Diamondbacks Reportedly Interested in Xander Bogaerts

How likely is this to be true and if so, does it make sense for the Dbacks?

It's been recently reported that the Diamondbacks are one of the teams interested in free agent shortstop Xander Bogaerts. How likely is this to be true ?

The first thing you need to know is that a Mike Hazen run baseball operations department follows the rules. Neither he or any of his key team members would ever confirm or deny such a rumor. So if anyone tells you with absolute certainty they have sources confirming or denying the rumor, they don't. 

The second thing you need to know is that the "leak" of this information likely came from his agent Scott Boras. There is no party that stands to gain more from ginning up the market than Boras and his client. 

On the other hand due to the Boston connections it is entirely plausible that the Diamondbacks would check in with Bogaerts' agent to take the room temperature. After all when Bogaerts was signed as an amateur free agent out of Aruba in 2009, current assistant general manager Amiel Sawdaye was the assistant director of amateur scouting and  Mike Hazen was the director of player development. As such they were certainly involved in, and intimately connected to this player's rise through the Red Sox system to become one of the best players in the league during their tenure in Boston. So what if it's true?

Does Bogaerts want to stay at shortstop?

According to his agent, Bogaerts plans to remain a shortstop. That means any team signing him is bringing him in to play that position, not to immediately be moved elsewhere. It's likely Bogaerts will be moved from the position at some point in his career. (More on his defense later). But any team approaching him with an immediate plan to move him off shortstop is likely to be rebuffed

What would this mean for the other Diamondbacks shortstops?

Bogaerts would be a huge upgrade at the position over their current depth chart of Nick Ahmed and Geraldo Perdomo. Ahmed has been a terrific defender throughout his career, but as we discussed in his recent season review, had already slipped somewhat due to injuries. He's always been a well below average hitter. How he responds to right shoulder surgery and missing virtually all 2022 remains to be seen. With Ahmed in the last year of his contract, slated to make $10.4 million, he would likely have to be traded if there are any takers, or be relegated to bench role. The team would have to absorb roughly half of that contract to move him. 

Geraldo Perdomo had a very poor year at the plate and a mediocre one with the glove in 2022. The team likes his makeup and he's still very young and could improve. But he's likely destined to be a utility player and would not be a factor in this decision. 

The elephant in the room however is what this would say about the team's faith in Jordan Lawlar to stick at shortstop. On track for a late 2023 season call up, if the D-backs were to sign Bogaerts and honored any commitment to keep him at shortstop, then Lawlar would have to move. But with second base occupied by Ketel Marte, would the team then move Lawlar to third base in that scenario?  

What about the money?

Bogaerts supposedly turned down a four year, $90 million offer to stay in Boston prior to last season. It will likely take at least a six or seven year commitment with an average annual no lower than $27 million and perhaps as high as $34 million (the same as Francisco Lindor) to sign him. That results in a wide range of $160-240 million guaranteed money.  

We recently estimated the Diamondbacks would increase their $100 million payroll to least $110 million, and perhaps as high as $120 million. Since then one team official indicated to me that payroll could actually be a little north of that high end figure. That would still leave the team well short of the necessary funds to add a contract of this magnitude and still be able to address any of the team's other needs. 

But if they were to make such a signing, it would most likely result in the team looking to trade Ketel Marte, who is guaranteed $76 million over the next five years. They'd also likely trade Ahmed, even if only saving $5 of the $10 million he's owed. 

Is Bogaerts a good investment?

Bogaerts will be entering his age 30 season in 2023, and would be 35 or 36 when completing a six or seven year deal. 

After providing  league average offense, (101 wRC+ through his first 4+ seasons), Bogaerts has emerged as one of the better hitters in the league. Since 2018 he's averaged .301/.373/.508, .881 OPS, which results in a 134 wRC+, or about 34% better than league average. He's also averaged 21 homers and 80 RBI during that span. One projection system has him hitting just .271 in 2023 with a 122 wRC+. While it seems a little early to show that much decline in his bat, such a decline will probably come sometime before his middle 30's. 

His defense has rated well below average for the entirety of his career however. Bogaerts defensive runs saved found at Baseball Reference rates him -57 runs since 2013, or -7 runs per 162 games played. Somewhat ironically, 2022 was the first time in his career he rated positively in that metric, posting +4.  Baseball Savant also rated him +4 runs in 2022. This also came after years of negative rankings, as he came into the season -39 just for 2016-2022. 

It's almost certainly no coincidence that as the Red Sox increased the number of pitches they were in the shift on over the years, Bogaerts defensive numbers improved. When there is no more shifting allowed next year, it's likely Bogaerts numbers will get worse again. 

Year	% Pitches Shifted	Defensive Runs Save
2015	18.5%	-3
2016	17.4%	-10
2017	16.4%	-11
2018	20.5%	-8
2019	20.6%	-9
2020	30%	-4
2021	38.3%	-5
2022	42.8%	+4

One other factor about Bogaerts defense to consider is that his arm strength rates slightly below average among shortstops, so he might not be an ideal candidate to move to third base in the future 

Summary:

Xander Bogaerts is undoubtably an impact player. He's an excellent hitter and has been durable. While he's a below average defender, he's managed to stay at shortstop throughout his career, adding value to the offense he brings.  But when breaking down the Diamondbacks roster construction and payroll parameters, he seems like a poor fit. 

If the team really has looked into signing him they would almost certainly have to move Ketel Marte and make other efforts to clear payroll space as well. They would also have to shift expectations with regards to one of their most highly rated prospects in Jordan Lawlar. And they would have to feel comfortable not only in bringing their payroll up well over $120 million, but also in giving nearly 25% of it to one player who is entering his age 30 season.