D-Backs Trade Deadline Targets Part 3: Power Bats
This is the third part in a series looking at potential Diamondbacks trade deadline targets. In Part 1 we looked at starting pitching, and in Part 2 we identified some relief pitching targets.
Early last week Mike Hazen was heard on Joel Sherman's podcast saying the following
"Leading into the trade deadline season, which is right now, Those conversations are happening. We are certainly engaging on the buy side. We're going to need to address the pitching for sure. From a starting depth standpoint, getting through the last four months of the season, and/or shoring up our bullpen. We play good defense, but I don't know if our run scoring is going to stay at the clip it's at right now, which is going to put more pressure on our pitching staff...And then trying to find a way to add a big bat into the lineup given that one through nine we have a fairly consistent lineup with good hitters. We get on base, we can run, we can do some things. I think adding a little bit of slug would also be in our interests. I'm not exactly sure where we would fit that in."
As an analyst I confess to having some difficulty with this section of the series. This is due in part to the fact that there are not that many clear cut power bat upgrades in a position of need that would likely be available. Another concern is breaking up the style of play the D-backs employ, utilizing their speed and aggressiveness to force other teams into mistakes. And finally when I look closely at context and park factors, I'm not quite sure they really lack much power to begin with. To understand why I think that, we need to dive deeper.
The Diamondbacks currently have a .263/.329/.437, .766 OPS slash line. That comes out to a 110 OPS+, or roughly 10% above league average OPS once ballpark factors are taken into account. (See NL Table here) That OPS+ is even with the Dodgers, and just 3 points behind the Braves at 113. It's true that the Braves and Dodgers have out homered the D-backs. Arizona has 75 homers on the year so far ranking 6th in the NL. Atlanta has 110, and L.A. has 113 homers.
It's important to note however that ever since the introduction of the Chase Field humidor in 2018, it's not only no longer a good home run ball park, but it actually suppresses homers about 15% relative to the rest of the league. We can see this in the Statcast Park Factors at Baseball Savant. The single year home run factor is 82 this year and has not been over 100 since 2017. 100= average, over 100 is roughly the percent it favors hitters and under 100 is the percent it favors pitchers. For further perspective, Truist Park in Atlanta and Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles actually inflate homers about 15% compared to the league average with HR park factors of 115 and 116 respectively. League Table Here
We are less than halfway through the season and they only play half their games at home. So it's difficult to estimate exactly what the impacts might be here on raw homer totals and overall slugging percentage. But suffice to say that the homer gap is not as big an issue as it appears on the surface.
Despite this analysis we press ahead however. We should produce our lists because Mike Hazen has said this is what he plans to do. I have broken out the list two ways, the first is the actual year to date numbers for the players we see on teams likely to be sellers who are free agents next year. Some of these players have been hurt and played very little. Some have underperformed, and a couple are playing well. It's not advisable to use year to date numbers after 65 games to project the rest of season. So we have added a second table, which is the projected rest of season triple slash (B.A./OBP/SLG) and OPS. These come from Fangraphs Depth Chart Projections which are a combination of Steamer and ZIPS projections.
Jack Sommers
Adam Duvall just came back from an injury. He was off to a hot start before going on the IL. He's 1-for-6 since coming back. The Boston Red Sox are in last place in the AL East and on the precipice of becoming a deadline seller. Duvall is a big power/slug guy who typically hits for low batting average.
Cody Bellinger is a former Dodger MVP who started off hot for the Cubs but had already cooled before going on the IL. Considered a plus defender in the outfield, he could provide left hand power.
Randall Grichuk and C.J. Cron could both be on the block. Grichuk averaged 22 homers a year but just a .294 OBP between 2015-2022. Ironically this year he only has one homer playing for Colorado but has a high B.A. and OBP. Cron has been out with a back injury, and that may impact his power going forward. The D-backs may hesitate to trade a prospect to a division rival.
Patrick Wisdom and Teoscar Hernandez both have power, but neither hit for average either, and they strike out a lot. Switch hitters Jeimer Candelario and Eduardo Escobar are on the list, as are New York Mets Mark Canha and Tommy Pham. None would be considered a "big bat" but all have at least moderate pop.
Here is the same list of players but ranked by projected OPS for the rest of the season
Jack Sommers
Cron's projected OPS is inflated by Coors Field somewhat. Duvall looks like the most likely candidate on the list. Considering Hazen's relationships with Boston and Duvall's track record of providing serious pop for the World Series Champion Braves in 2021, he seems like a very strong candidate for Hazen. Bellinger's projection is not nearly as good, but it's hard to discount him as a possibility. Grichuk and Hernandez have proven power, and proven flaws in their games. Caveat Emptor.
Final Word: I did not include Paul Goldschmidt, who is a free agent after 2024 and making $26 million a year. Many on social media have been fantasizing about a reunion. There are many reasons this is extremely unlikely, even if the Cardinals sell, so I simply chose not to include him. There are many looking at players such as Jorge Soler of the Marlins, but as of today, eight games above .500 and three games up in the wild card, Miami do not look like sellers. If they fall out of the race in a month, we'll revisit these lists.
