Will it Take 90 Wins to Win NL Wild Card?

The bar seems to have been raised for post season entry

If the season were to end today however, the Diamondbacks would be the 3rd NL Wild Card with a .553 win percentage. Over 162 games that translates to 89.6 wins.  The Phillies are  just a half game behind with a .548 W%, which comes out to 88.8 wins per 162 games. Rounding both up, it would take 90 wins then to capture the last NL Wild Card.  Here is what the NL Standings look like as of today

Jack Sommers

Last year the Philadelphia Phillies captured the 6th Wild Card spot with a win total of 87. That was the first year there were three wild card teams. The year prior, with two wild card spots available, the Atlanta Braves made the post season with 88 wins.  Both math and conventional wisdom would suggest that the more playoff spots available, the lower the win total needed to get in, but as of today that is not the case. 

Both Arizona and Philadelphia are off today, so the D-backs are guaranteed to remain in a playoff position for at least one more day. They were slumping before the break and prior to the resumption of play on Friday we asked the question. Can the Diamondbacks Stave off Regression?  Early returns on that question from the first series post All Star break are not positive, as they were just swept by the Toronto Blue Jays in three straight games. They begin a three game series against the best team in MLB, the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday. 

As a result of these developments the Diamondbacks are currently projected  to go 33-35 the rest of the way, ending up with an 85-77 record. That drops their composite playoff odds from a high of 70% on July 5th to 48% as of this morning.  Considering the 90 win threshold that currently exists, the D-backs would need to go 38-30 the rest of the way to reach that.

Jack Sommers

There are several reasons for the team's current slump. First and foremost is the offense.  Through June 27th team averaged 5.2 runs per game on .265/.331/.441, .772 OPS batting.  In 14 games since June 28th they've averaged 2.9 runs per game with a .210/.297/.330, .626 OPS slash line.  Almost every hitter on the team has been slumping, top, middle and bottom. But the stars, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr, will need to catch fire again to lead the way

At the same time the bullpen has been struggling of late, especially late in close games and in high leverage situations. When they do have a chance to pull out a close game, the bullpen has been giving up crooked numbers, either coughing up a lead or letting a close game slip away.  Scott McGough, Miguel Castro, and Andrew Chafin have all taken turns struggling in high leverage. The D-backs could use a lock down closer in the ninth inning more than anything, but getting such a player is elusive. 

The rotation, already in need of bolstering,  is really missing Merrill Kelly, who has been out with blood clot in his calf for several weeks. There have been too many short outings, putting additional pressure on the already stressed bullpen. 

And finally, the finer points of the game that have typically given the team an edge, specifically base running and defense, have also regressed. In the Toronto series alone they had five outs on base.  Defensive miscues have been mounting and coming at bad times. 

Whether or not Mike Hazen remains a buyer at the deadline remains to be seen. If the current trends continue, he may not be. Torey Lovullo and his coaching staff will need to find a way to lead the team out of it, and quickly or being aggressive buyers at the trade deadline may not make sense.