Pitching Matchups for Diamondbacks and Brewers

The final three games of 2022 are in Milwaukee with a playoff spot on the line for the Brewers and D-backs looking to play spoiler

© Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Diamondbacks (73-86) travel to Milwaukee to face the Brewers (84-75) for the final three games of the 2022 season. The Brewers are two games behind the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Phillies, who play three in Houston to finish up, hold the tie breaker, so the Brewers elimination number is one. That means any Diamondbacks  win (Or Phillies win) over the next three days knocks out the Brewers. 

The two teams faced off for a four game series at Chase Field from September first through September fourth, with the D-backs taking three of the four games. Arizona won the next day against San Diego to get to a second half high water mark of 65-69, creating hopes for a .500 season. But since then Arizona has gone just 8-17 in the face of a withering schedule and a faltering bullpen. 

The Brewers were probably expecting a better outcome that series, and it may have played no small part in putting Milwaukee in the hole they are in now. They are just 15-15 for the month of September and simply have not done enough to secure a spot in the post season. The Diamondbacks can cap off their spoiler role with a win early in the series. 

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Pitcher	Games	Innings	Record	ERA	FIP	SO/W	HR/9
Tommy Henry	8	40.2	3-4	5.98	6.16	1.55	2.0
Brandon Woodruff	26	147.1	13-4	3.05	3.07	4.46	1.0

Rookie left-hander Tommy Henry started off his career well enough through his first five starts. Going five innings or more each time he posted a 3.25 ERA. But there were signs of trouble as he wasn't striking out many batters and the walks started to creep up, leading to a 4.67 FIP. Then he was hit very hard in consecutive outings, giving up 12 runs in 8.1 innings, while walking five and striking out just six. In the second of those two game he gave up three homers. Demoted back to Reno after his start on September 7th, he was recalled to start September 27th and that went poorly as well, giving up five runs in 4.2 innings, including three homers and 3 more walks.  That leaves him where his numbers are today. The team will likely be evaluating him in this final start to determine if he is a rotation or bullpen candidate for 2023. 

Brandon Woodruff followed up his Cy Young contending 2021 with another excellent season in 2022.  He missed the month of June with an ankle injury, but he's been especially tough over his last five starts, going 4-1 with a 1.36 ERA. His Season ERA is supported by good peripherals, notably 183 strikeouts to just 41 walks. He can be touched up with the long ball from time to time however. The D-backs beat him September 1st in one of his worst game of the year, scoring five runs on eight hits and a homer in 5.2 innings.

To say Zac Gallen has been dominant since the all star break would be an understatement. In 13 starts since the break he's 8-1 with a 1.27 ERA. That's including a 44.1 inning scoreless streak, the sixth longest in MLB history. His seven scoreless innings against Milwaukee September fourth were part or that streak. He leads the NL in WHIP and OPS against among qualified starters. While Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins is the likely NL Cy Young winner, Gallen has made a strong case for number two and could cement that status with a strong final start. 

Eric Lauer has set career highs in innings and wins this season. As a fly ball lefty one would think Christian Walker's pursuit of 40 homers and 100 RBI might get a boost, but he's just 2-13 with four walks and no extra base hits against Lauer. Sadly the most successful D-back against Lauer, Ketel Marte, is on the 10 day IL.

Pitcher	Games	Innings	Record	ERA	FIP	SO/W	HR/9
Merrill Kelly	32	194.1	13-8	3.43	3.71	2.88	1.0
Corbin Burnes	32	199	12-8	2.98	3.19	4.67	1.0

Merrill Kelly's quest for 200 innings hit more than a speed bump last time out, as he was crushed for eight runs in 4.2 innings against the Giants September 30th. He gave up three home runs and has given up 11 homers in his last five games, 29.2 innings. Prior to that Kelly had given up just 10 homers in his first 27 starts, 164.2 innings. Location mistakes may be occurring more frequently due to fatigue factors. He also saw a noticeable dip in velocity his last start. Hopefully this quest for a personal milestone does not result in any long term issues. Still, it's been a very good season for Kelly despite his September slump. 

Corbin Burnes leads the NL in strikeouts with 238 and while not quite as dominant as his Cy Young winning season in 2021, he has set career highs in starts, innings pitched, and the aforementioned strikeouts. Like Woodruff, he suffered one of his worst outings of the year against the D-backs in early September, giving up five runs in 5.2 innings. 

Closing time

Devin Williams has been the closer since Josh Hader was moved at the trade deadline. In 22 games he has nine saves with two blown saves. His  record is 4-4 , ERA is 2.57, 3.35 FIP in 21 innings in that span. The Diamondbacks meanwhile remain without a viable closer right up until the very end of this 2022 campaign.