D-backs Outfield Remains Complicated After Varsho Trade

Balancing playing time in the outfield could be a difficult juggling act for Mike Hazen and Torey Lovullo in 2023.

The Diamondbacks began the off-season holding a surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders and were looking to add some right-handed hitters to balance out the lineup. Even with last week's blockbuster trade involving Daulton Varsho and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., in which the team swapped a left-handed hitting outfielder for a right-handed hitting one, the playing time situation in the outfield still remains complicated with the players currently on the 40-man roster. There are two core issues at play, each of which will give us a better idea on the team's plan to win games in 2023.

The first issue is trying to balance out starts between their left-handed bats. Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy, and Pavin Smith will split time between the three outfield spots and the designated hitter. McCarthy does not have significant left/right platoon splits for his career, with a .747 OPS against lefties and a .764 OPS against righties. The gap was even more narrow in 2022, in which the difference was only seven points apart (.771 vs. RHP, .764 vs. LHP). With that in mind, McCarthy has the easiest path to consistent playing time of the group.

Smith, Thomas, and Carroll on the other hand, saw a significant OPS drop against left-handed pitchers in 2022. Smith has a career .608 OPS in 222 PA against same-handed pitchers vs. a .749 OPS when holding the platoon advantage, suggesting that he's likely to be more of a platoon candidate and the other players on the roster limit him to a designated hitter with the rare appearance at first base and the outfield.

Thomas had a .471 OPS against lefties vs. a .665 OPS against righties, which may limit him to a fourth outfielder role behind McCarthy, Carroll, and Gurriel. When in the lineup, he is most valuable playing in center field where they can maximize his defense and hide his bat in the bottom of the order. He had a really tough finish to the season at the plate, culminating in getting optioned to Triple-A for the final two weeks of the season to work on his approach.

Carroll, the D-backs No. 1 prospect, will likely see the most at-bats from the group. He fits the bill of a classic leadoff hitter, with solid contact skills and the ability to put himself in scoring position with either an extra base hit or stealing second. He had a pretty significant left/right split with Double-A Amarillo, in which he had a .766 OPS against lefties and a 1.173 OPS against righties. In his first cup of coffee in the big leagues, he had a .590/.917 split although he only has 115 career plate appearances. If Carroll can hold his own enough against lefties to stay in the lineup, it will improve his chances of winning National League Rookie of the Year, which has the benefit of a first round pick for the D-backs.

The second issue is the D-backs top two right-handed hitting options for the outfield lack positional versatility. Both Gurriel and Kyle Lewis, who came in a separate trade with the Seattle Mariners, are positionally limited to just left field. Both will start against left-handed pitchers, one will be guaranteed to take up the DH spot in the lineup. That limits the flexibility that Torey Lovullo will have with his lineups, and likely forces the team to start at least two left-handed hitting outfielders in the lineup for all 162 games.

It will be interesting to see how they try to balance maximizing their outfield defense and how they use the DH. If they prioritize having a strong outfield defense, that could mean more starts at DH for Gurriel with McCarthy, Thomas, and Carroll getting the bulk of the playing time in the outfield while Smith sees fewer at-bats. In the event they want to add more offense to the lineup, you might see them take Thomas out of the lineup and shuffle in Gurriel and Smith between left field and DH. The same is also true against left-handed pitchers, but instead of Smith they may insert Lewis as the DH.

Injuries and performance will be the two main factors deciding who is available on the roster and who plays what role throughout the season. Other factors, including the number of infielders and a player's remaining options, could also factor into roster construction. The D-backs will need to figure out the right balance of playing time in order to maximize the amount of wins with this roster in the upcoming season.