Should Chicago Cubs Consider an Opener for Taillon Amid Struggles?

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon has run into difficulty in the early innings of games. Should David Ross consider using an opener, the next time Taillon is due in the rotation?

Sunday's game — the last of a four-game series against the Cincinnati Reds — was a continuation of a pattern for Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon.

Taillon surrendered back-to-back home runs in the first inning, which gave the Reds a 2-1 lead. The Cubs responded with two runs of their own in the top of the second, reclaiming the lead. Then, in the inning's bottom half, Taillon gave up another homer, this one scoring two runs. 4-2, Reds.

Suddenly, Taillon settled in nicely, retiring the next eight hitters that he faced. Taillon allowed just three men to reach base over the course of the third, fourth and fifth innings.

But in the sixth, Taillon ran into trouble, allowing Christian Encarnacion-Strand to reach second base safely on a double. Despite striking out the ensuing batter, with two outs and a runner on second, Cubs manager David Ross had seen enough. The Cubs skipper went to his bullpen, pulling his starter at 91 pitches. The move proved to be ineffective, as Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson singled home the go-ahead run, putting Cincinnati on top, 5-4.

The Cubs would go on to score seven unanswered runs, en route to a critical 15-7 victory, but the day summed up Taillon's 2023 season in a nutshell.

Over the winter, the 31 year-old signed a four-year, $68 million contract with the Cubs. It was the seventh-richest free agent deal signed by a pitcher in the offseason, and more lucrative than the contracts signed by Nathan Eovaldi (two years, $34 million), Zach Eflin (three years, $40 million) and Michael Wacha (four years, $26 million).

Taillon's first 25 starts with his new team have left more to be desired. The veteran has a 5.73 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .276 Opponent Batting Average across 127.1 innings pitched, but it hasn't been all bad. In fact, his splits give reason for hope.

Taillon's splits suggest a stark contrast between how he has pitched early in games and how he has pitched in the middle of games. The first two innings of a start generally aren't pretty. During innings 3 through 5, the veteran tends to settle into a groove, as he did on Sunday.

Here is a look at Taillon's splits this season by inning.

1st inning: 25.0 IP, 30 H, 5 BB, 11 HR, 7.92 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, .297 BA, .330 OBP, 1.003 OPS

2nd inning: 25.0 IP, 32 H, 6 BB, 4 HR, 7.20 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, .299 BA, .348 OBP, .852 OPS

3rd-5th inning: 64.1 IP, 65 H, 19 BB, 6 HR, 3.37 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, .246 BA, .300 OBP, .652 OPS

6th inning: 10.0 IP, 20 H, 2 BB, 3 HR, 11.70 ERA, 2.20 WHIP, .417 BA, .431 OBP, 1.151 OPS

Across 25 starts, Taillon has a 7.92 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in the first inning. In the second inning, he has a 7.20 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Hitters are teeing off on Taillon in the first two innings of games.

In innings three through five, Taillon has been a wildly different pitcher. His ERA is down to 3.37, closer to where the Cubs' front office likely expected him to be when they inked the former second overall MLB Draft pick to a four-year deal.

"He’s a guy we’ve had our eye on for a long time,” Cubs vice president Jed Hoyer said last winter after announcing the signing of Taillon. “He’s a really good starting pitcher. He’s been really consistent. He’s continued to get better as he’s gotten healthier in his career."

Hoyer also suggested that he believed Taillon had untapped potential, and that the journeyman would continue to improve, and reach the pinnacle of his career on the north side of Chicago.

"Obviously, it was kind of a rocky road for him early on, but since he's been healthy and getting with the Yankees, I think he's pitched really well," Hoyer said. "Yeah, I think there's still more in the tank. Obviously, we're excited to get him."

Last week, in his previous start, the Brewers racked up five runs in the first two innings. Then, Taillon settled in, allowing just three baserunners over four scoreless innings. Taillon has been highly productive for the Cubs in spots, he just has struggled to put it all together in his first year with the team. Taillon has tallied just five quality starts all season.

If it isn't the first two innings that give him trouble, it's the sixth inning. Taillon has pitched into the seventh just twice this season. He's pitched in the sixth in about half his starts (13). 

Albeit a smaller sample size, Taillon has an 11.70 ERA in the sixth inning of games. This number can be deceptive though, considering that it includes instances such as Sunday's, where Taillon may not have allowed a run, had Ross kept him in to finish the sixth. Taillon is taxed whenever a reliever allows an inherited runner to score. It's also not uncommon for a pitcher to be at his worst when he is running out of gas, later in the game. Taillon's poor sixth inning numbers could also reflect that the starter is being left in the game too long by his manager, at times.

According to the splits, Taillon is at his best between his 51st and 75th pitch. Taillon has an opponent OPS+ of 147 from pitch 1 through pitch 25. Between pitch 26 and 50, his Opponent OPS+ is 127. From pitch 51 to 76, his OPS+ is down to 56. 56! 

So, what is the source of Taillon's early game struggles and how can it be rectified? That is a question for the Cubs' data and analytics department. If Taillon is getting better as the game goes along, what is that reflective of? Is Taillon losing velocity as he gets deeper into the game, forcing him to use more off-speed and breaking pitches? Is he more effective when he uses more off-speed and breaking pitches? What pitches is Taillon throwing at the start of games, and does his pitch usage differentiate from the start and middle of games? Are these numbers indicative of Taillon struggling in high leverage situations (where opponents slash .327/.385/1.094) and thriving in lower-pressure situations (.256/.303/.693)? Does Taillon need to change something about his pregame routine? I do not have an answer to any of these questions. However, there is one small tweak I might try when Taillon's turn is up next in the rotation.

For whatever reason, Taillon is doing his worst work in innings 1 and 2. So if it were up to me, I wouldn't have him pitch in innings 1 and 2.

The first inning is the only inning in which a manager knows for certain what three opposing hitters his club will face. Generally, a team's first six hitters are a team's best six hitters. Taillon is having his worst luck against opposing team's top six hitters, at the start of games.

The next time Taillon is scheduled to pitch, I would use an opener. That's right. When Taillon is up next in the rotation, have a relief pitcher start the game and record the game's first six outs. Then, turn the ball over to Taillon in inning 3. Perhaps a change in his usage will hit the reset button, and unlock a better version of Taillon.

For more from Jack Vita, follow him on Twitter @JackVitaShow, and subscribe to his podcast, the Jack Vita Show, available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, Facebook, Amazon, iHeartRadio, and wherever podcasts are found.

More From SI's Inside The Cubs

1. MLB Insider Predicts Cody Bellinger Will Receive Franchise-Altering Contract
2. Insider Gives Cubs "Zero Chance" at Re-Signing Slugger This Winter
3. Could Chicago Cubs Starter Opt-In to Play in 2024?
4. Hoerner is the Cubs Shortstop of the Future
5. Cubs Could Give Canario a Shot in September
6. Could the Cubs Land Trea Turner in the Offseason?
7. Chicago Cubs Have a New Top Prospect in Their Rankings
8. Is This Top Cubs Prospect Destined for the Mound at Wrigley?
9. Steele Offers Glimpse Into Future of Cubs Rotation
10. Do the Chicago Cubs Have the National League's Best Bullpen?