5 Keys for Diamondbacks in Game 1 of Series against Dodgers

Arizona can beat the odds and pull off the upset if they do these five things

The Diamondbacks are the underdogs in their division series that starts against the Dodger tomorrow night in Los Angeles at 6:20 P.M. PST.   Over at Sports Illustrated Sports Book the money line has the D-backs +165 and the Dodgers -213.  The run line shows the D-backs +1.5 and Dodgers -1.5.  Those are some pretty steep odds to overcome

Jake Oliver took a deep dive on the pitching matchups for the series, and I'd suggest  giving that a good read through. Future first ballot Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw will be starting game one for the Dodgers and Merrill Kelly will get the ball for Arizona.  Here are five keys for Arizona to be able to overcome the odds and win the pivotal first game of the five game series. 

Key 1:  Merrill Kelly keeps Max Muncy under control and off the bases with his curveball and sinker

It's no secret that Kelly has struggled against the Dodgers in his career and especially at Dodger Stadium. In 16 career starts against L.A. Kelly is 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA.  There have been some good starts mixed in but he's just not been able to get a win. Few of those good starts have been in Dodger Stadium however where he is 0-5 with a 7.03 ERA in eight starts.

So how does he puncture Dodger invincibility against him?  The conventional wisdom will be to say he needs to stop two other future Hall of Famers, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. They're likely to get their knocks in against Kelly no matter what he does. The real key for Kelly will be  limiting the damage after those two have hit, and that comes by stopping Max Muncy.  No Dodger hitter has faced Kelly more and done more damage than Muncy. In 40 trips to the plate he's hit .412/.500/.618, 1.118 OPS, including four doubles, a homer and six walks.  

While Kelly's best off speed pitch against left hand batters is typically his changeup,  and conventional wisdom says to go with your strength,  Muncy does a lot of damage on changeups.  He is susceptible to curveballs and sinkers however, as he's often looking to pull the ball in the air.  If Kelly has a feel for his curve tomorrow night, he should consider that a weapon to contain Muncy to induce softer contact and swing--and-miss.

Key 2: Gabriel Moreno is on top of his game and ready to go

Gabriel Moreno was knocked out of Game 2 of the Wild Card Series after getting hit in the head on a back swing. He did not suffer a concussion thankfully and has been cleared to play and will start in Game 1.  The D-backs need him at full strength without any after effects. Moreno has already established himself as the best throwing catcher in the game, and his receiving skills grew by leaps and bounds as the season progressed. While the Dodgers don't run as much as the D-backs, their top four base stealers, Freeman, Josh Outman, Betts, and Chris Taylor are a combined 69 for 79, for an 87% success rate. Kelly and Moreno need to take that weapon away. 

It's always a bonus when your catcher hits, and Jake Oliver also covered that earlier today.  Since Moreno came off the injured list August 13th from a sore shoulder, he has a .878 OPS. The only player on the D-backs that has a higher OPS over that time is Corbin Carroll, at .883

Key 3:  The Bullpen continues their run of dominance

The turnaround for the Diamondbacks bullpen has been about as stunning as any other development with this team. Through August 31st they had a 4.69 bullpen ERA, ranking 25th in MLB.  But with the addition of closer Paul Sewald at the trade deadline the other relievers began to settle into their roles. At the same time the team added Ryan Thompson off waivers and promoted Andrew Saalfrank from the minor leagues. Together with the already established and dominant Kevin Ginkel they have created a bridge to Sewald, shortening up games or keeping the team in it when they fall behind early. Even Miguel Castro has gone on a run of scoreless innings after struggling for two months.  With two days rest for everyone heading into Saturday, all of that needs to continue in game one of the series as Torey Lovullo is likely going to have to piece together at least 9-12 outs a game from his relief corps.

Key 4:  Ketel Marte breaks out of his slump against Kershaw

While he hasn't gotten quite as much attention as some of the other players, Marte has been a key catalyst in the post season, and all year long for that matter. He had the game tying homer in game one against Milwaukee in the Wild Card series and then followed that up with a key two-run single to put the D-backs ahead to stay during a four-run 6th inning in game two. 

The switch hitting Marte had excellent numbers against Kershaw through 2021, going 9-for-28, with a double, a triple, and two homers.  He also went 2-4 with two runs and an RBI in the 2017 division series matchup. Over the last two years however he's just 2-for-15 with a double and four strikeouts against the now crafty veteran left-hander.  Marte needs to unlock the keys to his earlier success against Kershaw and continue to be a force in the number two spot in the order.

Key 5: Torey Lovullo continues to manage as if there is no tomorrow

A five game series is only slightly longer than a three game series. Moreover, game one winners of five game series are 105-43, (.709) and when the road team wins the first game they are 48-18, .(727)

Before game one of the Wild Card series Lovullo talked about stopping the run scoring by the opposition and stopping the momentum as his number priority. He pulled Brandon Pfaadt after just 2.2 innings and pulled long reliever Ryne Nelson after he loaded the bases on three singles and got just one out in the fifth.   Lovullo might be tempted to alter that approach with Kelly on the mound. Trust in your veterans has been a strength for Lovullo, but it cannot turn into a weakness in this pivotal Game 1. If Kelly doesn't have it, and starts giving up crooked numbers with the threat of more, Lovullo needs to go get him quick. The off day Sunday and then again Tuesday gives him that luxury to stick with the approach used in game one of the Wild Card series and get after it with his bullpen.