Should the Twins break the bank to sign a top free agent now? Maybe not

Go big now? It might be better to wait until the trade deadline.

Minnesota Twins executive chair Joe Pohlad has been battered from pillar to post since his comments last week that the organization will not be in contention for one of the major free agents yet to sign this offseason.

"The players that are out there right now, that, probably, a bunch of fans are talking about, we're not in the market for those players," Pohlad said, adding that the Twins are still in the market for other additions, which will likely come with more modest price tags. 

Pohlad's admission, a surprisingly frank one for a baseball executive in a wary industry, was met with disappointment from Twins fans hoping their team was in with a shot of signing the likes of Cody Bellinger (who has re-joined the Cubs) or adding another ace arm like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery.

After a season in which the Twins ended their two-decade postseason win drought, fans were hoping for greater ambition at Target Field as there's an opportunity to capitalize on a blossoming batting lineup, a well-above-average starting rotation and one of the best bullpens in the league.

Instead what's happened is the Twins have traded Jorge Polanco to Seattle for a No. 4/5 pitcher in Anthony DeSclafani, bullpen arm Justin Topa, and top-100 prospect Gabriel Gonzalez, as well as bringing in 38-year-old veteran first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana on a one-year deal. They've also now traded for outfielder Manuel Margot. 

Meanwhile the Twins have lost Sonny Gray, one of last year's best pitchers, to free agency along with another dependable arm in Kenta Maeda.

But here's the thing: The AL Central is not good. The Twins are comfortable favorites to win the division this season with the Tigers, Guardians, Royals and White Sox all at various stages of rebuilds/ineptitude.

As fun as seeing the Twins make a big free agent splash would be, you can definitely see the argument that it would be more prudent to wait before going all-in on this season.

A starting rotation led by Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan followed by Bailey Ober, who will ideally take another step up this season, and Chris Paddack, with Louie Varland and DeSclafani at the back end of the rotation, should be able to get the Twins to the top of the Central come mid-July, particularly with the Twins' deep, powerful bullpen and strong batting line.

So rather than getting caught in a bidding war for Montgomery and Snell now, the Twins could instead have a much wider pool to pick from via a trade ahead of the July 30 deadline, using some of their prospects to bring in a top arm or a big bat from a struggling team.

Oct 4, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins players celebrate after defeating the Toronto Blue Jays during game two of the Wildcard series for the 2023 MLB playoffs at Target Field / Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

While Twins fans have complained about the team's lack of spending in comparison to larger-market rivals, they entered the current offseason with even less certainty than usual over revenue due to the ongoing woes of Diamond Sports Group, which has seen the team make lower-than-expected amounts from its TV deal with Bally Sports North.

Even so, it's not like the Twins have been timid in recent off-seasons: They shocked baseball by signing Carlos Correa to three-year deal in 2022 and then tied him down to a record six-year, $200 million contract last winter.

They have mostly traded well in recent years, bringing in Ryan in 2020 from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for half a season of Nelson Cruz.

And then there's the blockbuster trade that sent Luis Arraez to Miami in exchange for Lopez, who has become the bona fide ace that led the Twins in the playoffs last season. The Twins then acted quickly to sign Lopez to a four-year, $73.5 million extension that suddenly looks a steal.

Let's not forget, too, that while a flashy, splashy free agent signing is exciting, far more important – and likely more costly – for the Twins will be setting the money aside to secure its future.

That means getting Royce Lewis to commit to a long-term contract.