Takeaways from Atlanta's Saturday loss to the Blue Jays
The Atlanta Braves dropped game two, and the series, this afternoon to the Toronto Blue Jays, 5-2. Here's what you need to know from the contest:
Happy "Marcell May" to all who celebrate
Marcell Ozuna, the much maligned designated hitter who started the season incredibly cold, has made May his month.
Ozuna's 10-29 in May, with five homeruns and ten RBIs. He had been consistently hitting balls hard all season, sitting in the 77th percentile for Barrel rate on Statcast, but was having atrocious luck on balls in play - his expected batting average entering Saturday was .218, nearly eighty points higher than his actual .151.
He's also improved some of the peripherals - his chase rate is down from 33.4% to 25%, with the strikeout rate dropping from 24.1% to 22.2% and his walk rate more than doubling, from 6.1% to 13.1%.
If Marcell has re-discovered his power stroke again, it does nothing but lengthen this lineup and gives Atlanta multiple options for DH between him and Travis d'Arnaud.
Something's wrong with AJ Minter
I mean, that's obvious - look at the stats: Minter's 2-4 with a 7.50 ERA in nineteen games this season, with seven saves in nine chances. He entered this game in the 7th and allowed three straight singles and a sacrifice fly to Toronto, taking it from a 2-2 tie to a 4-2 lead for the Blue Jays.
He's getting hit hard; the opponent slugging percentage on both his four-seam fastball and cutter are both over .400. All three of the hits in the 7th were off of the cutter, while the sacrifice was a off of a fastball left over the outside third of the plate.
Braves beat writer Mark Bowman of MLB.com pointed out both how ineffective and how...normal AJ Minter has looked.
There's not a lot different for Minter on the metrics - his velocity is slightly down on both the fastball and the cutter, from 96.6/90.3 to 95.7/89.4, but it's not enough to account for the drastic swing in hitter outcomes. His extension on those pitches is better and his whiff rate (swing and miss) is actually up on the cutter in 2023, although slightly down on the fastball.
The only noticeable change is usage: After throwing his changeup almost 20% of the time in 2022, he's dialed it back in 2023 to 11.9%, with most of that difference going into the cutter. It's possible that sequencing and/or game-calling issues between Minter and new catcher Sean Murphy is to blame, but either way, it's something Atlanta needs to figure out soon.
The offense isn't blameless here
Everyone will focus on Minter's struggles, but Atlanta's offense struggled to string together base hits for the second straight game. With runners in scoring position, Braves batters were 0-9 and left a total of ten men on base.
We discussed this on the podcast before the series: With two members of your rotation out for multiple months, Atlanta's offense needs to continue their torrid start to give the pitching staff some runway to figure it out.
The difference in this series has been Atlanta's offense registering only nine hits and two runs in eighteen innings of baseball.
Who starts tomorrow?
Atlanta went with TBD for tomorrow's starter, waiting to see what the bullpen usage looked like over the weekend. The Braves used five pitchers for their eight innings - Elder gave Atlanta a more-than-adequate five innings of five hits, two run ball. Jesse Chavez and Dylan Lee combined to take the 6th, with Minter in the 7th and Joe Jimenez in the 8th.
If Atlanta were to go bullpen game for the series finale, there's options. Collin McHugh last pitched on Wednesday (32 pitches), so he should theoretically be able to give you a few. The go-to "opener" for Snitker, Dylan Lee, threw 31 pitches on Wednesday and faced only one batter today, using five pitches. Even accounting for the throwing required to get hot, he should be able to give you two or so innings on Sunday. Nick Anderson and Raisel Iglesias also last threw on Wednesday, so all signs point towards that being the plan.
The concern with a bullpen game is that Atlanta has no off days until Thursday - they have a matinee tomorrow at 1:37PM ET and then fly to Arlington for a matchup on Monday night versus the Rangers. Do you want to tax your bullpen by asking them to cover nine innings with three more games on the horizon?
UPDATE: It's confirmed, a bullpen game is on the docket for Sunday. The starter will be Collin McHugh.
What's next?
Atlanta has one more game in the series, a Sunday afternoon Mother's Day matinee. First pitch is at 1:37PM ET. The game broadcast, with Voice of the Braves Brandon Gaudin, is available inside Braves Country on Bally Sports Southeast, and is available on MLB.TV outside of the broadcast area. The radio call, with Ben Ingram, is available locally on 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan or outside the Atlanta market on the Atlanta Braves Radio Network or MLB.com.
More stories from the Blue Jays series
WATCH: The Braves take a 2-0 lead over the Blue Jays after a Marcell Ozuna two-run homer
Lineup, how to watch Atlanta's game two in Toronto against the Blue Jays
Takeaways: Offense Wastes a Brilliant Start from Spencer Strider
Lineup, how to watch the Braves series opener in Toronto against the Blue Jays
Atlanta Braves Hope to Survive a Brutal Stretch of Games
Podcast: Max Fried and Kyle Wright are out till July?
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