Twins didn't invest big money but can still hit the jackpot in 2024

With Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Max Kepler, there's a significant amount of risk and reward next season.

Joe Pohlad's comments earlier this week indicated that the Minnesota Twins aren't making a big move to improve their roster. With the payroll cut from $154 million last year to $123 million this season, it limited the front office on what they could do to improve a roster that won its first playoff game in nearly two decades in 2023. 

Rather than investing in more talent and security, the Twins appear to be placing a significant bet on uber-talented players staying healthy in 2024. 

The middle of the Twins lineup will be the ultimate slot machine this summer as Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Carlos Correa are massive risk versus reward players. 

It starts with Lewis, who hit .309/.372/.548 with 15 homers and 52 RBI last season. If posting those numbers coming off his second ACL tear in 15 months wasn't impressive enough, his line also had a historical significance that matched up with greats such as Mike Trout and Albert Pujols during their rookie seasons.

But while fans rightfully will forecast Lewis to ascend to stardom, there are a couple of things that could hold him back.

Lewis has just 280 plate appearances in his career and pitchers are just starting to figure out his tendencies. With an offseason to dissect his approach, Lewis could have an adjustment period early in the year that could lead to a slow start.

There's also the injury issue which saw Lewis miss over a month with an oblique injury and the final week of the regular season with a hamstring strain. With injuries piling up, Lewis may need to tone down his style of play to last a full 162 games but the 24-year-old sounds determined to work harder this season.

“It's a hard game, and you have to be so focused and stay refined,” Lewis told MLB.com's Dawn Klemish. “If you don't feel like you have anything to prove or you get too cocky, this game will humble you and take you right out. I want to be in this game as long as I can. And with that being said, I’m going to work as hard as I possibly can.”

This sounds similar to what Twins fans have heard about Buxton, who was limited to designated hitter duty last season. Buxton hit .207/.294/.438 with 17 home runs and 42 RBI and was limited to 85 games due to his troublesome knee. 

Twins fans also know what Buxton can do when healthy, however, and is one year removed from his first career All-Star appearance. There's evidence that suggests Buxton could be even better after hitting  .306/.358/.647 with 19 bombs, 32 RBI and nine stolen bases over 61 games in the 2021 season and he believes his return to center field will help him get back to that form.

"[I'm] excited now that I know I'm not DH'ing," Buxton said earlier this month. "That's always exciting to be normal and go out there and be what you were doing before all the injuries."

A return to center field won't magically help Buxton return to putting up Barry Bonds numbers but there were also signs of improvement last season including a career-high 10.1% walk rate and a 14.6% barrel rate that ranked in the 90th percentile of major league hitters.

If Buxton can stay on the field, that should mean better things for Kepler, who revived his career by hitting .306/.377/.549 with 12 homers and 36 RBI in the second half of last season.

Kepler's breakout second half should excite Twins fans but also bring a layer of caution. Before Kepler broke out, he was on the verge of being designated for assignment, drawing the ire of Rocco Baldelli for missing a double steal in Tampa and hitting .188/.262/.361 with six homers and 15 RBI on June 9.

Then again, Kepler's breakout could have coincided with a return to health as he battled right knee soreness and a left hamstring injury over the first two months. It also could have been due to new restrictions on the shift, which Kepler admitted had a role in his decline after his stellar 2019 season.

"When you see three people occupying the side where your strength is, then you kind of try to play around it, whether it's going the other way, thinking about a bunt," Kepler said last February via Dan Hayes of The Athletic. "But it takes you away from your strength."

That leaves Correa, who battled plantar fasciitis through one of the worst offensive years of his career. Correa posted a career-low in on-base percentage (.312) and batting average (.230) and had his worst full-season slugging percentage (.399) last season but rebounded to slash .409/.458/.546 with three doubles and four RBI in six playoff games.

Correa's playoff performance came after he felt "a pop" in his foot during a series in Cincinnati last September. After a week of rest he looked like the player who hit .291/.366/.467 with 22 homers and 64 RBI during the 2022 season.

Correa also changed his approach at the plate this offseason to deliver "a more direct compact swing" and hitting coach David Popkins noticed a big difference during the opening days of spring training.

"I haven't really seen him hit balls like that in a long time," Twins hitting coach David Popkins told Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. "I don't think I've ever seen him clear the batter's eye. He hit one way over the batter's eye."

If each of these players hits their ceiling, the rest of the lineup could cash in. Eddy Julien and Matt Wallner are coming off tremendous rookie seasons and other players such as Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana could fill out the bottom half of the lineup to form one of the best in baseball.

It's a scenario where the Twins could strike it rich and reap more benefits when top prospect Brooks Lee arrives in the major leagues. It's not the spending spree that fans wanted but it's proof the Twins can still hit the jackpot and be real contenders in 2024.