Four D-backs Prospects Eligible for Prospect Promotion Incentive

These four prospects could earn the D-backs some rewards if they placed well in this year's Rookie of the Year race.

Over the past two weeks, both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline released their respective Top 100 Prospects list. The Arizona Diamondbacks had four prospects land on both lists: Outfielder Corbin Carroll, Shortstop Jordan Lawlar, Outfielder Druw Jones, and Right-Handed Pitcher Brandon Pfaadt. With all four prospects ranked on both Top 100 lists, that makes them eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive. 

The Prospect Promotion Incentive was added to the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, as an attempt to discourage service time manipulation. The most infamous example was when the Chicago Cubs held Kris Bryant in the minor leagues for the first 15 days of the 2015 season to delay his free agency one year. Service time manipulation became a core issue for the MLB Players Association in negotiations, ultimately getting a win there with the PPI. Not only can players receive benefit from a strong rookie season, but also their team's.

A prospect can be eligible for the PPI if they maintain rookie eligibility with less than 60 days service time and are on at least two of MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and ESPN's Top 100 preseason prospects list. Carroll has 38 days from the end of the 2022 season while the other three prospects have yet to debut. Lawlar and Pfaadt will likely debut with Arizona at some point during the 2023 season, the only question is when. Jones, while being eligible, will unlikely to make any lasting impact with the D-backs before the 2025 season. 

Here's how the rewards break down for the Top 3 finishers for Rookie of the Year:

• 1st Place: $750K bonus, full year of service time, team awarded a draft pick after the first round if PPI-eligible prospect
• 2nd Place: $500K bonus, full year of service time, team awarded an international draft pick if PPI-eligible prospect
• 3rd Place: Team awarded an international draft pick if PPI-eligible prospect

As of right now, there is no international draft in place. The negotiations came to a halt last July, when Major League Baseball and the players association could not come to an agreement over how an international draft would be conducted. As a result, teams currently are not awarded those picks.

The rewards don't stop after an eligible prospect's rookie season, as the incentive goes all the way through their pre-arbitration seasons. Players who were PPI eligible their rookie year can earn their team additional draft picks if they can get a Top 3 finish in the MVP or Cy Young vote. Teams can only get a maximum of one PPI pick per draft and three for a single player's career. Going back to the Kris Bryant example, the Cubs would have received two draft picks for his Rookie of the Year and MVP awards in 2015 and 2016.

Carroll will be the main prospect to watch in 2023, as he will have the most opportunities to win the award. MLB Pipeline surveyed various front office executives, player development personnel, and analysts about the Rookie of the Year race and 66% of them picked the D-backs top prospect to win the award. Last season we saw two completely different scenarios play out, the top two spots in the American League went to the frontrunners while in the National League the top five finishers were nowhere near a Top 100 list. The two scenario serve as a reminder that Carroll will still have to earn the award, but if he has the type of season we expect him to have that he will be a tough candidate to beat.

In the event that Carroll is unable to separate himself from the pack, there are some very strong contenders for the award in the National League. Jordan Walker of the St. Louis Cardinals should not be overlooked, as he showcased his impressive talents very well in the Arizona Fall League. Sal Frelick, who is cut from a similar cloth as Carroll, will have similar opportunities to win the award for the Brewers. Those two position player prospects could be running neck-and-neck with the D-backs top prospect for the award. In addition you can never rule out any of the pitching prospects, even though they are typically more volatile early in their careers, to have a big year before teams can figure them out.

As we get into the 2023 season, one of the stories to follow for the season will be if Carroll can follow in the footsteps of 2022 AL Rookie of the Year winner Julio Rodriguez and manage the expectations of a highly-ranked prospect in his rookie season.