Diamondbacks Pass Their First Test of the 2023 Season

Arizona comes out of a tough first four series with two series wins, two splits, and an overall record of 8-5.

The Diamondbacks were going to be tested early, thanks to a grueling early-season schedule. Facing the Dodgers, Padres, and Brewers for the first four series of the season, the D-backs saw it as a chance to measure themselves against the top teams in the National League. They were able to secure series splits on the road and won both series at home to finish with an 8-5 record. 

For Arizona to be a bonafide playoff contender this season, that will be the formula moving forward. If they can play close to .500 on the road and win most of their series at home, that could put them on track to finish with 90+ wins this season. That will be enough to win a Wild Card spot, if not a shot at winning a National League West division title. 

Looking deeper into their record, the fact they're 8-5 with much of the starting rotation and lineup off to a slow start is very impressive. The rotation has pitched to a 4.77 ERA on the season, but has only allowed six runs in their last four starts so there are encouraging signs. The D-backs rank 19th in wRC+ at 94, but seven of the 11 players on the team with 20 or more plate appearances are below 100. 

So with many of their key players not playing as well as we're accustomed to, how have the the D-backs been winning? The main reasons are strong defense, a lockdown backend of the bullpen, four players carrying the team offensively, and running wild on the bases.

The D-backs rank first in Statcast's defensive Outs Above Average metric at +7 They also rank fourth in defensive runs saved at +8 behind the Blue Jays, Mets, and Brewers. Manager Torey Lovullo said that playing good defense is a "top priority" for both him and the organization, with Lovullo being a pitching and defense guy at his core. The team hasn't been great defensively the past couple years, so they made it a huge area of emphasis in Spring Training.

Their best performing position is at shortstop, with the duo of Nick Ahmed and Geraldo Perdomo putting up +3 OAA and +3 DRS. Gabriel Moreno has provided value defensively behind the plate, throwing out four of five potential base-stealers and picked off another runner at first base this season. In fact Fangraphs rates him as the most valuable defensive player in MLB. First baseman Christian Walker already looks primed to win his second straight Gold Glove, with an impressive amount of defensive plays so far this season. The only position where the D-backs have negative defensive runs saved is in center field while statcasts' outs above average lists  center and second base as negative. 

The two positions where Arizona is getting the most value offensively through the first 13 games are shortstop and third base. At both positions, the D-backs are platooning a veteran right-handed bat with a younger left-handed bat. Ahmed is finally healthy again after missing most of 2022 with shoulder surgery and off-season signing Evan Longoria has been impressive when called upon, hitting .333 (9-for-27) with two home runs in his first seven games. 

With those two giving the D-backs a clear platoon advantage against lefties, that's allowed Geraldo Perdomo and Josh Rojas to flourish on the other side of the platoon. Perdomo has started the year hitting .409 with four extra base hits and leads the team with five walks. Rojas already has four three-hit games on the season, hitting .412/.447/.559 from the leadoff spot with a pair of stolen bases. Most notably his defense at third base has drastically improved. Once benched last September for unacceptably poor defense, Rojas worked hard to improve his hands, footwork, and syncing up his upper and lower halves to make better throws across the diamond. 

Once the Achilles heel of the 2022 D-backs, this year's bullpen has been solid to begin the season. The relief corps has a win probability added of 0.50 on the season, which ranks 10th, after finishing dead-last in MLB last season. Off-season signings Andrew Chafin and Miguel Castro have anchored the backend of the bullpen, with a combined 7/1 shutdown (+6% WPA) to meltdown (-6% WPA) ratio according to Fangraphs. Chafin has been a godsend, throwing 4.1 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and a 4/0 shutdown to meltdown ratio. The middle relief corps has been in a constant state of flux through roster moves and injuries, especially after Drey Jameson has been moved back to the rotation. 

Arizona will need more consistency from their starting rotation and get more out of their lineup to sustain this run. Many of these players either have the talent or track record to suggest that they'll figure things out as the season draws out. The next test will be navigating the rest of the month and avoiding a letdown against lesser opponents after an impressive first four series to the season. If the D-backs are sitting at 17-12 or better entering play on May 1st, we'll need to start reconsidering their chances of making the playoffs for the first time in six years.