Why Has Gibson Struggled the Second Time Through the Order?

Philadelphia Phillies starter Kyle Gibson has pitched very poorly the second time through the order, but there is good reason to believe he can turn things around.

© Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

When Bryson Stott smacked his first career walk-off home run to give the Philadelphia Phillies the win on Sunday afternoon, Kyle Gibson surely must have breathed a sigh of relief.

Gibson had struggled that day, allowing five runs in just over three innings. His ERA jumped from 3.83 before the game to 4.40 afterwards.

Those numbers, however, do not tell the full story of Gibson's outing. It's easy to look at the box score and say the veteran right-hander struggled against the Los Angeles Angels, but the truth is a little more nuanced than that.

Through the first three innings on Sunday, Gibson was dealing. He struck out three Angels and allowed just two baserunners, one of whom he erased by inducing a double play.

J.T. Realmuto, with a strong throw from one knee, caught the only other baserunner stealing, and so Gibson had faced the minimum nine batters through three innings.

It was not until the fourth that things started to unravel. All of a sudden, Gibson became very hittable.

Matt Duffy, Shohei Ohtani, and Mike Trout — all of whom Gibson had easily taken care of in the first inning — reached base one after another. With the bases loaded, Gibson gave up two consecutive RBI singles and did not record an out until the sixth batter of the inning. He would be taken out of the game two batters later.

The Angels lineup were seeing his pitches much better the second time through the order. He got their hitters to swing and miss seven times in the first three innings, but he did not record a single whiff in the fourth.

Moreover, Gibson had not allowed a single batted ball with an expected batting average (xBA) higher than .400 (per Statcast) through the first three innings. In the fourth, he allowed four batted balls with an xBA higher than .870.

The Phillies TV broadcast team, which included Tom McCarthy, John Kruk, and Michael Schmidt, began to talk about Gibson's season-long struggles the second time through the batting order. Indeed, Sunday was not the first time Gibson got into trouble when facing hitters for the second time. 

Kyle Gibson hands the ball to new manager Rob Thomson after getting roughed up in the fourth inning on Sunday / © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into Sunday, Gibson had a 6.75 ERA the second time through the order this season. Opposing hitters had a .325/.378/.450 line against him the second time through. After his fourth-inning meltdown against the Angels, those numbers got even worse. His ERA sits at 8.85 and his triple slash line against is .356/.408/.483.

In comparison, his numbers the first and third time through the order are significantly better.

• First time through: 1.32 ERA, .188/.212/.292, 27.2 IP
• Third time through: 3.72 ERA, .194/.326/.306, 9.2 IP

Gibson's success the third time through the order is a good sign. There isn't any good explanation for why a pitcher would be better the third time through the order — evidence shows batters tend to get better against a pitcher each time they see him in a game — so Gibson's good numbers the third time through suggest his awful numbers the second time through are a bit of a fluke. 

On April 19 in Colorado, for example, Gibson allowed four hits and three runs the second time through, only to turn around and pitch two more scoreless innings while facing the Rockies lineup for a third time. 

Exactly one month later, Gibson allowed five hits and two runs while facing the San Diego Padres lineup for the second time. He then pitched masterfully the third time through the Padres batting order.

Gibson's underlying numbers the second time through the order are also a positive sign. While his ERA sits at 8.85, he has a 3.53 FIP and a 3.88 xFIP. 

His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) the second time through is .417 while his left on-base percentage (LOB%) is 51.8%. For those unfamiliar with these metrics, that is a shockingly high BABIP and a shockingly low LOB%. Both of those numbers are expected to regress towards Gibson's career averages: a .308 BABIP and 71.9% LOB%.

It's very unlikely Gibson will continue to allow so many baserunners the second time through the order and that he will let so many of those baserunners to score.

Moreover, while Gibson's strikeout rate and walk rate are much better the first time through the order this season, his numbers the second time through the order are actually closer to his career averages. In other words, while his strikeout and walk numbers the second time through look concerning, they really aren't — Gibson has just been extra dominant the first time through the order this season.

Kyle Gibson dominating the New York Mets the first time through the order on Mother's Day / © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Gibson's underlying numbers and his good performance the third time through the order indicate he will soon regress to the mean when facing batters a second time. But that's not to say his struggles so far have been entirely undeserved. 

Opposing hitters have been making much better contact against Gibson the second time through the order, like the Angels did on Sunday.

A whopping 30.6% of balls put in play against Gibson the second time through have been line drives. Line drives are far more likely to lead to hits than ground balls or fly balls. He has also allowed a 34.2% hard hit rate the second time through according to Baseball Info Solutions. The first time through the order, his line drive rate is just 15.7% and his hard hit rate is just 24.3%.

The third time through the order, in a much smaller sample size, Gibson's line drive rate is just as high (30.8%), but his hard hit rate drops to 14.8%. 

This trend is concerning — more solid contacts leads to more hits — but Gibson's career numbers are somewhat reassuring. Throughout his ten major league seasons, his line drive rates have been almost identical each time through the order, and his hard hit rate typically only goes up a little bit each time through.

It is perfectly normal for a pitcher to allow higher quality contact the second time through the order as opposing batters adjust to his arsenal, but based on his track record it is very hard to believe Gibson will continue to allow twice as many line drives and so much more hard contact the second time through. 

Kyle Gibson pitched masterfully against the Oakland Athletics in his 2022 season debut / © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia's coaching staff would be wise to pay close attention to Gibson's performance the second time through the order, but as of right now, it's too early to get seriously worried. His strikeout and walk numbers are promising, and his BABIP and LOB% should regress towards his career averages. The quality of contact Gibson is allowing is a bit alarming, and it is something to keep an eye on, but this has not been a problem for him in the past, and hopefully it will not be a problem in the future. 

With a shaky bullpen and an inconsistent offense, the Phillies are heavily relying on their starting rotation to pitch well this season. Gibson will need to be better the second time through the order, and his long track record of success suggests he can do just that.

More From SI's Inside The Phillies:

1. How Mike Trout Will Join the Phillies
2. Andrew Painter is Off to a Historic Start
3. Could The Phillies Soon Be Playing in Wawa Park?
4. 18-Year-Old Phillies Prospect is Making History
5. How did Philadelphia end up with Citizens Bank Park?
6. How the Phillie Phanatic Came to be America's Favorite Sports Mascot
7. This Unlikely Draft Pick Could be the Final Piece in the Phillies Next Blockbuster Trade
8. "The Family Was More Nervous Than Him," Stott’s Relatives on Debut
9. Picking the Phillies' All-Time Single Season Lineup
10. Drawing Comparisons to Harper, Phillies Prospect Wilson is Heating Up

---

Make sure to follow Inside the Phillies on Substack and Twitter!