training and have a legitimate opportunity to compete for the 5th starter's role in Grapefruit League action. 

Hurd started his collegiate career at UCLA, exploding on the scene as a true freshman with a 2-0 record and 1.06 ERA in 34 innings before a stress fracture in his back knocked him out for the rest of the season in June. He transferred to LSU for 2023 and worked both in midweek starts and out of the bullpen, unable to break into a stacked weekend rotation that featured #1 overall pick Paul Skenes and fellow 1st rounder first rounder Ty Floyd. 

But with eight pitchers taken in last year's draft, Hurd figures to be a key part of the 2024 rotation for the reigning national champions LSU Tigers. He's penciled into the weekend rotation with fellow draft-eligible (and projected 1st rounder) Luke Holman and incoming lefty transfer Gage Jump. 

Other common MLB mock drafts results include Baseball America sending Oxford, AL prep shortstop Carter Johnson to Atlanta and MLB Pipeline sending Scottsdale, AZ prep lefty Cam Caminiti to the Braves. 

Baseball America mocks a prep shortstop to Atlanta in the 2024 MLB Draft

You can listen to Locked On MLB Prospects wherever you get your podcasts or on YouTube. Host Lindsay Crosby is the 2023 IBWAA Prospect and Minors Writer of the Year, and in addition to his work with the podcast, he's the Managing Editor of Braves Today. 

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