D-backs Trade Deadline Targets Part 1: Starting Pitching
This is the first in a three part series taking a look at potential trade targets for the Diamondbacks for the upcoming August 1st trade deadline.
At the start of Spring Training General Manager Mike Hazen was asked what would constitute success this year. He answered "being in the position to be aggressive at the deadline to buy, and play meaningful baseball games in September."
With a 36-25 record the D-backs currently sit alone at the top of the NL West, successfully putting themselves in a position to be buyers at the deadline. On a recent Podcast with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman the GM confirmed that's exactly what they'e thinking. Hazen was specific, stating they are looking to add starting pitching depth, bullpen help, and a power bat to the lineup.
"Leading into the trade deadline season, which is right now, Those conversations are happening. We are certainly engaging on the buy side. We're going to need to address the pitching for sure. From a starting depth standpoint, getting through the last four months of the season, and/or shoring up our bullpen. We play good defense, but I don't know if our run scoring is going to stay at the clip it's at right now, which is going to put more pressure on our pitching staff...And then trying to find a way to add a big bat into the lineup given that one through nine we have a fairly consistent lineup with good hitters. We get on base, we can run, we can do some things. I think adding a little bit of slug would also be in our interests. I'm not exactly sure where we would fit that in."
In today's installment we take a look at some starting pitching targets. In part two we'll look a bullpen targets and part three will hone in on power bats that might be available. We make no attempt today to assess what the cost will be to get any of these players. Suffice to say there will be significant subtractions from the Top 30 Prospects List and perhaps even the major league roster.
Below are three tables breaking out 10 potential starting pitcher targets. Note that the salary figures are for full year 2023. Simply cut in half for a rough estimate on the financial part of the picture for the rest of this season. None of the pitchers listed have team control beyond 2024. If Hazen is looking for control beyond 2024, that's a different kind of trade then is being discussed here.
Big Names
Jack Sommers
Former Cy Young winners Shane Bieber and Corbin Burnes have been mentioned nationally in trade rumors as pitcher's who might be available. However the Brewers are currently in first place in the upside down NL Central, just half a game clear of the second place Pirates, despite serious injuries to starters Brandon Woodruff, Wade Miley, and Eric Lauer. Still under control through the end of 2024, the only reason Burnes is on this list is due to his well documented discord with the team over his arbitration case. He's not been as effective this year. His trademark cutter is down one MPH with a slightly degraded movement profile. The pitch has been getting hit more than usual. He's also seen a marked increase in his walk rate and decrease in strikeout rate.
The Guardians are below .500, but just 3.5 games back of the Twins. As such, it's hard to imagine them moving Bieber at this point. He's also under control through end of 2024. He does have a couple of major red flags however as his velocity is down 3MPH from his Cy Young season of 2020, and his strikeout rate has cratered, cut to half of what it was just two years ago.
2024 Free Agents that are pitching well year to date
Jack Sommers
The Cubs are eight games below .500 at 26-34, 6.5 games back of the Brewers. Their decision on whether to be sellers may have already been made. They have two pitchers that should garner an excellent return in Marcus Stroman and Drew Smyly. Stroman would be a pure rental, as barring injury he is likely to decline his player option and try to get a longer deal. Smyly's option for 2024 is a team friendly $8.5M after which he has a player option for 2025. Some team may be overly aggressive to get one of them early, enticing the Cubs to sell early. Or if the aggressive offers aren't there, they may just wait it out till the end of July.
Stroman appears to have been somewhat hit lucky, with just 5.9 H/9. Smyly's FIP is only .31 higher than Stroman's and dollar wise is more affordable. He is left handed, which may be a particular enticement to the D-backs, as they only lefty they have in the rotation is the inconsistent Tommy Henry.
Lucas Giolito has not been contending for the Cy Young Award for the last couple of years, but he's still an effective starter most of the time. His home ballpark is one of the most homer friendly in the league, resulting in a 1.3 HR/9 rate. Chase Field is the opposite of that, as it suppresses homers relative to the league these days. So Giolito's numbers could potentially improve a lot with Arizona. The White Sox are well under .500, but only 4.5 games back in the AL Central, so they may still wait a while.
The Cardinals shockingly sit at the bottom of the NL Central, 8.5 games back. Jordan Montgomery has been decent, but very unlucky with his base hit rate of 10.1. The Cardinals defense ranks 27th in MLB, while the D-backs rank 6th. So he is another good change of scenery candidate.
Michael Lorenzen is a former reliever/pinch hitter who has been having some surprising success in the Tigers rotation with a 3.21 ERA. His 3.94 FIP is higher than his ERA however and his strikeout rate is low. He also hasn't topped 100 innings in a season since his rookie season in 2015. But he could provide depth at a lower cost than many pitchers on this list.
Under performing pitchers who are free agents in 2024
Jack Sommers
The Cardinals Jack Flaherty has struggled with health and consistency since his 2019 breakout season. This year he has an elevated walk rate of 5.0/9. However over his last two starts he's only walked one in each, giving up 2 walks and 2 runs in his last 12.1 innings. If that trend continues his trade value will increase quickly.
Rich Hill is a 43 year old innings eater who has only failed to complete the fifth inning in two of his 12 starts, and gotten six innings or deeper in half of them. His run prevention is mediocre at this point. While he's been good in the playoffs in the past, he's not pitched in the postseason since 2019. Of course the Pirates are right on the Brewers heels in the NL Central, and would need to slump badly and fall out of the race before becoming sellers.
Lance Lynn is having a season from hell heading into free agency. (The White Sox will almost surely decline his $18M option). There is hope there however. His strikeout rate is still very good. His walk rate is up , but that may be a function of his extremely high hit and homer rates causing him to nibble. With a better defense behind him and pitching in a less homer friendly home park, he could be a good change of scenery candidate. But the D-backs would surely require the White Sox to pay a significant portion of his salary.
