Diamondbacks Top 10 Prospects for 2023

The ten best prospects in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization at the start of the 2023 season.

With most of the off-season over and the dust settling, it's time to reveal my list for the D-backs Top 10 prospects in the organization. There has been a major shakeup since I published the Top 30 list in November, in which I account for how the players played the final two months of the 2022 season.

The criteria was based on what type of role I project them to be in the big leagues, then assign a risk grade and when they're likely to be either called up for the first time or find themselves in that role if they already debuted. 

For the Top 10 prospects, you can either scroll down for a brief summary or check out this video:

Diamondbacks Top 10 Prospects: Spring 2023

The best prospects in the D-backs system entering the 2023 season.

No. 1 - OF Corbin Carroll

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Hit 65, Power 55, Run 80, Arm 55, Field 65, Overall 65, ETA: 2023, Risk: Low

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After a shoulder injury wiped out most of his 2021 season, Carroll bounced back in an amazing way. He terrorized opposing pitchers in both Double-A and Triple-A, putting up a combined .307/.425/.611 slash with 24 home runs and 31 stolen bases in 93 games. Fangraphs rated his offense to be 66% and 35% better than the average hitter at his two stops, with a 166 wRC+ in Amarillo and 135 in Reno. That earned a promotion to the big leagues on August 29th. In 32 games, Carroll hit .260/.330/.500 with four home runs and two stolen bases.  

Carroll is a legitimate five-tool player who has a big floor of a leadoff hitter that could put up at least a .350 on-base percentage, hit 20 home runs, steal 30 stolen bases in each season, and play Gold Glove defense at any of the three outfield positions. He has the potential to be the foundational piece to the D-backs current rebuild, the only question is if he can reach that ceiling. 

Carroll will be one of two D-backs prospects to watch in 2023 for the National League Rookie of the Year Race. MLB Pipeline surveyed various front office and player development executives, with 66% of them predicting the D-backs top prospect to win the award. Assuming he is healthy Carroll will get more than enough opportunities to try to win the award, which could net Arizona an additional first round draft pick in the 2024 draft.

No. 2 - RHP Brandon Pfaadt

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Fastball 60, Curveball 45, Slider 60, Changeup 60, Command 60, Overall 60, ETA: 2023, Risk: Medium-Low

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Despite pitching in two of the worst run environments in the minor leagues, Pfaadt dominated both Double-A and Triple-A to win the D-backs Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He has the full arsenal of pitches, but mostly dominates lineups with three pitches that flash plus potential between his fastball, slider, and changeup. With a classic starter's build (6'4" 228), repertoire, and proven ability to handle a major league workload, Pfaadt is a very safe rotation projection for the D-backs in the long term.

His arsenal starts with a fastball that sits 92-94 and tops out at 96, that plays very well at the top of the strike zone and his ability to command the pitch. His slider and changeup work to the glove and arm sides of the plate, keeping hitters off-balance, and he's willing to use both pitches against both right-handed and left-handed hitters alike. It was also a big reason he was able to maintain strikeout rates above 30% in both Double-A Amarillo and Triple-A Reno with extremely good run prevention numbers.

Like Carroll, Pfaadt is a consensus Top 100 prospect and will likely be eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive should he make the Opening Day roster. However he faces stiff competition for the final starting rotation spot this spring, although the lure of a first round pick may factor into that decision. If he doesn't make the Opening Day roster, I still anticipate he'll be one of the first arms called up from the minors to fill holes in the rotation this season.

No. 3 - SS Jordan Lawlar

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Hit 60, Power 55, Run 60, Arm 50, Field 50, Overall 60, Risk: Medium, ETA: 2023

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Lawlar is the D-backs first round pick from the 2021 Draft and is coming off a very good first full season with the organization that started in Low-A and finished in Double-A. His advanced feel to hit to hit is evident, as he covers the strike zone very well with a short and compact stroke that produces line drives all over the field. Lawlar feels he's at his best when he simplifies his approach to "see ball, hit ball". At his peak he could be a 20 home run, 30 stolen base player as an offensive-minded shortstop.

His defense at short is still a work in progress, as he'll need to tighten up the errors and misplays in order to stick at the position. There is enough ability to stick at the position, as the D-backs really need Lawlar to hold that position down for the foreseeable future. I believe he'll work on those issues, as he displays a level of maturity well beyond his listed age of 20.

No. 4 - OF Druw Jones

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Hit 50, Power 60, Run 70, Arm 65, Field 65, Overall 60, ETA: 2025, Risk: Very High

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Jones was the D-backs top selection in the 2022 draft, but did not play after suffering a shoulder injury during batting practice with the organization's complex affiliate. The injury required surgery and could impact his availability at the start of Spring Training. Given the organization's past record with these injuries, Jones should have a strong chance of not only fully recovering but also continuing to progress as normal.

