Can the Atlanta Braves replace Max Fried and Kyle Wright from within?
With news that the Atlanta Braves are looking at multi-month absences from both Kyle Wright and Max Fried, Atlanta Braves fans are (rightfully) concerned.
I mean, look at 2022: Those two guys combined to go 35-12 in sixty starts for the Braves, with a 2.83 ERA in 365.2 innings. Combine that with the loss of Ian Anderson's 111.2 innings, first to ineffectiveness (a 5.00 ERA) and then, ultimately, to Tommy John, and it seems logical to be concerned.
Many fans are clamoring for a trade, and there's seemingly a laundry list of guys that might get moved: The expiring contracts of Lucas Giolito or struggling veteran Lance Lynn, of the Chicago White Sox. The expiring contract of Eduardo Rodriguez, of the Detroit Tigers. Maybe Vince Velasquez, Pittsburgh Pirates, now that the Pirates have come back down to earth after their red-hot start.
Oh yeah, and that Shohei Ohtani guy out in Los Angeles. Plenty of options.
But it's not going to happen in May.
For one, not many impactful trades happen in May. So many teams believe they're still in it this early, especially with the expanded playoffs that puts three wild card teams into the postseason.
Don't believe me? Here's longtime Braves beat writer David O'Brien, of The Athletic:
Or here's a quote from Alex Anthopoulos himself:
"Trade season doesn’t really begin until the All-Star break so trades aren’t likely,” Alex Anthopoulos told The Athletic ($) Wednesday. “Of course, everyone still stays engaged, but realistically there’s a reason almost all deals get done around the trade deadline."
But two, Atlanta has faith in their internal options, using some combination of Dylan Dodd, Jared Shuster, and Michael Soroka. Let's look at all three pitchers and if they're capable of filling the two rotation spots, as well as dig around the system (and free agency) to see what else might be out there and available.
Internal options
When looking internal, it's appropriate to first glance at the dual lefty prospects that battled for the 5th starter's job out of spring training, Dylan Dodd and Jared Shuster.
Shuster, who won the job and made two starts before going back to Gwinnett, went 0-1 with a 8.31 ERA against the Nationals and Padres. He pitched 8.2 innings, striking out five with nine walks. Since going back to AAA Gwinnett, he's looked much more comfortable, starting five games and going 2-0 with a 3.28 ERA in 24.2 innings, including six no-hit innings against Charlotte on May 5th with three walks and five strikeouts. Consistently going 85-90 pitches deep in his starts, he's fully stretched out and seemingly ready for another opportunity to take the ball at the Major League level.
(Of note, his most recent start had a stumble: 5.2 innings against Nashville yesterday with four runs on seven hits, albeit with only one walk and six strikeouts.)
Dodd technically didn't make the Opening Day roster - he was an injury replacement early for Max Fried - started two games early in the season, as well, going a combined 9.1 innings against St Louis and San Diego. The Cardinals game (six hits, one run in five innings) went much better than the Padres start (ten hits, seven runs in 4.1 innings), but Atlanta still used him for a spot start last week against Miami, where he went six innings with three runs on eight hits in a 6-3 Braves win.
Dodd's made four starts in Gwinnett, although interestingly, he ALSO struggled against Nashville this week, giving up eight hits and seven runs in 3.1 innings on Tuesday.
(Maybe the Nashville Sounds are just a good team?)
Which brings us to Michael Soroka. The 2019 All-Star and Rookie of the Year runner-up suffered a torn Achilles early in the shortened 2020 season, then re-ruptured it in 2021 on the first day he was permitted to remove the protective boot he wore after a minor clean-up procedure he had. He's been fighting to come back, and has spent the season in AAA Gwinnett, toiling away at knocking the rust off and getting back into game form.
He's used the time away to rehab well, looking noticeably stronger in his lower-half. Still under 25, he's destined to return to the bigs, but he's got to get right in Gwinnett first.
His season results are mixed: He's started five games, with a 5.23 ERA in his 20.2 innings pitched. He's struck out nineteen while walking only five, a 2.2 BB/9 number that's on par with his best seasons in Atlanta. He's allowed no or one runs in three of his five starts on the season, and only one home run on the season.
But there's a reason his ERA in 5.23 - he also had a blowup, a three inning outing against the Buffalo Bisons where he gave up ten hits and eight runs (seven earned) in three innings. Additionally, opponents are batting .326 against Soroka (although it's been limited to only five extra base hits in the twenty-total hits he's allowed.) Also of note, he's only made it past the fourth inning once, where he took a shutout into the sixth against Omaha, throwing 91 pitches. He's been pulled from three games before breaking the 70 pitch plateau.
This season was seen as a "get-right" year for Soroka, with him maybe being essentially a deadline addition by coming up and taking some spot starts over the summer, at best. That timeline will definitely be accelerated - there's rumblings he's being considered to start Sunday's game three against Toronto.
All this is to say: there's options, but none are a slam dunk. You may see more bullpen games - last night's went well enough for Atlanta to win, and the Braves threw three in the 2021 postseason (including two in the World Series) on their way to a championship.
Manager Brian Snitker addressed those bullpen games this week: “We kinda lucked out,” Snitker said. “I looked back and watched them after the fact and I’m thinking, ‘What are we doing?’ But that’s kind of where we were. We would’ve rather had a bona fide starter, but I don’t think we did. We made the best of the situation and it worked out.”
And with the way the offense has been putting up tons of runs almost every night, it definitely helps. Entering Wednesday's game, Atlanta was first in the National League in runs per game (5.47), total bases per game (15.83), and OPS (.809). They were second in home runs, at 1.64 per game, and the top four of the lineup (Ronald Acuña Jr, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Sean Murphy) have combined for 33 home runs, 111 runs, and 101 RBIs, powering Atlanta to a NL-leading 32 first-inning runs.
With the offense clicking, it feels like you're still able to make this work through the summer until the trade deadline - barring, that is, any more injuries.
Because you're using that rotation depth, right now. The margin for error is gone.
All that's left is to go out there and handle business.
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