Atlanta Braves Interest in Seth Lugo Doesn't Seem to Fit

It's been reported that the Atlanta Braves have shown interest in free agent starting pitcher Seth Lugo, but he doesn't seem like a great fit.

It's been reported that the Atlanta Braves have shown interest in free agent starting pitcher Seth Lugo, but he doesn't seem like a great fit. 

Any reports or rumors involving the Atlanta Braves have to be taken with a huge grain of salt as the front office doesn't leak anything. Alex Anthopoulos noted the other day just how wrong a lot of the reporting around the Braves has been this offseason. 

But Jon Heyman reported in the New York Post that "the Braves are one of the teams in the bidding for the free agent." That makes it seem like there is more than interest, but the Braves are actually exchanging numbers. 

On one hand, it's great to know the Braves aren't satisfied with the current starting rotation and still exploring other options. 

But Seth Lugo? 

He's coming off a fine season in San Diego, where he become a full-time starting pitcher for the first time since 2017. In a pitcher-friendly home ballpark, he posted a 3.57 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, and had 140 strikeouts in 146.1 innings pitched. 

That's the most innings he's thrown in his professional career. Perhaps the Braves believe there is reason to hope the 34-year-old can suddenly throw 170 innings since there isn't as much mileage on the arm, having been a reliever for so long. 

Looking at the metrics for Lugo in 2023, they don't exactly predict a pitcher who is on the rise. 

He had an xERA of 4.42 and an xBA of .260. 

MLB Trade Rumors predicted him to get a 3-year deal for $42 million. 

That's $14 million a year for someone who doesn't have a long track record as a starter, struggles to get through a lineup a third time, and is going into his age 34 season. 

Lugo could certainly provide solid depth in the rotation and perhaps pair with Reynaldo Lopez or AJ Smith-Shawver in a piggyback situation. 

But if this is the deal the Braves make to significantly upgrade their rotation, that would be a letdown. 

What's the truth about Atlanta's pursuit of free agent Shohei Ohtani?

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