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MLB insider predicts SF Giants will sign Matt Chapman or Blake Snell

MLB insider Jon Heyman believes the SF Giants are going to land at least one of free agent third baseman Matt Chapman and ace Blake Snell.

Marc Delucchi

MLB insider predicts SF Giants will sign Matt Chapman or Blake Snell
MLB insider predicts SF Giants will sign Matt Chapman or Blake Snell /
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Fans around the league are anxiously awaiting the signing of the top remaining free agents, mostly represented by superagent Scott Boras. The SF Giants have been tied to the biggest names all offseason, already landing center fielder Jung Hoo Lee (#9-ranked free agent) and designated hitter Jorge Soler (#13-ranked free agent). However, they may not be done yet. During an appearance on "Foul Territory," MLB insider Jon Heyman noted that the Giants remain in contact with Boras and predicted they will land at least one of two big names.

"If I were to guess today, I would say Giants," Heyman said when asked to predict Matt Chapman's landing spot. "They're still talking to these guys. I know they said they don't expect to sign anybody, but I think the Giants are going to sign somebody. Whether it's [Blake] Snell or Chapman or both of them."

This is far from the first time a prominent insider has tied the Giants to Boras' top remaining free agent clients. ESPN's Jeff Passan made a nearly identical prediction in the first week of January. Earlier this week, Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle reported that the Giants were having internal conversations about the two players, citing one source that placed the odds of signing one over the other at an even 50-50.

Chapman has been consistently tied to the Giants throughout the offseason while Snell has seemed like an obvious fit, especially since the Giants traded multiple veteran starters this offseason.

While Chapman became a household name as a star with the Oakland A's early in his career, playing for Giants manager Bob Melvin, he remained a top third baseman with the Toronto Blue Jays. His offensive numbers have taken a step back over the past few seasons, but he remains elite defensively and has graded out well by Statcast's advanced metrics, helping him remain a player worth 2-4.5 WAR per season depending on the calculation method.

Even with his dip in production, though, Chapman is one of the few power-hitters in MLB who Statcast projects to have hit significantly more home runs at Oracle Park than he actually did in each of the past three seasons (86 versus 71). The opposite is true of nearly every other power hitter in the league.

Snell is coming off a Cy Young season with the Giants division-rival in San Diego. However, the two-time Cy Young winner partially remains unsigned because he has never strung together elite seasons in back-to-back years. Snell has averaged a 3.02 ERA with 186 strikeouts in 143 innings pitched per season over the past six years. While that is clearly a high-quality pitcher, it's also not ace-level production.

Still, the Giants projected rotation currently includes one pitcher who has ever thrown more than 90 innings in a MLB season (Logan Webb). Pairing Webb with Snell would give Melvin one of the best 1-2 punches in the league atop his rotation, and would give the pitching staff an incredible ceiling between top pitching prospect Kyle Harrison and the eventual returns of veteran starters Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray.

SF Giants have come to know the offseason rumor cycle well over the past few years. Jon Heyman, especially, has been at the center of generating plenty of hope and excitement about potential moves that never came to fruition. From Arson Judge to his recent J.D. Martinez report, Heyman is far from the most trustworthy insider in the industry. However, his comments reiterate that the organization is in contact with Boras regarding his top clients. Maybe Matt Chapman and Blake Snell will be top free agents that actually end up landing in San Francisco.

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Marc Delucchi
MARC DELUCCHI

Marc Delucchi (he/they/she) serves as the Managing Editor at Giants Baseball Insider, leading their SF Giants coverage. As a freelance journalist, he has previously covered the San Francisco Giants at Around the Foghorn and McCovey Chronicles. He also currently contributes to Niners Nation, Golden State of Mind, and Baseball Prospectus. He has previously been featured in several other publications, including SFGate, ProFootballRumors, Niners Wire, GrandStand Central, Call to the Pen, and Just Baseball. Over his journalistic career, Marc has conducted investigations into how one prep baseball player lost a college opportunity during the pandemic (Baseball Prospectus) and the rampant mistreatment of players at the University of Hawaii football program under former head coach Todd Graham (SFGate). He has also broken dozens of news stories around professional baseball, primarily around the SF Giants organization, including the draft signing of Kyle Harrison, injuries and promotions to top prospects like Heliot Ramos, and trade details in the Kris Bryant deal. Marc received a Bachelor's degree from Kenyon College with a major in economics and a minor in Spanish. During his time in college, he conducted a summer research project attempting to predict the future minor-league performance of NCAA hitters, worked as a data analyst for the school's Women's basketball team, and worked as a play-by-play announcer/color commentator for the basketball, baseball, softball, and soccer teams. He also worked as an amateur baseball scout with the Collegiate Baseball Scouting Network (later renamed Evolution Metrix), scouting high school and college players for three draft cycles. For tips and inquiries, feel free to reach out to Marc directly on Twitter or via email (delucchimarc@gmail.com).

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