What the D-backs Need to Contend in 2023

What must go right for the Diamondbacks to be able to contend for a potential Wild Card spot in the 2023 season?

The Diamondbacks enter the 2023 season hoping to continue their path towards competing for a playoff spot. After 110 losses in the 2021 season, the D-backs had a 22-game improvement in 2022 to a 74-88 record. The main catalyst for the improvement came after the All-Star break, in which their winning percentage improved from .435 to .486. As a result, the team elected to exercise manager Torey Lovullo's club option for the 2023 season. 

Extrapolating their second half record to a full season, that is a 79-win pace. That total would be eight wins shorter than the total from the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies, who claimed the final Wild Card spot. In order to be able to compete, the D-backs will need to close that gap.

These are the five things that need to happen for the D-backs to actually compete for a Wild Card spot.

1. Farm System Must Produce Immediate Impact

Top 30 Prospects

The main source of optimism for 2023 is the D-backs is their farm system, filled with MLB-ready starting pitchers and position players. The most notable names of players that will contribute in 2023 include Corbin Carroll, Drey Jameson, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson. Arizona will need all four players to make a big impact next year.

Carroll is listed in the top five on both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline's Top 100 lists. With his very high prospect ranking, there comes high expectations that Carroll will develop into a key player for the D-backs over the next six seasons. On the pitching side, Arizona is going to have to get a big year out of either Drey Jameson or Brandon Pfaadt to stabilize a third rotation spot behind established veterans Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. 

2. Bullpen Must Be Able to Close Out Late Leads

The bullpen has been an Achilles heel for the D-backs since their last postseason run in 2017. Should Mark Melancon fail to reclaim the closer role this upcoming spring, Arizona will be on their sixth different closer in six seasons. The D-backs bullpen in 2022 was bad across the board, ranking dead last in win probability added (-7.30), last in strikeout rate (19.7%), and 25th in ERA (4.58). The unit's collective inability to get big outs late in games really stunted the team's growth, despite some big improvements in the lineup and starting rotation in the second half of the season.

In the off-season, the team signed veteran relievers Miguel Castro and Scott McGough, claimed Cole Sulser off waivers, and traded for Carlos Vargas. McGough has closing experience in Japan, which may or may not translate well into the backend of a big league bullpen, whereas Castro comes with promising stuff but a very mediocre track record of performance for his career. The team also has some interesting arms that could compete for a role between prospect Justin Martinez and Vargas. Both come with high 90s velocity and a swing-and-miss secondary pitch. Between their four main additions, Arizona's average fastball velocity should see an uptick in 2023.

A stronger bullpen will not only translate to more wins on paper, but also ease the burden on both the starting rotation and the hitters in the lineup. Arizona's poor record in one-run games (17-29) was likely a result of not only poor relief work, but also the hitters pressing and ill-timed defensive miscues. A bullpen that is much closer to league average should be enough, as the starting rotation and the position players are good enough to carry most of the load for the team. 

3. D-backs Must Hit Left-Handed Starters

Arizona had one of the worst lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching, as their right-handed hitters collectively hit .229/.299/.388 when holding the platoon advantage. Fangraphs rated their overall offense to be 9% lower than league average with a wRC+ of 91, which ranked 26th in MLB. Outside of Christian Walker and Ketel Marte, the D-backs did not get much production out of their lineup against lefties. 

In the off-season, the D-backs aggressively hunted for right-handed bats in both the free agent and trade market. They were able to reportedly sign Evan Longoria to a one-year deal while also trading for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Diego Castillo. A return to form for both Carson Kelly and Nick Ahmed, who boast a career 114 and 104 wRC+ against southpaws, will also lengthen the lineup against left-handed pitching. 

This is the D-backs projected lineup against a left-handed starting pitcher:

It's critical for the D-backs to be able to construct a lineup that can hit left-handed starting pitching, as they'll face them around 50 times in 2023. While not the majority of their games, 50 is enough games to impact a team's season. The hitters will need to put up more offense against left-handed starters in order to take the pressure off their pitchers.

4. Zac Gallen Continues to Be Elite

The D-backs' best player will need to be one of the best pitchers in baseball come 2023. Gallen was a solid starter for the first half of the season, but broke out in the second half of the 2022 season. In 14 starts, he went 8-2 with a 1.49 ERA in 90.1 innings, leading all major league pitchers in Fangraphs WAR (3.3). 

Whether or not Gallen can continue this trend will be interesting. xFIP (3.31) and xERA (3.17) suggested he benefitted from good batted ball luck to achieve a 2.54 ERA on the season. At the same time, there was an improvement in both peripherals and the quality of contact allowed to opposing hitters from the first and second half of the season. His strikeout rate increased to 31.3% while his walk rate dropped to 5.8% in the second half of the season. Only five MLB starters had a better K-BB% than Gallen's 25.5%: Carlos Rodón, Blake Snell, Kevin Gausman, Aaron Nola, and Gerrit Cole. Additionally, his barrel rate dropped from 10.1% before the All-Star break to just 4.9% after. Adding those two aspects together, there was marked improvement in Gallen's run prevention skill in the second half of the season.

Gallen is now the ace of the pitching staff, and will be tasked with having to carry the team every fifth day. That role includes playing the role of stopper when the team is on a losing streak or going head-to-head against the opposing team's best starters in a series. In his 31 starts, the D-backs had a record of 19-12, but the team will need to be able to hold onto more leads once Gallen has done his job on the mound.

5. Ketel Marte Is More Healthy And Consistent 

Marte has struggled with hamstring injuries the past two years, with 2022 culminating in arguably his worst season in a D-backs uniform. After signing a five-year, $76 million extension, he got off to a slow start in April, but posted three consecutive months of an OPS better than .800. Once the calendar turned to August, the bat completely disappeared. Combining the inconsistent bat and massive drop-off defensive value, especially with a drop in range and ability to convert the balls hit to him, Marte was a below-average player for the first time since 2016, accumulating just 1.5 bWAR/1.4 fWAR in 137 games.

Hamstring issues likely factored into it somewhat, as Marte tried to play through two separate injuries in the second half. In the final two months, he posted an OPS of .497 of .616 respectively. That slump was very unfortunate, as it also culminated in Marte getting dropped down in the order before getting placed on the injured list on September 30th. If Arizona can get a healthier Ketel Marte in 2023, he gives them a second impact bat next to Christian Walker in the middle of the order. 

In order for the D-backs to be able to compete with teams such as San Diego, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Atlanta, and other teams in the Wild Card race, they will need impact talent on their roster. It's critical for them to close up their team weaknesses and their best players to shoulder much of the burden in order to get the team where they need to be come the end of the season.