Braves newcomer nominated as a player who could have a breakout season

Could this be the year the Atlanta Braves get a breakout in left field?

The Atlanta Braves haven't had an everyday left field option since, seemingly, Rico Carty patrolled the position in the 1960s.

But that could finally change this year. 

During most of his time in the minor leagues, Jarred Kelenic was viewed as one of the top prospects in the league after being drafted by the New York Mets with the sixth pick of the 2018 MLB Draft. He only spent one summer with the Mets before being dealt across the country to Seattle in the Robinson Canó trade, and made his "Top 100 prospects" debut at No. 56 in 2019. 

After a stellar 2019 campaign, where he finished with a .291 batting average, 31 doubles, five triples, 23 homers, and 68 RBI, Kelenic jumped all the way up to No. 11 on the list. In 2021, Kelenic was ranked as the No. 4 prospect in the MLB and he finally made his debut with the Seattle Mariners.

The expectations for Kelenic were through the roof. Pressure and expectations can do one of two things: They can mold you into a better version of yourself or they can crush you. What is going to happen when you run into a rough stretch? It's baseball. It's the most humbling sport on the planet. There will be days when you go five-for-five and days when you go zero-for-five. How do you handle the grind?

Pressure and expectations can do one of two things: They can mold you into a better version of yourself, or they can crush you.

Kelenic finished 2021 with a .181 batting average and 2022 with a .141 batting average, finishing below the Mendoza line in back-to-back seasons. (If you don't know, the Mendoza line is a .200 batting average, named for SS Mario Mendoza, who failed to crack .200 in five of his nine MLB seasons. Coincidentally here, he played for the Mariners for one of those four seasons.) 

Jarred's back was against the wall and the fanbase that brought on the pressure and expectations had now turned on him. His relationship with the front office had waned. With all the odds stacked against him, he came out swinging in 2023.

Jarred Kelenic's MLB Statcast page for 2023 / MLB Statcast

Kelenic came out swinging Against All Odds as if his name was Phil Collins and it was 1984. He sprayed the ball all over the yard and was in the 91st percentile in sweet spot percentage. He was barreling up pitches better than he ever had before. 

That was, until he barreled up a water cooler in the dugout with his foot, breaking it and going on the injured list for two months. 

Hey, Braves fans have seen it before. Except for us, it was Huascar Ynoa breaking his hand when he punched a bench.

That injury derailed Kelenic's 2023 season and after the season was over, he was dealt to the Atlanta Braves. All of the expectations and the pressure he had faced in Seattle was now left in the past and he was given a clean slate. That's why Mark Bowman of MLB.com thinks that Kelenic is poised for a breakout season.

"In Seattle, Kelenic was always going to deal with the pressure of being the top prospect who the Mariners gained when they dealt All-Star closer Edwin Díaz to the Mets. Yeah, the Braves have made a significant financial investment (nearly $17 million) in Kelenic’s future. But in Atlanta, he should be free from the pressure he felt while playing with the Mariners.

He’ll have the potential to hit 20-plus homers while sitting near the bottom of a lineup that features Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley and Matt Olson. Having the chance to work with Chipper Jones and the Braves’ many other hitting instructors should also help this left-handed slugger begin to realize his great potential." - Bowman

Kelenic has a clean slate in Atlanta and he will be the Braves starting left fielder. He can get back to the basics of baseball. He can reinvigorate his love for the game. I know it sounds cliché, but you play your best version of baseball when you are having fun. Kelenic was not having fun in Seattle. 

Coming to Atlanta and being in a clubhouse with players like Ronald Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris will help him play loose and more confident. 

Early Fangraphs projections have Kelenic outproducing Eddie Rosario, but not necessarily "breaking out" with star level production. But as those were initially done when Kelenic was expected to share time with now-traded Vaughn Grissom, they're probably due for an update.  

Here's to hoping Kelenic has an incredible 2024.

Jarred Kelenic: "I'm fired up" about joining the Atlanta Braves

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