With future upside matched by no other prospect in the organization, the D-backs are hoping Jones will be one of the foundational pieces on the next contending roster. His potential ceiling is a middle of the order bat who can produce 30 home runs, 30 steals, and drive in 100. His ascent through the minor leagues will depend on how comfortable he faces off against Low-A and High-A pitching. However don't expect Jones to make a big impact in the big leagues until at least the 2025 season.

No. 5 - RHP Drey Jameson

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Fastball 70, Curveball 50, Slider 70, Changeup 40, Command 45, Overall 55, ETA: 2023, Risk: Medium

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Jameson has the most impressive raw stuff of all the starting pitcher prospects in the organization and has a very good chance of sticking long term. Jameson is a freak athlete and carries himself with more than enough confidence to handle pitching in the big leagues. The only question is if he's starting or closing games long term.

His arsenal starts with a 4-seamer that is in the 95-98 range, but can top out at 100 MPH if used in short bursts. He also recently learned a 2-seamer from former D-back Matt Peacock and has developed that into a very good weapon. He complements his fastballs with a slider that generates whiffs when tunneling off the heater, a changeup that has a similar movement profile as his 2-seamer, and a seldom-used curveball as an early in the count type offering.

Command is the biggest thing holding Jameson back at this stage of his career, but given his explosive arsenal and strong work ethic he has a shot to develop into a top of the rotation pitcher.

No. 6 - RHP Ryne Nelson

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Fastball 70, Curveball 50, Slider 60, Changeup 50, Command 45, Overall 55, ETA: 2023, Risk: Medium

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The D-backs gamble on Nelson appears to have paid off as the former second rounder looks like a future middle of the rotation arm. His fastball sits in the 95-98 MPH range early in games with three solid secondary pitches. However his stuff tends to drop quicker in games, which limits his potential upside in the long term either as a closer or a "Five and Dive" starter.

The key for Nelson to stay in the rotation long term will be improving his conditioning so he can maintain his best stuff 80+ pitches into a start. His command could also improve to make his power arsenal even more effective. When he has his best stuff, he can bully hitters with a very lively fastball early in counts then finish them off with his slider and changeup. 

D-backs pitching coach Brent Strom identified two areas of improvement this off-season: to remove the "hump" out of his curveball and add more velocity to his slider to add more deception to those pitches. If Nelson can make those two adjustments while improving his durability in starts, he'll be a key arm in the D-backs rotation for years to come.

No. 7 - LHP Blake Walston

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Fastball 50, Curveball 60, Slider 60, Changeup 55, Command 45, Overall 50, ETA: 2023, Risk: Medium-High

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Walston continued to make steady progress in 2022, pitching his way into Double-A Amarillo. While the surface numbers looked bad, the 21-year-old starter was able to put together an impressive final ten starts to close out the season.

A huge part of his development over the second half of the season was his ability to command the slider. It has developed into a huge strikeout weapon when thrown to the glove side of the plate. With an average heater and three above-average secondaries, Walston looks the part of a #3/4 starter for the D-backs.

He'll spend much of 2023 with Triple-A Reno and could be a September call-up with a good season.

No. 8 - RHP Slade Cecconi

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Fastball 55, Curveball 45, Slider 60, Changeup 45, Command 50, Overall 50, ETA: 2023, Risk: Medium-High

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After a disappointing 2021 season, Cecconi rebounded in 2022 to show that he's a capable starter. He handled the tough assignment of Double-A Amarillo and put up above-average run prevention numbers, significantly reducing his walk rate without heavily impacting his strikeout rate. 

He'll open up 2023 with Triple-A Reno and wait for an opportunity behind some of the other arms on the list. He fits the profile of a solid #4 starter with a fairly average repertoire and could be a potential bullpen conversion candidate if they have a high hit rate on their starting pitcher prospects. The latest he'll arrive to the big leagues will be September.

No. 9 - RHP Landon Sims

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Fastball 70, Slider 70, Changeup 45, Command 45, Overall 50, ETA: 2025, Risk: Very High

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A former college closer turned starter, Sims made only three starts before suffering an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. The D-backs elected to gamble on Sims' upside, knowing they had the floor of a potential closer and the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. 

Sims features two plus-plus pitches between a high-spin 4-seam fastball and the best slider in the system. It is possible for that he could develop into a capable starter with those two pitches being a high percentage of his repertoire as Jacob deGrom has proven the past couple years, but it's very unlikely. If anything gets in the way of the supplemental first rounder's ability to build up an innings count, the team should move him to relief and expedite him to the big league roster.

No. 10 - 1B Ivan Melendez

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Hit 40, Power 70, Run 40, Defense 55, Arm 50, Overall 50, ETA: 2024, Risk: High

The Hispanic Titanic set an NCAA record with 32 home runs on the way to winning the 2022 Golden Spikes Award. He combines his incredible raw power with a solid batting eye, giving the 22-year-old a rare combination of power and walks. He also has the potential to be a very good defender at first base due to solid footwork and an accurate throwing arm.

The D-backs famously hit on a Texas first baseman who set records in home runs with a strong work ethic and concerns about handling velocity. Melendez may not end up having the same career as Paul Goldschmidt, but their similarities are worth noting.