D-backs Trade Deadline Targets Part 2: Relief Pitching
As reported on this past Wednesday, Diamondbacks General Manager Mike Hazen has made clear that the team is positioned and planning to be buyers by this year's MLB trade deadline of August 1st.
"Leading into the trade deadline season, which is right now, Those conversations are happening. We are certainly engaging on the buy side. We're going to need to address the pitching for sure. From a starting depth standpoint, getting through the last four months of the season, and/or shoring up our bullpen. We play good defense, but I don't know if our run scoring is going to stay at the clip it's at right now, which is going to put more pressure on our pitching staff...And then trying to find a way to add a big bat into the lineup given that one through nine we have a fairly consistent lineup with good hitters. We get on base, we can run, we can do some things. I think adding a little bit of slug would also be in our interests. I'm not exactly sure where we would fit that in."
In Part 1 of a series diving into potential trade targets, we focused on starting pitching. Be sure to click through on that link for additional context and check out the 10 starting pitchers highlighted.
Today, the focus is on relief pitching. It's important to remember that Mike Hazen and his baseball operations team are big believers in the concept of a using a closer platoon and matchups to determine who gets the 9th inning. While Torey Lovullo has preferred to have a designated closer in the past, he's has come around to the front office's way of thinking and utilized his bullpen with the desired intent, mixing and matching. So far this year 9th inning save chances have been primarily split between Andrew Chafin and Miguel Castro. No matter who they might trade for, don't expect the D-backs to vary from this approach much. Whoever they end up acquiring could end up joining that 9th inning mix, or they might just go for a depth option. One can interpret Hazen's "shore up" comment either way.
Relievers with team control beyond 2023
Jack Sommers
Stat Note: FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching, based on strikeouts, walks, and homers allowed, and does not account for balls in play. xFIP = Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. These are important peripheral metrics to consider because reliever ERA in small samples can be extremely distorted.
Scott Barlow Pros: He has plenty of closing experience and maintains a very high 12.9 K/9 ratio despite a dip in velocity this year. Cons: At or near the top of almost every list of reliever trade targets, he will cost plenty in prospect capital due to not being a free agent until 2025, and salary rises above $8M in arbitration in 2024
Hunter Harvey Pros: throws high 90's heat coupled with excellent splitter and has good ERA and peripherals, two years of affordable control before free agency in 2026. Cons: Has struggled in high leverage, 8-18 inherited runners have scored, (44%), and just 3-7 in save situations.
Kendall Graveman Pros: 96 MPH fastball, good slider, low ERA, 6-0 in save chances this year. Cons: $8M salary more than twice as high as any D-backs reliever. Peripherals much higher than ERA this year.
Giovanny Gallegos Pros: Great slider, has closing experience and 7-9 in save chances this year, relatively affordable contract through 2024. Cons: Velocity down 1 MPH and peripherals higher than ERA due to large drop in strikeout rate over the last year, from 11.1 to 8.5 K/9
Rental Reliever Trade Targets, 2024 Free Agents
Brad Hand Pros: He seems to be on these lists every year and has been a good reliever a long time. FIP much lower than ERA, indicating quality still there. Cons: Division rival Colorado may not be ideal trade partner to send a prospect in return, 2024 team option not cheap at $7M
Aroldis Chapman Pros: Back to 99 MPH fastball, 15/9 K rate produces great FIP. When throwing strikes un-hittable. Affordable contract. Cons: Walking 6 batter per 9, volatility, on and off the field.
Joe Kelly Pros: Throwing harder than ever, 99 MPH average fasbtall velo. 12/9 K rate and a career low 1.4 BB/9, great peripherals this year. Cons: Has never had success closing, just average in career with inherited runners scored rate. Expensive $9M contract this year and next year's team option.
Brent Suter Pros: Long time solid Brewer's lefty, having a lot of success in Colorado this year. Has not allowed a homer in 36 innings. Can give multiple innings pitched per outing. Very affordable contract. Cons: Division rival trade scenario again. Not a closing option, he's a medium leverage guy.
Chris Stratton Pros: Three pitch mix reliever, (FB, CB, SL), doesn't throw hard but gets his strikeouts. Having career year in ERA and peripherals due to 6.1 K/BB Ratio. Just 2-14 inherited runners have scored this year. Cons: Being used mostly in low leverage situations, fastball velo just 93 MPH. K/BB rate might not be sustainable in second half.
Jordan Hicks Pros: Averaging 101 MPH with his fastball and striking out career high 14.2/9, just 2-11 inherited runners scored. Cons: Walking over 6.4/9, too volatile to close.
Buck Farmer Pros: Low cost, multi inning option. Low walk rate. Career best ERA Cons: not a closing option, declining velocity and K rate and high xFIP hints at sustainability issues going forward.
Carl Edwards Jr. Pros: Solid, if unspectacular reliever for a long time. Affordable. Cons: Does not move any needles.
In addition to the above 12 pitchers, we will round out the list with a baker's dozen by adding Liam Hendriks. The three time all star closer has just come back from cancer treatments and is rebuilding strength. His velocity is off by 2MPH in the four games he's pitched so far. From 2019-2022 he posted a 2.26 ERA with 114 saves and would satisfy any organizattions desire to have a proven closer if he can regain that form. But his $15M salary is prohibitive, and his 2024 option for that same amount becomes guaranteed if traded.
