D-backs Could Be Priced Out of the Starting Pitching Market
The Diamondbacks, along with 25 other major league teams, are in the market for starting pitching. One of those teams, the St. Louis Cardinals have already struck deals with three starters, including one of the biggest names available, Sonny Gray. St. Louis also signed Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson to one-year deals respectively, but it is Gray's reported three-year, $75 million contract that holds the most significance.
A three-year deal for Gray's age 34-36 seasons is right in line with industry expectations for length, but the $25 million average annual salary is a little higher than the $21-22 million many had projected. One important consideration with signing Gray is the Cardinals will forfeit their second highest draft pick, due to Gray rejecting a qualifying offer. The Diamondbacks may never have been interested in Gray for that reason alone, as they would have to forfeit their third highest selection, but the average annual dollar amount Gray received is a market indicator that has significant implications for Arizona.
Mike Hazen has previously indicated on multiple occasions that despite getting burned by the five-year, $85 million Madison Bumgarner contract, he will not shy away from a long term, high dollar contract for a starting pitcher. When asked if past experience would make him hesitant he said "No, not at all, if it did I'll go find another job". Still, it seems like $25 million average annual for the upper tier of starting pitchers is likely to be too steep for the D-backs.
It's notable that Aaron Nola, also 30 last season, received a seven year deal with roughly the same average annual. It stands to reason that Blake Snell, another pitcher heading into this age 31 season, will get at least as high an average annual as Nola, and perhaps more. He's coming off a Cy Young campaign and league leading 2.28 ERA. It's not hard to imagine Snell signing for seven years, $180 million, or even eight years, $205 million. Is that end of the pool too deep for the Diamondbacks? Probably.
What about Japanese sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Predictions for his contract are all over the place, but separate from the posting figure that must be paid his Japanese League club, none of those predictions are under $200 million. By the time you factor in the posting figures he is going to be at least a $225 million investment. With every big market club interested in him, a bidding war could break out.
Among the next tier of starting pitchers you have left-handers Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, and right-hander Marcus Stroman. Montgomery is 31 next season and has been projected to earn a five year deal, with anywhere from $105 to $125 million, or a range of $21-25 million average annual. Based on the Gray contract, it seems likely that Montgomery gets closer to the $25 million end, as he does not come attached to a qualifying offer. Rodriguez, also 31, is projected to receive a four year deal between $76-82 million, or $19-$21 million average annual. Stroman has had some injury issues and is a little older at 33, and is projected for just three years, but a similar average annual in the $22 million range.
None of these options seem ideal for the D-backs. There is a strong chance the team could end up paying over $20 million in two or three years for a pitcher that is either oft injured, in decline or both. The better path for the D-backs to pursue a top starting pitcher would seem to be via the trade route. Hurlers with one year left of control before hitting free agency such as Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, and Shane Bieber of the Guardians are all rumored to be available. Add Dylan Cease of the White Sox, who is a 2026 free agent, carrying two years of control, and there are some pretty good trade targets.
The question is whether the Diamondbacks are willing to trade from their top tier of prospects for a pitcher with only one or two years of control. The D-backs recently acquired Eugenio Suarez for a very modest prospect return from the Mariners. In his press conference Hazen sent some mixed messages on how that might affect things going forward. "We didn't trade from the top of our farm system to make this trade....this is obviously one year plus an option for a position player. In other deals it will look different."
What will look different? Will they trade from the top of their farm system to get pitching? Possibly. But Hazen also talks about years of control and the top starters available for trade have only one or two years of control at most. It seems unlikely any team would trade a pitcher with three years or more of control that can slot in as a clear, dependable upgrade over who the D-backs currently have, at least without moving Jordan Lawlar, the teams top rated prospect.
The D-backs could choose the volume route. For example sign two pitchers, such as left hander Wade Miley, projected to get one year, $8 million and righty swing man Seth Lugo, projected for two years, $26 million. This type of roster construction might actually be a better fit. If they both work out, great. If only one of them works, they haven’t lost much and still have a fourth starter for at least 25 starts and are not committed long term. They can still work in their younger pitchers a little at a time instead of having to force it and it gives them some depth, as opposed to putting all their eggs in one basket. And of course they'd still have all of their top prospects and young pitchers to evaluate for one more season.
They still have other holes to fill, and need at least one more right-handed bat. With a current payroll commit of approximately $109 million, adding Miley and Lugo would bring them to about $130 million. If Ken Kendrick is true to his word and is increasing payroll significantly, that might allow Hazen to then use another $10-$12 million to bring in another bat. Perhaps they can even entice Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to return for that amount. Such a move would both fill a need and bring back a fan favorite.
