Chicago Cubs Prospect Spotlight: Matt Mervis was Perhaps the Biggest Breakout in the System

A relative unknown in the Chicago Cubs system coming into the season, first baseman Matt Mervis arguably had the best season on the farm.

Matt Mervis wasn't supposed to be much of anything. Mervis was an undrafted free agent following the 2020 MLB draft and the first baseman entered the season with Chicago Cubs affiliate High-A South Bend on nobody's radar, but that changed quickly. The Duke product tore through High-A, slashing a ridiculous .350/.389/.650 with seven home runs in 27 games and earning a promotion to Double-A.

Still, with a strikeout percentage of nearly 25% and a walk percentage below 5%, you'd be forgiven for still having some skepticism as to whether this was sustainable. However, not only did the 24-year-old keep up his incendiary run, slashing .300/.370/.596 with fourteen long balls in 53 games, he improved upon his other metrics as well.

Mervis nearly doubled his walk rate, increasing it to 8.7%, and cut his strikeouts down just to 20%. Most importantly, this did not come at the expense of any power, as his ISO only dropped .004 points from .300 to .296. The lefty also slightly improved his flyball and line drive percentage. These improvements likely led the Cubs to feel comfortable promoting him to Triple-A, his third different level of the season.

The first baseman simply couldn't be slowed. In 57 games with the Iowa Cubs, Mervis stayed incredibly steady with a slash line of .297/.383/.593 and another 15 home runs. The Washington D.C. native again improved his walk and strikeout rates, walking in 10.4% of his at-bats and striking out in just 14.6%, capping off a massive breakout campaign. 

Mervis finished with 36 home runs on the season, second to just Alex Canario in the system. 

The season didn't go unnoticed, earning him a spot in the Cubs' top 30 prospects according to MLB Pipeline as well as many other prospect sites. The 24-year-old also certainly caught the eyes of the Cubs front office, with the organization clearly showing great confidence in him with two promotions within the same season.

With the Cubs lacking a clear answer at first base, ending the season primarily with a platoon of Alfonso Rivas and PJ Higgins, neither of which have run away with the job, Mervis may have a real opportunity to seize the 2023 opening day first base job with a good spring training.

Chicago will be looking to spend this offseason, and it may be wise for them to allocate resources elsewhere and give Mervis a run in the majors. The lefty has little left to prove in the minor league ranks and has the potential to be a well above-average bat in the major leagues. 

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